The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March has further faded US bond yields have risen significantly, while the US dollar has risen strongly

On Monday (February 5), the actions of Wall Street traders led to the decline of both US bonds and stocks, and the strong economic data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve was not ready to announce the fight against inflation. The yield of US 10-year treasury bond climbed 14 basis points to 4.16%, and the yield of two-year treasury bond was close to 4.5%. The possibility of a rate hike in March has been almost eliminated by the Federal Reserve's swap, and the possibility of a rate cut in May has also decreased. The US dollar has reached its strongest level since November last year. The US dollar index further strengthened, reaching a new high since mid November last year, reaching a peak of 104.6 and ultimately closing up 0.49% at 104.47.

On Monday (February 5th), the growth of the US service industry accelerated in January, further reducing the possibility of interest rate cuts in March, once again suppressing the morale of gold bulls. Gold prices briefly fell below the 2020 US dollar mark to $2014.78 per ounce, a new low since January 25th, closing at $2024.92 per ounce, marking the second consecutive trading day of decline.

Oil prices rose by about $1 on Monday (February 5th) due to concerns in the market that tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine may suppress global supply. However, the K-line chart shows that there is still further downside risk in the short term. This trading day, we will focus on the monthly EIA crude oil market report and API crude oil inventory series data.