President Trump Intervenes Israel-Gaza Geopolitical Issue

• The dollar weighed on the soft Job Opening data from yesterday and slid to its previous strong support price levels.

• The Canadian dollar improved as President Trump delayed levies on Canada.

• Donald Trump stepped in on the Gaza-Israel geopolitical issue; the development will have a direct impact on gold.

Market Summary

The market remains fixated on Donald Trump‘s impending policies, which could significantly sway sentiment across multiple asset classes, including the U.S. dollar and equities. The greenback, already pressured by the delay in tariffs on Mexico and Canada, faced further headwinds after the JOLTs Job Openings report missed market expectations. Despite this setback, traders believe the dollar’s weakness is temporary, with steady U.S. Treasury yields potentially providing support.

On Wall Street, equities held steady as investors monitored Trump‘s next moves. However, the Nasdaq’s upward momentum was curbed by disappointing earnings from Alphabet Inc. and AMD, which dampened sentiment in the tech sector.

In the forex market, the Canadian dollar saw a sharp rebound after Trump‘s tariff delay on Canada, but USD/CAD has now approached a key support level, warranting caution for a potential technical rebound. Meanwhile, all eyes are on tomorrow’s Bank of England interest rate decision, with markets pricing in a rate cut that could weigh on the recently strengthened British pound.

In the commodities space, geopolitical tensions remain in focus, particularly Trumps remarks regarding ownership claims over Gaza and the relocation of Palestinians. Gold prices continue to hover at record highs as safe-haven demand remains robust, while oil struggles to find footing near recent lows.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision:

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (100.0%) VS -25 bps (0%)

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply following a disappointing U.S. JOLTs Job Openings report, which dropped to 7.6M, missing expectations of 8.01M and marking a significant decline from the previous 8.156M reading. This weak labor data, coupled with ongoing trade uncertainties, has weighed on the dollars outlook. With the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday, market participants are closely watching for further signs of labor market weakness that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 41, suggesting the index might extend its losses after breakout since the RSI stays below the midline.

Resistance level: 108.75, 109.90

Support level: 107.85, 107.05

XAU/USD, H4

Gold surged to a new record high after gaining nearly 1% in the previous session. Additionally, markets are closely watching whether tariffs could reignite U.S. inflation, which could have ripple effects on Federal Reserve policy.

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 73, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory.

Resistance level: 2855.00, 2875.00

Support level: 2835.00, 2825.00

GBP/USD，H4

The Pound Sterling capitalized on the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD breaking above its previous high, signaling a bullish bias. The greenback remains under pressure following a shift in U.S. trade policies and weaker-than-expected job data, which weighed on market sentiment. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the Bank of England's upcoming monetary policy decision, as expectations of a potential rate cut could directly impact the pair's momentum. A dovish stance from the BoE may limit further upside for GBP/USD, while any hawkish surprises could reinforce the pair's bullish breakout.

The GBPUSD has rebounded by more than 1.6% from its recent low level, suggesting a bullish bias for the pair. The RSI has broken above the 50 level, while the MACD has broken above the zero line, suggesting that bullish momentum is forming.

Resistance level: 1.2505, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2408, 1.2310