MHMarkets：The ECB Governing Council released a hawkish signal, the US July Dallas Fed business activity index hit a two-year low

Fundamentals:

European Central Bank Governing Council member Visco said that the European Central Bank will make decisions in each meeting, but it does not mean that it will raise interest rates slowly. Another ECB governing board member, Kazaks, said the big rate hikes may not be over, and that a September rate hike “needs a considerable amount” because a weak euro would be a problem. In addition, on the issue of new tools, ECB Governing Council member Visco said that TPI will help the ECB avoid excessive and disorderly market volatility, and the ECB will independently decide when and how to use TPI to intervene. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said the new bond instrument “fills” the gap in the current instrument.

The U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index recorded -22.6 in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The agency believes that it is only a matter of time before overall business activity has to slow due to persistent supply chain issues, high raw material costs, and sharply higher interest rates. 

Technical

Dow: US stocks closed, the Dow closed up about 90 points, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.43%. Monkeypox concept stocks and oil and gas sectors performed strongly, while gold and silver sectors generally fell. The Dow fluctuated, and the top was concerned about the position near the support pressure position of 33240.

U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index fluctuated in the 106-107 mark range, and finally closed down 0.084% at 106.5; the 10-year U.S. bond yield fluctuated upward and finally closed at 2.807%. The top of the dollar fell, and the bulls were cautious, focusing on the target position of 105 below.

Gold: On Monday, spot gold rose first and then fell, erasing all gains within the day, failing to hold the 1720 mark, and finally closed down 0.3% at $1719.53 per ounce; gold fluctuated at a low level, the lower monthly line supported the 1680 position and stabilized and rebounded, focusing on 1744 target location.

Crude oil: In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils fell first and then rose. WTI crude oil rebounded sharply to below US$97 after hitting US$93, and finally closed up 1.41% at US$98.42 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.21% at US$104.89 /bucket. Crude oil fluctuated, and the top was concerned about the target position near 100.

(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the foreign exchange market is risky, and investment should be cautious)