DBG Markets: Market Report for Apr 04, 2025

MARKET ANALYSIS

GOLDGOLD prices have consolidated and retraced to the EMA200, as we anticipated. The likelihood of a continuation higher remains strong due to tariff concerns. The MACD indicates increased selling volume from yesterday, but the RSI signaled an oversold condition, supporting expectations for a price rebound. However, it is uncertain whether this momentum will persist. We will monitor price movements closely but anticipate increased buying potential, especially as prices have maintained the bullish market structure.

SILVERSILVER prices have fallen significantly, contrary to our expectations. The MACD has picked up bearish volume, while the RSI shows selling normalization. Although this movement defied our projected direction, SILVER remains a viable hedge if GOLD reaches record highs. We will trade cautiously in the coming days but expect further selling pressure, given the markets shift toward a bearish bias.

DXYThe Dollar continues to exhibit increased selling momentum and volume, as confirmed by the MACD and RSI, aligning with our expectations. We anticipate further declines in the coming days. U.S. employment data and Fed Chair Powells speech will provide further market direction. While we remain cautious, we expect a moderate NFP and unemployment report.

Some analysts argue that the current situation is not an act of aggression leading to a trade war but rather a strategic diversification move to reduce U.S. dependence on international trade. However, concerns arise over whether the U.S. may reconsider rate cuts and even explore the possibility of rate hikes to combat inflationary pressures.

GBPUSDThe Pound continues to show strong bullish momentum, as reflected in the RSI and MACD, which indicate increasing volume and strength. The price structure remains firmly bullish, supporting expectations for further upside movement in the coming days.

AUDUSDThe Aussie dollar exhibits strength but remains uncertain. The market is still consolidating, as evident in the RSI and MACD movements. Additionally, the upper boundary of the current structure is acting as resistance, preventing a clear breakout. We remain on the sidelines, awaiting a decisive break in either direction before making any firm calls.

NZDUSDThe Kiwi continues its bullish movement, as we expected yesterday. Although 0.58528 acted as resistance, both the RSI and MACD indicate growing bullish momentum and volume. We anticipate continued buying pressure but remain cautious, as price movements may depend on Fed Chair Powells statements.

EURUSDEuro prices have broken significant resistance levels, confirming a bullish breakout. 1.10478 is now acting as support. The MACD recently crossed downward, but we view this as a temporary retracement before further buying resumes. The RSI continues to indicate strong bullish momentum, reinforcing our outlook for more upside movement in the coming days.

USDJPYThe Yen continues to strengthen as investors seek safe-haven alternatives. We expect the BOJ to maintain a hawkish stance, but global market dynamics could shift based on upcoming economic data. The MACD suggests a potential upward cross, signaling selling normalization, while the RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. Given this, we maintain a bearish outlook in the short term.

USDCHFThe Franc is proving to be a stable alternative, drawing investors away from riskier assets. The market's reaction was even stronger than anticipated. The RSI continues to show no signs of slowing bearish momentum, while the MACD confirms rising selling pressure. We expect further downside movement in the coming days.

USDCADThe CAD is experiencing increased selling pressure, following the Dollar‘s weakness. The MACD confirms growing bearish volume, while the RSI has reached overbought levels, reinforcing a shift toward stronger bearish momentum. With a clear market break, we are now more confident in seeking selling opportunities in the coming days. However, we will remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s comments and NFP report later.