MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆ At 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. March non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data; the market is expected to add 240,000 jobs, the unemployment rate is unchanged from last month, which is still at 3.6%.

☆ Market closure reminder: affected by Good Friday holiday, many countries in Europe and the United States stock markets, as well as Hong Kong stocks, Australian stocks are closed; CME's precious metals, U.S. crude oil futures and ICE's Brent crude oil futures contract trading suspended for the whole day; CME's foreign exchange futures contracts ended trading at 00:15 GMT on the 8th, please note.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend 

On Thursday, spot gold fell below the $2010 mark during the day and once to $2000, but eventually recovered some of the lost ground, closing down 0.63% at $2008.10 per ounce. Spot silver repeatedly up to $25, the U.S. session even surprised the V trend, and ultimately still failed to break the $25 barrier, closing up 0.12% at $24.97 per ounce. It is worth noting that gold is up more than 2% so far this week, and silver is expected to close higher for the fourth consecutive week.

The dollar index oscillated around the 102 handle and closed up 0.04% at 101.91; the 10-year bond yield moved slightly lower and closed at 3.303%. In addition, the “Powell Curve” fell to a new low, with the spread between the 18-month U.S. bond forward yield and the current yield on the 3-month U.S. bond approaching -170 basis points on Thursday.

Crude oil trading was light, and WTI crude oil is still fluctuating around the 80 mark, ultimately closing 0.15% higher at $80.42 per barrel; Brent crude oil hit the $85 level multiple times and ended up 0.07% higher at $84.84 per barrel.

Due to weather forecasts indicating a shift towards mild weather in North America, US natural gas futures prices fell by over 7% at one point and ultimately closed at $2.03 per million British thermal units, with a cumulative decline of over 50% this year.

The US stock index was close to flat, the Nasdaq rose 0.76%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.36%. ChatGPT concept stocks generally rose, with Alibaba up 4.27%, Alphabet up 3.78%, and Microsoft up 2.55%.

The European stock market closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.5%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK up 1.03%, France's CAC40 index up 0.12%, and the European Stoxx 50 index up 0.26%.

Market Focus

1. The total size of emergency loans provided by the Federal Reserve in response to the banking crisis slightly decreased this week to $148.7 billion, and the decline in balance sheet reached a new 34 month high.

2. Insider: The Biden administration plans to introduce the strictest new regulations on automotive emissions in the United States.

3. Federal Reserve Brad: The possibility of financial pressure continuing to ease is 85%; Interest rates are at the lower end of the restrictive range, and we cannot declare victory over inflation too early.

4. New York Federal Reserve: Global supply chain pressure has dropped again and has basically returned to normal.  

5. Challenger company: In the first quarter, American employers announced 270,416 layoffs, an increase of 396% from 55,696 in the same period last year.

6. The inverted range of Yield curve favored by Powell reached a new low, increasing the certainty of economic recession.

7. The weather in North America has warmed, and US natural gas futures have fallen below $2 per million British heat at one point, with a cumulative decline of over 50% this year.

8. The Swedish prosecutors confirmed that the Nord Streame was sabotage, and the main assumption was that a national actor directly or indirectly participated in the action.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. On the 6th, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian army launched attacks in various directions such as Kupiyansk, Zinchman, Donetsk, etc., targeting Ukrainian military personnel and armored vehicles and other military equipment. The Russian air defense forces intercepted several rockets launched by the “Hamis” multi barrel rocket artillery system and shot down several UAVs.

2. On the 6th, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that in Bahmut, the Russian army continued to launch offensive operations, and the two sides engaged in fierce battles for control of the area. The Russian army's multiple attacks were repelled by the Ukrainian army. In addition, the Ukrainian air force, missile and artillery units launched strikes on targets such as the Russian military personnel concentration area.

3. Russian Ministry of Defense: When the Russian howitzer and the Polish gun were firing against each other, one hit and destroyed a Polish assisted Krab howitzer of the Ukrainian army.

4. Founder of the Wagner Group in Russia: The Ukrainian army will not withdraw from Bakhmut.

5. The Secretary of State of the Belarusian Security Council stated that, given the compact territory of Belarus, tactical nuclear weapons do not necessarily need to be deployed in areas close to Poland.

6. A spokesperson for the Kremlin stated that during the talks between Putin and Lukashenko, there was no mention of the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Institutional perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs: The surge in initial jobless claims in the United States is not surprising 

On April 6th, Goldman Sachs reported that the surge in initial jobless claims in the United States due to seasonal adjustments is not surprising. Analysts warn that after future quarterly adjustments, which they believe are artificially reducing the number of new applicants, the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits may soar to 240,000.

02 

SOCIETE GENERALE

Societe Generale: The financing progress of governments in the Eurozone is faster than the same period last year 

On April 3rd, Ninon Bachet, interest rate strategist at Societe Generale in France, stated in a report that the government bonds issued by sovereign countries in the Eurozone so far this year are slightly higher than the same period last year, completing 32% of the expected annual issuance, compared to 30% at the end of the first quarter of 2022. Bachet stated that the Eurozone has issued 410 billion euros of government bonds so far this year, but due to the expected increase in total supply, the remaining issuance this year is about 100 billion euros more than last year. She stated that the bond issuance progress of the four major bond issuers in the Eurozone - France, Germany, Italy, and Spain - is generally consistent with last year. Among the smaller bond issuing countries, Greece, Belgium, and Finland have made progress in their financing plans compared to last year, while other countries such as Portugal, Ireland, and the Netherlands have lagged behind last year.

03

MUFG 

MUFJ: If US employment data falls below expectations, the US dollar may fall significantly

On April 5th, MUFJ stated that if US non farm employment report on Friday weakens than expected, the US dollar may fall significantly as it will support increasing evidence that positive labor market demand is starting to weaken. Derek Halpenny, an analyst at MUFJ, stated that the data collection for the employment report was prior to the banking turmoil in March, which could lead to further tightening of credit conditions and a blow to real economic activity. The best performing sector in the US economy is still the labor market, but we may be on the cusp of change. Halpenny said that if the yield of treasury bond further drops due to the cooling of the job market, the dollar may be most affected against G10 core currencies, including the Swiss franc, yen, euro and sterling.