Global Market Impacts from Political, Economic, and Corporate Developments

1

President Joe Biden announced he will not run in the 2024 presidential election, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. This unprecedented decision breaks modern US political norms, making Biden the first president in over half a century to not seek re-election. The decision comes amid waning confidence in Biden's ability to defeat Trump, with Harris now leveraging $96 million in campaign funds and seeking delegate support. Despite some Democratic support, party division and uncertainty remain.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased political uncertainty could weaken the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Stock Market: Potential negative impact due to increased political uncertainty.

Companies:General Market Indices

4

The Singapore dollar is expected to be Asia's best-performing currency for the third consecutive year as the Monetary Authority of Singapore maintains a firm stance on its currency policy. Currently, the SGD ranks third among Asian currencies in 2024, behind the HKD and INR. Market expectations suggest the SGD will continue to benefit from policy appreciation, especially as economic growth and global trade rise.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Strong policy support could strengthen the SGD.

FX Pair:USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD

Impact on Shares:

Singapore Market: Positive impact on financial and export-oriented stocks.

Companies:DBS Group (D05.SI), Singapore Airlines (C6L.SI)

5

Over the past year, the number of Australians using government reverse mortgage products to help fund retirement has increased by nearly 40%. Data shows that as of June this year, 13,479 people used this plan, more than doubling from two years ago. According to a report by the Actuaries Institute of Australia, the policy needs adjustments to encourage more people to use the value of their homes or downsize to compensate for insufficient retirement savings.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased use of reverse mortgages could strengthen the AUD.

FX Pair:USD/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD

Impact on Shares:

Australian Market: Positive impact on financial and real estate stocks.

Companies:Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX), Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC.AX)

6

A high-performing Taiwanese tech fund managed by Mr. Guo of UPAMC predicts that despite growing concerns over overvaluation, sustained demand for AI will continue to drive the semiconductor cycle upward. The fund has risen 45% this year, with its largest holdings including Nvidia, TSMC, and Micron Technology.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Continued demand for AI could strengthen the TWD.

FX Pair:USD/TWD, EUR/TWD, JPY/TWD

Impact on Shares:

Taiwanese Market: Positive impact on semiconductor and technology stocks.

Companies:Nvidia (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Micron Technology (MU)

8

Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has agreed to acquire US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project developer Tellurian Inc. for approximately $900 million. Australia's largest oil and gas producer will purchase all of Tellurian's shares in cash at around $1 per share, including its Driftwood LNG project operations along the US Gulf Coast.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased foreign investment could strengthen the AUD.

FX Pair:USD/AUD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD

Impact on Shares:

Australian Market: Positive impact on energy sector stocks.

Companies:Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AX), Tellurian Inc. (TELL)

9

Despite President Biden's calls for Israel to cease its war in Gaza and his long-standing delay in inviting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to the White House, Biden will host Netanyahu this week. Netanyahu will also have the rare opportunity to address the US Congress. This visit is seen as a sign of Biden's waning influence. After announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race, Biden plans to support Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Netanyahu appears confident, claiming that major operations in Gaza are concluding and asserting that Hamas's military infrastructure has been dismantled, although he faces significant challenges both domestically and internationally.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Reduced geopolitical tensions could weaken the USD as safe-haven demand decreases.

FX Pair:USD/ILS, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Impact on Shares:

Global Market: Positive impact on market sentiment.

Companies:General Market Indices

10

Boeing is working on “transformational changes” in its factories and culture based on feedback from customers, regulators, and employees. In her first public appearance since taking charge, Stephanie Pope, head of Boeing's commercial airplane business, acknowledged that these reforms would take years to take root and require the support of customers hurt by Boeing's delays and quality issues.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive corporate news could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Positive impact on Boeing and aerospace sector stocks.

Companies:Boeing (BA)

11

Rajeev Radhakrishnan, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at India's largest asset management company, SBI Funds Management Ltd., believes the federal budget should equip the central bank with tools to manage the surge in capital inflows expected after Indian bonds are included in major global indices. Radhakrishnan suggests using Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS) bonds instead of distorting the market by selling long-term bonds.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Anticipated capital inflows could strengthen the INR.

FX Pair:USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR

Impact on Shares:

Indian Market: Positive impact on bond market and financial sector stocks.

Companies:SBI Funds Management, ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK.NS)

12

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's silence over the past two months has left markets uncertain about potential interest rate changes. During the six-week election campaign “quiet period,” Bailey and other key members of the Monetary Policy Committee have not made public statements, making it difficult to predict whether a rate cut will occur in August amid fluctuating data and higher-than-expected inflation.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Market uncertainty could weaken the GBP.

FX Pair:GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

UK Market: Negative impact on financial and consumer stocks.

Companies:General Market Indices

13

Suzuki Motor Corporation Vice President Kenichi Ayukawa stated that the Indian car market is expected to grow to 20 million units by 2047, with the growth of battery electric vehicles (EVs) being a significant driver. Suzuki aims to increase its market share in India from the current 40% to 50% by 2030 through its subsidiary Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive growth outlook could strengthen the INR.

FX Pair:USD/INR, EUR/INR, JPY/INR

Impact on Shares:

Indian Market: Positive impact on automotive sector stocks.

Companies:Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MARUTI.NS), Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS.NS)

15

A US federal judge approved Binance.US's investment of customer assets in US Treasury bills, lifting restrictions imposed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Binance.US. Binance will transfer cryptocurrencies to a third-party custodian unrelated to the exchange.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive regulatory developments could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Cryptocurrency Market: Positive impact on Binance and related stocks.

Companies:Binance, Coinbase (COIN)