Gold edges lower on continued post-election fallout, higher interest rate expectations Gold falls on Friday as Donald Trump’s re-election continues to impact the precious metal. This reverses a short-term bounce following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%. Gold (XAU/USD) edges down to trade around the $2,690 mark on Friday, extending the short-term bearish mini trend it has been in since it rolled over on Halloween. The decline comes amid market expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies will be positive for the US Dollar (USD), as higher tariffs and tax cuts could keep interest rates high, supporting foreign capital inflows into the US currency. This, in turn is expected to pressure Gold lower since it is mainly priced and traded in USD. Gold further dips after the preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to 73 in November from 70.5 in October, and above expectations of 71. This is likely to contribute to lifting expectations for interest rates in the future which is negative for Gold, a non-interest bearing asset.

Gold edges lower on continued post-election fallout, higher interest rate expectations Gold falls on Friday as Donald Trump’s re-election continues to impact the precious metal. This reverses a short-term bounce following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%. Gold (XAU/USD) edges down to trade around the $2,690 mark on Friday, extending the short-term bearish mini trend it has been in since it rolled over on Halloween. The decline comes amid market expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies will be positive for the US Dollar (USD), as higher tariffs and tax cuts could keep interest rates high, supporting foreign capital inflows into the US currency. This, in turn is expected to pressure Gold lower since it is mainly priced and traded in USD. Gold further dips after the preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to 73 in November from 70.5 in October, and above expectations of 71. This is likely to contribute to lifting expectations for interest rates in the future which is negative for Gold, a non-interest bearing asset.

If Trump enacts his campaign pledges of lower taxes and higher tariffs, the expected effect on the economy is that this would push up prices by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. The Fed would have little choice but to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than is currently anticipated. The October CPI report due on Wednesday will be the first post-election test for rate cut bets following the repricing from the ‘Trump trade’. In September, the headline CPI rate fell to 2.4% y/y. However, it is expected to have edged up to 2.5 y/y in October. The month-on-month rate is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the prior month. Core CPI is also forecast to have ticked up, rising from 3.3% to 3.4% y/y in October.

If Trump enacts his campaign pledges of lower taxes and higher tariffs, the expected effect on the economy is that this would push up prices by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. The Fed would have little choice but to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than is currently anticipated. The October CPI report due on Wednesday will be the first post-election test for rate cut bets following the repricing from the ‘Trump trade’. In September, the headline CPI rate fell to 2.4% y/y. However, it is expected to have edged up to 2.5 y/y in October. The month-on-month rate is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the prior month. Core CPI is also forecast to have ticked up, rising from 3.3% to 3.4% y/y in October.

Action Forex HomeTutorialsTrading Easy to grasp, difficult to master. Forex and FX are interchangeable abbreviations for Foreign Exchange, which is a term used to refer to the global currency markets. As complex as these markets are, currencies are probably the easiest of all the asset classes for beginners to get to grips with. Even people who have never traded before will have a basic understanding of what currency trading involves. After all, everyone is familiar with using their national currency, and many have had the experience of converting this currency into another one of a different value when travelling. This, in a nutshell, is what currency trading is all about. Currencies differ in value and these differences are constantly changing; buying an undervalued currency as it begins to rise yields profits, selling an over-valued currency as it begins to fall also yields profits. Conversely, selling in the former example and buying in the latter will cause you to incur losses. Simple enough, right? Yes, but learning to discern the influences that cause these fluctuations, and being able to act upon them in a timely and consistently profitable way, that’s the real challenge of trading Forex. Exchange rates explained Exchange rates are the relative values between currencies that belong to different countries or economic regions. When you are presented with an exchange rate, say for EUR/USD, you are being quoted the value of one currency in relation to the other (in this case the euro against the US dollar). This is why you see two currencies in an exchange rate quote but only one figure; the value of one is determined by how much of it you can buy with the other. It makes no sense to think in terms of absolute values when it comes to currencies as their values are interdependent. This is one of the main differences between trading Forex and trading equities or commodities. The first currency in every pair is called the base currency, this is the one that you are being given the value of. It is also the one on which you are performing the action of either buying or selling when trading Forex. The second currency in the pair is the quote or counter currency, the figure quoted in an exchange rate is denominated in this currency. Essentially when you see an exchange rate you are being informed what the base currency is worth in terms of the quote currency. So when looking at an exchange rate for EUR/USD you are being quoted what the euro is worth in US dollars, or more accurately how many US dollars are required to purchase 1 euro. So a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.33 means that 1 euro is worth 1 dollar and 33 cents, or that $1.33 is required to purchase 1 euro. Currencies are always quoted in this way, were it not for this convention 1 euro would just be worth 1 euro, and that would tell us nothing about anything. When EUR/USD rises, this means that the euro is growing higher and/or the dollar is getting weaker. As a Forex trader you can position yourself in different ways, taking advantage of any eventuality. You can buy, or go long on EUR/USD when you think the euro is likely to rise, or when the US dollar is likely to fall. You can also sell, or short EUR/USD when you foresee that the euro is due to drop in value, or when you think the US dollar is about to rise. A closer look at currency pairs All currencies are given a three letter abbreviation known as that currency’s ISO code, in most cases the first two letters refer to the country, and the third letter refers to the name of the currency in question. The most commonly traded currencies are known as the majors. These are: The US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the Great British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The major pairs all involve USD being paired with each of the other major currencies listed above. Major Currency Pairs EUR/USD (Euro-zone/ United States) USD/JPY (United States/ Japan) GBP/USD (United Kingdom/ United States) USD/CHF (United States/ Switzerland) USD/CAD (United States/ Canada) AUD/USD (Australia/ United States) NZD/USD: (New Zealand/ United States) Pairs that do not feature the US dollar as either base or quote are known as the cross pairs, or crosses. The main crosses consist of any of the major currencies listed above (except, of course, USD) crossed with each other (the most common cross pairs are those which feature the euro, pound sterling, or yen). One thing to keep in mind is that the euro is always the base currency in any pair. It’s easy enough to reverse an exchange rate though, if you need to. So, for instance, if you want to find out the value of USD/EUR (how many euros it takes to purchase one US dollar) all you have to do is divide 1 by the EUR/USD exchange rate (1/1.33 = 0.75). In this example one US dollar can

Action Forex HomeTutorialsTrading Easy to grasp, difficult to master. Forex and FX are interchangeable abbreviations for Foreign Exchange, which is a term used to refer to the global currency markets. As complex as these markets are, currencies are probably the easiest of all the asset classes for beginners to get to grips with. Even people who have never traded before will have a basic understanding of what currency trading involves. After all, everyone is familiar with using their national currency, and many have had the experience of converting this currency into another one of a different value when travelling. This, in a nutshell, is what currency trading is all about. Currencies differ in value and these differences are constantly changing; buying an undervalued currency as it begins to rise yields profits, selling an over-valued currency as it begins to fall also yields profits. Conversely, selling in the former example and buying in the latter will cause you to incur losses. Simple enough, right? Yes, but learning to discern the influences that cause these fluctuations, and being able to act upon them in a timely and consistently profitable way, that’s the real challenge of trading Forex. Exchange rates explained Exchange rates are the relative values between currencies that belong to different countries or economic regions. When you are presented with an exchange rate, say for EUR/USD, you are being quoted the value of one currency in relation to the other (in this case the euro against the US dollar). This is why you see two currencies in an exchange rate quote but only one figure; the value of one is determined by how much of it you can buy with the other. It makes no sense to think in terms of absolute values when it comes to currencies as their values are interdependent. This is one of the main differences between trading Forex and trading equities or commodities. The first currency in every pair is called the base currency, this is the one that you are being given the value of. It is also the one on which you are performing the action of either buying or selling when trading Forex. The second currency in the pair is the quote or counter currency, the figure quoted in an exchange rate is denominated in this currency. Essentially when you see an exchange rate you are being informed what the base currency is worth in terms of the quote currency. So when looking at an exchange rate for EUR/USD you are being quoted what the euro is worth in US dollars, or more accurately how many US dollars are required to purchase 1 euro. So a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.33 means that 1 euro is worth 1 dollar and 33 cents, or that $1.33 is required to purchase 1 euro. Currencies are always quoted in this way, were it not for this convention 1 euro would just be worth 1 euro, and that would tell us nothing about anything. When EUR/USD rises, this means that the euro is growing higher and/or the dollar is getting weaker. As a Forex trader you can position yourself in different ways, taking advantage of any eventuality. You can buy, or go long on EUR/USD when you think the euro is likely to rise, or when the US dollar is likely to fall. You can also sell, or short EUR/USD when you foresee that the euro is due to drop in value, or when you think the US dollar is about to rise. A closer look at currency pairs All currencies are given a three letter abbreviation known as that currency’s ISO code, in most cases the first two letters refer to the country, and the third letter refers to the name of the currency in question. The most commonly traded currencies are known as the majors. These are: The US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the Great British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The major pairs all involve USD being paired with each of the other major currencies listed above. Major Currency Pairs EUR/USD (Euro-zone/ United States) USD/JPY (United States/ Japan) GBP/USD (United Kingdom/ United States) USD/CHF (United States/ Switzerland) USD/CAD (United States/ Canada) AUD/USD (Australia/ United States) NZD/USD: (New Zealand/ United States) Pairs that do not feature the US dollar as either base or quote are known as the cross pairs, or crosses. The main crosses consist of any of the major currencies listed above (except, of course, USD) crossed with each other (the most common cross pairs are those which feature the euro, pound sterling, or yen). One thing to keep in mind is that the euro is always the base currency in any pair. It’s easy enough to reverse an exchange rate though, if you need to. So, for instance, if you want to find out the value of USD/EUR (how many euros it takes to purchase one US dollar) all you have to do is divide 1 by the EUR/USD exchange rate (1/1.33 = 0.75). In this example one US dollar can

Gold declines as Trump’s win reduces political risk; focus on potential inflationary policies. US Dollar recovery pressures Bullion despite lower Treasury yields. Powell signals gradual rate adjustments, leaving Fed’s future path open amid economic strength. Gold prices had fallen on Friday as the Greenback stages a recovery despite falling US Treasury yields. Traders continued to digest Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, and they reduced their exposure on the so-called “Trump trade” due to uncertainty over tariffs. The XAU/USD trades at $2,688, down over 0.67%. US equities extended their gains, shrugging off election jitters, which were the main drivers of the Bullion’s advance. However, risk over US politics has faded, and market participants would look toward Trump’s policies.

Gold declines as Trump’s win reduces political risk; focus on potential inflationary policies. US Dollar recovery pressures Bullion despite lower Treasury yields. Powell signals gradual rate adjustments, leaving Fed’s future path open amid economic strength. Gold prices had fallen on Friday as the Greenback stages a recovery despite falling US Treasury yields. Traders continued to digest Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, and they reduced their exposure on the so-called “Trump trade” due to uncertainty over tariffs. The XAU/USD trades at $2,688, down over 0.67%. US equities extended their gains, shrugging off election jitters, which were the main drivers of the Bullion’s advance. However, risk over US politics has faded, and market participants would look toward Trump’s policies.

If you’re a new trader trying to make sense of forex market movements and making money while you’re at it, the whole experience can be exciting and overwhelming at the same time. This is why it is important to work on your trading psychology from the very start of your trading endeavor. Perhaps one of the most important things to remember when you’re starting out is to just take it easy. It can be tempting to try all technical indicators all at once or trade every single top-tier news release out there, but you might run the risk of overdoing it and feeling burned out later on. Stick with what you’re comfortable with and just add what you learn along the way. Another thing to keep in mind is to know yourself. Make sure you come up with a trading strategy that is in tune with your personality and your risk preferences. For instance, if you thrive in fast-paced movements and if you’re comfortable with managing many open positions at once, then you could look into scalp trading techniques. On the other hand, if you get easily stressed with quick price movements and would rather just check your charts every now and then, swing trading might be better for you.

If you’re a new trader trying to make sense of forex market movements and making money while you’re at it, the whole experience can be exciting and overwhelming at the same time. This is why it is important to work on your trading psychology from the very start of your trading endeavor. Perhaps one of the most important things to remember when you’re starting out is to just take it easy. It can be tempting to try all technical indicators all at once or trade every single top-tier news release out there, but you might run the risk of overdoing it and feeling burned out later on. Stick with what you’re comfortable with and just add what you learn along the way. Another thing to keep in mind is to know yourself. Make sure you come up with a trading strategy that is in tune with your personality and your risk preferences. For instance, if you thrive in fast-paced movements and if you’re comfortable with managing many open positions at once, then you could look into scalp trading techniques. On the other hand, if you get easily stressed with quick price movements and would rather just check your charts every now and then, swing trading might be better for you.

While most traders know how impressive recent US economic data has been, many wouldn’t be aware that European data is no longer anywhere near as dire as what some of the headlines would have you believe. Citi’s economic surprise index for euro area data is show in blue in the chart below. For those who have not come across the indicator before, it tracks how data comes in relative to forecasts, with a score above 0 signalling that more data than not is topping expectation. The further away from 0, the greater the magnitude of net data Even though the Euro area score remains marginally below 0, the proportion of data undershoots has diminished considerably over the past month, in part due to the bar being lowered after a lengthy period of disappointment. While the US index continues to power higher, at some point lofty expectations will start to deliver data disappointment, creating conditions where dollar strength may fade.

While most traders know how impressive recent US economic data has been, many wouldn’t be aware that European data is no longer anywhere near as dire as what some of the headlines would have you believe. Citi’s economic surprise index for euro area data is show in blue in the chart below. For those who have not come across the indicator before, it tracks how data comes in relative to forecasts, with a score above 0 signalling that more data than not is topping expectation. The further away from 0, the greater the magnitude of net data Even though the Euro area score remains marginally below 0, the proportion of data undershoots has diminished considerably over the past month, in part due to the bar being lowered after a lengthy period of disappointment. While the US index continues to power higher, at some point lofty expectations will start to deliver data disappointment, creating conditions where dollar strength may fade.

The Pound Sterling faces mild selling pressure on Friday even though the BoE favored a more gradual rate-cut path. Both the Fed and the BoE cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday. The Fed is expected to cut its key borrowing rates by 25 bps again in December. The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) below the psychological resistance of 1.3000 in Friday’s North American session. The GBP/USD weakens slightly as the US Dollar rebounds after a sharp correction on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades in a tight range near 104.50. The Greenback retraced almost 60% of Wednesday’s rally on Thursday as traders unwinded some of the so-called ‘Trump trades’ and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary was interpreted as slightly dovish. The US Dollar rallied in October and in the first week of November as traders priced in Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the United States (US) presidential election.

The Pound Sterling faces mild selling pressure on Friday even though the BoE favored a more gradual rate-cut path. Both the Fed and the BoE cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday. The Fed is expected to cut its key borrowing rates by 25 bps again in December. The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) below the psychological resistance of 1.3000 in Friday’s North American session. The GBP/USD weakens slightly as the US Dollar rebounds after a sharp correction on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades in a tight range near 104.50. The Greenback retraced almost 60% of Wednesday’s rally on Thursday as traders unwinded some of the so-called ‘Trump trades’ and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary was interpreted as slightly dovish. The US Dollar rallied in October and in the first week of November as traders priced in Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the United States (US) presidential election.

Depending on entry level, the price would need to break several nearby levels to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective, including the uptrend from October 15 and horizontal support at 1.3869. If they were to fold, 1.3815 is one potential target with 1.3748 and 1.3700 the next after that. A stop above Friday's high would provide protection against reversal. Bolstering the case for potential downside, RSI (14) has broken the uptrend it was sitting in after sitting in overbought territory for more than a week, hinting bullish momentum may be starting to turn. While the signal is yet to be confirmed by MACD, that too is looking like it may soon rollover as it moves closer to the signal line.

Depending on entry level, the price would need to break several nearby levels to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective, including the uptrend from October 15 and horizontal support at 1.3869. If they were to fold, 1.3815 is one potential target with 1.3748 and 1.3700 the next after that. A stop above Friday's high would provide protection against reversal. Bolstering the case for potential downside, RSI (14) has broken the uptrend it was sitting in after sitting in overbought territory for more than a week, hinting bullish momentum may be starting to turn. While the signal is yet to be confirmed by MACD, that too is looking like it may soon rollover as it moves closer to the signal line.

The technical picture looks less dire for GBP/JPY in the near-term with the price remaining in an uptrend first established in late September. However, having been unable to clear resistance overhead at 199.50 over recent weeks, downside risks may be building. It’s yet to be completed, but the three-candle pattern resembles an evening star formation. RSI (14) is trending lower while MACD has rolled over, providing bearish signals on price momentum. If the price were to break the uptrend, 196 is a level that has provided both support and resistance at points this year. Below, the 200 and 50-day moving averages are other potential targets, as is 189.59 and 188.00.

The technical picture looks less dire for GBP/JPY in the near-term with the price remaining in an uptrend first established in late September. However, having been unable to clear resistance overhead at 199.50 over recent weeks, downside risks may be building. It’s yet to be completed, but the three-candle pattern resembles an evening star formation. RSI (14) is trending lower while MACD has rolled over, providing bearish signals on price momentum. If the price were to break the uptrend, 196 is a level that has provided both support and resistance at points this year. Below, the 200 and 50-day moving averages are other potential targets, as is 189.59 and 188.00.

Nevertheless, bullion may attempt to retrace the decline following the US election as the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate-cut in November, and it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will further unwind its restrictive policy as the central bank moves ‘toward a more neutral stance over time.’ In turn, the Fed may continue to prepare for US households and businesses for lower interest rates as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,’ and gold may continue to serve as an alternative to fiat-currencies amid the threat of a policy error. With that said, the price of gold may continue to reflect a bullish trend as it appears to be bouncing ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($2644), but bullion may no longer tracks the positive slope in the moving average if it fails to retain the advance from the monthly low ($2644).

Nevertheless, bullion may attempt to retrace the decline following the US election as the Federal Reserve delivers a dovish rate-cut in November, and it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will further unwind its restrictive policy as the central bank moves ‘toward a more neutral stance over time.’ In turn, the Fed may continue to prepare for US households and businesses for lower interest rates as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that ‘in the near term the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,’ and gold may continue to serve as an alternative to fiat-currencies amid the threat of a policy error. With that said, the price of gold may continue to reflect a bullish trend as it appears to be bouncing ahead of the 50-Day SMA ($2644), but bullion may no longer tracks the positive slope in the moving average if it fails to retain the advance from the monthly low ($2644).

The US dollar traded mixed in the first half of Friday’s session, after an eventful week. It was up against the commodity currencies after investors were left unimpressed with China’s $1.4 trillion programme to refinance local government debt. The greenback was also a little firmer against European currencies, while the Japanese yen outperformed as bond yields dipped. The dollar’s failure to add onto its gains to its post-election rally suggests we may have seen a near-term peak, ahead of next week’s US inflation data. Still, major pairs remain below key levels – for example, the GBP/USD was still below the 1.30 handle, while the EUR/USD had only made up half of the election-related losses. So, the picture was muddled overall. Helping weigh on the dollar was easing of bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields having returned to their starting point after a volatile two-day swing. While one can argue the greenback has made a short-term peak, the overall dollar forecast remains positive, especially against currencies subject to increased tariff risks from Trump’s administration.

The US dollar traded mixed in the first half of Friday’s session, after an eventful week. It was up against the commodity currencies after investors were left unimpressed with China’s $1.4 trillion programme to refinance local government debt. The greenback was also a little firmer against European currencies, while the Japanese yen outperformed as bond yields dipped. The dollar’s failure to add onto its gains to its post-election rally suggests we may have seen a near-term peak, ahead of next week’s US inflation data. Still, major pairs remain below key levels – for example, the GBP/USD was still below the 1.30 handle, while the EUR/USD had only made up half of the election-related losses. So, the picture was muddled overall. Helping weigh on the dollar was easing of bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields having returned to their starting point after a volatile two-day swing. While one can argue the greenback has made a short-term peak, the overall dollar forecast remains positive, especially against currencies subject to increased tariff risks from Trump’s administration.

Mexican Peso weakens on fears of Trump-imposed tariffs on Mexican imports. Banxico expected to cut rates by 25 bps as inflation approaches 3% target. Upcoming US and Mexico economic data, including consumer confidence and Banxico decision, may add to Peso’s volatility. The Mexican Peso is against the ropes versus the Greenback on Friday, with the latter recovering some ground even though the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates on Thursday. Risk aversion sponsored by China’s lack of clarity on its program to stimulate the economy weighed on global equities, while traders continue to digest Trump’s victory for a third day. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.16, up more than 1.85%. Mexico’s economic docket remains absent on Friday, but there’s some anxiety after Americans elected Donald Trump as their next president. Fears that Trump could impose tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, could spark a reacceleration of inflation and disrupt supply chains.

Mexican Peso weakens on fears of Trump-imposed tariffs on Mexican imports. Banxico expected to cut rates by 25 bps as inflation approaches 3% target. Upcoming US and Mexico economic data, including consumer confidence and Banxico decision, may add to Peso’s volatility. The Mexican Peso is against the ropes versus the Greenback on Friday, with the latter recovering some ground even though the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates on Thursday. Risk aversion sponsored by China’s lack of clarity on its program to stimulate the economy weighed on global equities, while traders continue to digest Trump’s victory for a third day. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.16, up more than 1.85%. Mexico’s economic docket remains absent on Friday, but there’s some anxiety after Americans elected Donald Trump as their next president. Fears that Trump could impose tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, could spark a reacceleration of inflation and disrupt supply chains.

Dow Jones Industrial Average clips fresh record high as consumer sentiment climbs. Dow Jones tapped 44,000 for the first time ever on Friday. Equities are extending a near-term bullish push to wrap up the trading week. UoM sentiment survey results came in much better than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose into fresh all-time highs on Friday, clipping into 44,000 as stocks lean firmly bullish to close out a record week. The Dow had its best week since October of 2023, rising nearly 5% and piercing record bids three days in a row. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November, overshooting the expected print of 71.0 and climbing further above October’s 70.5 as polled consumers tilt cautiously optimistic regarding the everall state of the US economy. On the downside, 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also ticked higher once again, rising to 3.1% compared to the previous print of 3.0%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average clips fresh record high as consumer sentiment climbs. Dow Jones tapped 44,000 for the first time ever on Friday. Equities are extending a near-term bullish push to wrap up the trading week. UoM sentiment survey results came in much better than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose into fresh all-time highs on Friday, clipping into 44,000 as stocks lean firmly bullish to close out a record week. The Dow had its best week since October of 2023, rising nearly 5% and piercing record bids three days in a row. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November, overshooting the expected print of 71.0 and climbing further above October’s 70.5 as polled consumers tilt cautiously optimistic regarding the everall state of the US economy. On the downside, 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also ticked higher once again, rising to 3.1% compared to the previous print of 3.0%.

Despite the dovish detail of the jobs report, NZD/USD continues to grind higher as we approach the start of the vote counting in the US presidential election, reacting as you would expect under a split Congress scenario. While the closeness of the polls suggests that’s a likely outcome, watch for early voting patterns for signs of either a blue or red wave. If that’s the direction the count takes, Kiwi gains are likely to evaporate quickly, especially if the Republicans emerge victorious.

Despite the dovish detail of the jobs report, NZD/USD continues to grind higher as we approach the start of the vote counting in the US presidential election, reacting as you would expect under a split Congress scenario. While the closeness of the polls suggests that’s a likely outcome, watch for early voting patterns for signs of either a blue or red wave. If that’s the direction the count takes, Kiwi gains are likely to evaporate quickly, especially if the Republicans emerge victorious.

Today’s Asian calendar is relatively full, although none of it could be considered top tier data as we’re still absorbing the turbulence from yesterday’s election. But we do have two central bank meetings with a combined 50bp of cuts likely in the pipeline. A 25bp cut from the BOE seems practically a given, but thanks to the recent UK budget it remains up in their air as to whether the central bank will want to signal further cuts today. If they don’t GBP/USD could regain some bullish traction but it is unlikely to fully recoup its losses from yesterday. A sympathy bounce perhaps? Whereas a dovish cut could see GBP/USD bears have another crack at probing the 200-day SMA around the 1.28 handle. A 25bp cut is also expected, with Fed fund futures implying a 99.5% probability of such a move. It will be interesting to see if the Fed strikes a more cautious tone with Trump lined up for a return in January. Although Another viable option is to provide a dovish cut today and cement a 25bp cut for December, to get any cuts done and dusted before we see what the new administration brings.

Today’s Asian calendar is relatively full, although none of it could be considered top tier data as we’re still absorbing the turbulence from yesterday’s election. But we do have two central bank meetings with a combined 50bp of cuts likely in the pipeline. A 25bp cut from the BOE seems practically a given, but thanks to the recent UK budget it remains up in their air as to whether the central bank will want to signal further cuts today. If they don’t GBP/USD could regain some bullish traction but it is unlikely to fully recoup its losses from yesterday. A sympathy bounce perhaps? Whereas a dovish cut could see GBP/USD bears have another crack at probing the 200-day SMA around the 1.28 handle. A 25bp cut is also expected, with Fed fund futures implying a 99.5% probability of such a move. It will be interesting to see if the Fed strikes a more cautious tone with Trump lined up for a return in January. Although Another viable option is to provide a dovish cut today and cement a 25bp cut for December, to get any cuts done and dusted before we see what the new administration brings.

Silver trades below 50-day SMA at $31.37; $30.84 support is key for preventing deeper pullback. Bearish momentum persists with RSI in seller’s territory, favoring near-term downside. A close above $31.50 needed for bullish recovery, targeting $31.75 and potentially $32.00. Silver retreated from two-day highs of $32.00 and tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.37 late in the North American session. This was weighed down by a strong US Dollar underpinned by former President Donald Trump’s victory. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.29, down 2.29%.

Silver trades below 50-day SMA at $31.37; $30.84 support is key for preventing deeper pullback. Bearish momentum persists with RSI in seller’s territory, favoring near-term downside. A close above $31.50 needed for bullish recovery, targeting $31.75 and potentially $32.00. Silver retreated from two-day highs of $32.00 and tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.37 late in the North American session. This was weighed down by a strong US Dollar underpinned by former President Donald Trump’s victory. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.29, down 2.29%.

Eurozone economic growth came in stronger than expected in the third quarter, Rabobank’s economist Maartje Wijffelaars notes. Consumer spending to drive growth in the coming quarters “There’s a stark divergence between the manufacturing and services sector, however.” “Industrial performance also varies widely between member states. This is not solely a recent phenomenon, but already predates the energy crisis. Industrial underperformance of Germany and France happened between 19Q4 and 22Q2, for example.” “We expect that consumer spending will drive growth in the coming quarters.”

Eurozone economic growth came in stronger than expected in the third quarter, Rabobank’s economist Maartje Wijffelaars notes. Consumer spending to drive growth in the coming quarters “There’s a stark divergence between the manufacturing and services sector, however.” “Industrial performance also varies widely between member states. This is not solely a recent phenomenon, but already predates the energy crisis. Industrial underperformance of Germany and France happened between 19Q4 and 22Q2, for example.” “We expect that consumer spending will drive growth in the coming quarters.”

Looking first at the chart of EUR/USD, the pair remains in a medium-term downtrend of its December high near 1.1100. From a shorter-term perspective, the pair is forming a Bullish Engulfing Candle off 1.0730 today’s price action; for the uninitiated, a Bullish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks below the low of the previous time period before buyers step in and push rates up to close above the high of the previous time period. It indicates that the buyers have wrested control of the market from the sellers and shows potential for more upside in the coming days. To the topside, the resistance area to watch comes from the 5-month bearish trend line near 1.0800, with bulls looking for a confirmed break above that zone before growing more constructive on the pair. A break below previous support/resistance at 1.0730 would flip the near-term bias back in favor of the bears heading into next week.

Looking first at the chart of EUR/USD, the pair remains in a medium-term downtrend of its December high near 1.1100. From a shorter-term perspective, the pair is forming a Bullish Engulfing Candle off 1.0730 today’s price action; for the uninitiated, a Bullish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks below the low of the previous time period before buyers step in and push rates up to close above the high of the previous time period. It indicates that the buyers have wrested control of the market from the sellers and shows potential for more upside in the coming days. To the topside, the resistance area to watch comes from the 5-month bearish trend line near 1.0800, with bulls looking for a confirmed break above that zone before growing more constructive on the pair. A break below previous support/resistance at 1.0730 would flip the near-term bias back in favor of the bears heading into next week.

Canadian Dollar sheds weight, flubbing technical recovery after jobs data misses the mark. The Canadian Dollar shed 0.4% against the Greenback on Friday. Canada saw a worse-than-expected print in net new jobs additions in October. Average Canadian wages also rose, maintaining upward pressure on inflation expectations. The Canadian Dollar flubbed a near-term technical recovery on Friday, slumping back into familiar lows against the Greenback. The Loonie remains under pressure as the Bank of Canada (BoC) continues to keep downward pressure on interest rates in the face of lagging employment figures, though the Canadian central bank is quickly running out of runway as rising wages keep inflation expectations simmering in the background. Canada reported a much lower than expected print in Net Change in Employment in October, entirely missing the mark as job gains continue to wither. Canadian Average Hourly Wages also rebounded, reminding investors of Canada’s ongoing battle with still-high inflation expectations despite overall price growth well outpacing wages across the gamut of timeframes.

Canadian Dollar sheds weight, flubbing technical recovery after jobs data misses the mark. The Canadian Dollar shed 0.4% against the Greenback on Friday. Canada saw a worse-than-expected print in net new jobs additions in October. Average Canadian wages also rose, maintaining upward pressure on inflation expectations. The Canadian Dollar flubbed a near-term technical recovery on Friday, slumping back into familiar lows against the Greenback. The Loonie remains under pressure as the Bank of Canada (BoC) continues to keep downward pressure on interest rates in the face of lagging employment figures, though the Canadian central bank is quickly running out of runway as rising wages keep inflation expectations simmering in the background. Canada reported a much lower than expected print in Net Change in Employment in October, entirely missing the mark as job gains continue to wither. Canadian Average Hourly Wages also rebounded, reminding investors of Canada’s ongoing battle with still-high inflation expectations despite overall price growth well outpacing wages across the gamut of timeframes.

US Dollar rises after UoM positive data. Consumer confidence improved, inflation expectations were mixed. FOMC cuts rates by 25 bps, economic growth remains solid. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rose on Friday. This comes after positive University of Michigan data and the announcement that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. The Fed expressed optimism about economic growth but acknowledged easing labor market conditions. Despite the rate reduction, DXY has rebounded and could continue its upward momentum if the data continues coming in strong.

US Dollar rises after UoM positive data. Consumer confidence improved, inflation expectations were mixed. FOMC cuts rates by 25 bps, economic growth remains solid. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rose on Friday. This comes after positive University of Michigan data and the announcement that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. The Fed expressed optimism about economic growth but acknowledged easing labor market conditions. Despite the rate reduction, DXY has rebounded and could continue its upward momentum if the data continues coming in strong.