Gold (XAU/USD) is predicted to decrease due to a mix of economic factors and technical indicators. Lower-than-expected US PPI and CPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts, initially supporting gold, but a cautious Fed outlook has pulled prices back. Technically, a bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern suggests a trend reversal, with a break below $2,279 confirming downside targets at $2,171 and $2,106. However, a rise above $2,345 could challenge this pattern and push prices back toward $2,450.
In May, Australia's central bank, the RBA, maintained its interest rate at 4.35%, as widely expected for the fourth meeting in a row. In April, U.S. retail sales stagnated at 0.0%, disappointing expectations and trailing the previous month's figures of 0.0% and 0.6% respectively. In March, the Swiss Central Bank caught markets off guard by becoming the first major central bank to decrease interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, lowering them from 1.75% to 1.50%. In April, the Bank of England..
Market Review | June 14, 2024
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The Federal Reserve’s decision-making process is fraught with contradictions and uncertainties. Despite the market’s positive response to improved inflation data, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about cutting interest rates. They require more data to confirm sustained improvements in inflation while avoiding potential negative consequences of premature rate cuts. During this process, market volatility may intensify, necessitating close attention from investors to Federal Reserve policy
On Wednesday (June 12th), due to lower than expected US May CPI data, the US dollar index plummeted significantly.
the U.S. CPI came in lower than market consensus, indicating easing inflation and boosting risk appetite.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.
Market Review | June 13, 2024
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Ahead of Wednesday's dual risks event of 'CPI + Fed,' traders are reducing their bets on a rise in U.S. Treasuries. Market data indicates the Fed may maintain high rates for a longer period, contrary to the previous expectation of an easing cycle. Since the release of non-farm payroll data last Friday, open interest in 10-year Treasury futures has decreased by about 80,000 contracts, reflecting traders unwinding bullish bets.
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The dollar index steadied in the last session, trading above the $105 mark, ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC meeting minutes. Market expectations are leaning towards a more hawkish stance from the U.S. central bank due to a tight labour market. Analysts predict that the Fed is likely to implement two 25 bps rate cuts toward the end of the year, contingent on further evidence that inflation is slowing.
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The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which could support the US dollar and pressure gold prices if a hawkish stance is taken. Gold prices continue to decline after breaking an upward wedge pattern, with a key support level at $2250. The 14-day RSI indicates further potential decline unless prices recover above the 50-day and 21-day moving averages.
Market Review | June 12, 2024
Market Review | June 12, 2024
Market Review | June 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's May consumer survey reveals that American households' optimism about the stock market has reached a three-year high, with the probability of stock prices rising in the next year expected to be 40.5%.
In response to increasing investor demand for more cost-effective trading solutions, FP Markets, a global multi-asset Forex and CFD broker, has further reduced its spreads across various trading instruments.