Mohicans markets ：Hawk speech lost to panic, crude oil awaits OPEC+ meeting

09:45 China's July Caixin service industry PMI, previous value 54.5, expected value -- , announced value: to be released

14:00 Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade account (100 million euros), previous value -10, expected value -20, announced value: to be released

14:00 Germany's June unadjusted trade account (100 million euros), previous value 5, expected value -- , announced value: to be released

16:30 UK Markit service industry PMI final value in July, previous value 53.3, expected value 53.3, announced value: to be released

17:00 Eurozone June retail sales monthly rate (%), previous value 0.2, expected value 0, announced value: to be released

17:00 Eurozone June retail sales annual rate (%), previous value 0.2, expected value -1.7, announced value: to be released

22:00 US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, previous value 55.3, expected value 53.5, announced value: to be released

22:00 The revised monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders in June (%), the previous value was 1.9, the expected value -- , the announced value: to be released

22:00 U.S. June factory orders monthly rate (%), previous value 1.6, expected value 1.1, announced value: to be released

22:30 Changes in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ended July 29th (10,000 barrels), previous value -452.3, expected value -467, announced value: to be released

Market overview · Fundamental overview

Spot gold fluctuated around the shock center 1767 during the Asian session on Wednesday. If it is confirmed to stand above this position, the first upward target should focus on 1771-1775. Spot silver is testing the 20 mark. WTI crude oil is hovering near the pivot point, pay attention to its direction selection. The U.S. dollar index once tested the pivot point, and now it has recovered. The first target is 106.54. The euro against the dollar is still under pressure below the pivot point, the first support is 1.0148, and the first support for the pound against the dollar is 1.2157. On Tuesday, several Fed policymakers said they would not end their fight against inflation anytime soon, prompting traders to reduce bets on a rate cut next year. Cleveland Fed President Mester said the Fed needs to raise interest rates further as inflation has not yet peaked. San Francisco Fed President Daley also believes that the Fed's work to fight inflation is far from complete. The Fed still has a long way to go to bring inflation down from 40-year highs. Chicago Fed President Evans believes the federal funds rate will rise to between 3.75% and 4.00% by the end of next year. That means the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates next year to curb price pressures. The Fed's “Eagle King” and St. Louis Fed President Bullard believes that a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is achievable. Bullard said the Fed could bring inflation back to pre-pandemic lows without triggering a recession, given that both investors and U.S. consumers no longer expect prices to continue soaring. On the oil front, European imports of Russian diesel increased by more than a fifth in July, according to the Financial Times, a rise that suggests the EU may not be able to reduce its Russian diesel imports to zero by February next year.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 3, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Level：

International Gold

High probability scenario  Below 1767.72, bearish

Small probability scenario  Above 1767.72, bullish

Key points  First support  1752.44 Second support  1742.94 Third support 1736.98

1st resistance 1767.72  2nd resistance 1772.21  3rd resistance 1777.89

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday night, due to the voice of the Federal Reserve officials, the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes re-increased. Gold fell back in the second half of the US session and was under pressure at 1785, the first resistance yesterday. After the opening of the Asian session today, it was supported around 1755 and rebounded. From the perspective of option order flow, the 1769-1775 range has added new short bets, and the bearish stock is large, which is a watershed for intraday long and short; if it stands in this range, it is expected to look at the previous long target of 1794, but the position is bullish and there is a clear departure. , the short-term kinetic energy is limited; the second target of the bulls is at 1814-1819, and many bullish bets have been added near this position. If the price of gold is under pressure below 1769, it may continue to hit the short targets of 1744 and 1729-1734. These two positions were concentrated in early bearish bets, and many new bearish funds entered the market yesterday.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 3rd. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Spot Silver

High probability scenario    Below 19.99, bearish

Small probability scenario   Above 19.99, bullish

Key points  First support 19.00  Second support 19.53 Third support 19.12

1st resistance 20.16   2nd resistance 20.32  3rd resistance 20.50

 Technical Analysis

Silver spot yesterday again hit 20.5 long target, under the 20 level of support, from the option order flow, 20 is still the outstanding position of bullish stock, but 20.1 there are many bearish bets to add to the position, where resistance is more critical. If silver returns to above 20.1 within the day, it may continue to challenge the previous bull target of 20.50.

Below the current price, both the long and short sides of 19.75 have increased their bets and become the key support for the day. Once it breaks, the next short fall target is at 19.5, which is also the key support for the previous upward trend.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 3rd. This is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

US crude oil

High probability  scenario Above 95, bullish

Low probability  scenario Below 95, bearish

Key points  First support 92.96  Second support 90.24  Third support 87.69

1st resistance 95.93  2nd resistance 96.86  3rd resistance 98.67

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, the OPEC meeting did not discuss production-related policies, so it is implied that the meeting held today may not significantly adjust the

production increase policy in September. It quickly reversed and fell, and may continue to maintain range-bound volatility.

In terms of order flow in the options market, long bets are mainly

concentrated  near the current price, and there may still be some rebound momentum in the short-term. The first resistance is 95, and the long-short

boundary above 96.5 is concerned about every 1 position, and the key

resistance is still 101. The key bet position of the bears below is still stacked around 90, but the premise of the downside is to effectively break the 92-93  support. If it falls below 90, look back at 87.

EURUSD

High probability scenario Below 1.0199, bearish

Small probability scenario Above 1.0199, bullish

Key points  First support 1.0150  Second support 1.0125 Third support 0.9979

1st resistance 1.0225 2nd resistance 1.0275 3rd resistance 1.0350

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, the Euro

against the US dollar fell all the way, and the lowest retested the 1.0150

support. The daily line was bearish and engulfed. It is necessary to be alert to the possibility of reversing the upward trend in the past few days, and pay

attention to the performance near the resistance.

Judging from the latest option changes, put options at the 1.02 level have dropped by 1039 lots, and new bets on call options are concentrated above

this level. If Europe and the United States want to reverse the decline,

they must first break the 1.02 level: but 1.0225-1.0250 new An increase

of 600 puts is expected to constitute key upside pressure, while a

reduction in bullish bets at 1.0275 also dampens further upside momentum. Only when we stand firm at 1.03 can we expect to gain a little upward

momentum, and we will see 1.0350.

On the other hand, put options in the range of 1.0050-1.0125 have

dropped by 892 lots, which is expected to be a profit exit. The short-term will weaken the downward momentum of Europe and the United States. Focus on the previous low support, while some short targets re-focus on 1.00-1.0025

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 3rd. This strategy

is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

GBP/USD

High probability scenario   Below 1.2192, bearish

Small probability scenario   Above 1.2192, bullish

Key points  First support 1.2150  Second support 1.2107  

Third support 1.2050

1st resistance 1.220  2nd resistance 1.2250  3rd resistance 1.2270

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, GBP/USD broke the support and went all the way down to the 1.2150 support level. After opening today, it further tested 1.2135 and then

rebounded. It is currently under pressure and falling below 1.22. From the

perspective of options changes, both bullish and bearish bets have not made

major moves. Considering that the Bank of England interest rate decision is

imminent, and the GBPUSD has approached the 4-hour trendline support, the wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, and the USD will continue to dominate

the GBPUSD trend. Continue to focus on the 1.22 resistance level in the short term, and focus on the 1.2250-1.2270 rebound target after the breakthrough, which is also a new resistance area. On the other hand, if it breaks this

morning's low, you need to pay attention to the short target of 1.21, and further support to 1.2050.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 3rd. This strategy

is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

AUD/USD

High probability scenario Below 0.6950, bearish

Small probability scenario Above 0.6950, bullish

Key points  First support 0.6875  Second support 0.6850 Third support 0.6825

1st resistance 0.6925  2nd resistance 0.6950  3rd resistance 0.7025

Technical Analysis

After experiencing a wave of “expected landing” by the Reserve Bank of

Australia yesterday, Australia and the United States reached the support of 0.69, and then again failed to rebound due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

From the perspective of options, the long and short bets have not changed

much, and the key points have not changed much, but the US dollar is

temporarily supported by hedging. If the dollar continues to be boosted in the market outlook, then the Australian dollar will still face downside risks. Below, pay attention to the support of 0.6890 in the middle rail of the daily

Bollinger Band. The key support of the trend is still 0.6850-0.6875. If it falls below it, it will hurt the bullish sentiment. Look back at 0.6825. The

short-term competition above is 0.6925, and the stabilization is expected to test the key resistance of 0.6960, but if it returns to the rally, it needs to return

to the top of 0.70.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 3rd. This strategy

is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Declaration|Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice

only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the

accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets

makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law,

 Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or

damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information

provided or omitted from this material. The features of Mohicans Markets

products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the Product

Disclosure Statement available on the Mohicans Markets website www.mhmmarkets.com, and you should consider before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky; losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans

Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.