DBG Markets: Market Report for Dec 24, 2025

Santa Present for the Markets: Strong US Data; Whats Next for Dollar, Gold & Oil？

Global markets continue to enjoy a Santa-like gift from recent US data releases, signaling that the US economy remains in a phase of high growth and stable inflation. Yesterdays final Q3 GDP revision delivered a surprisingly robust outcome.

· 4.3% Surge: The US economy didnt just grow—it expanded at its fastest pace in two years, registering 4.3%. This effectively dismantles the “Recession 2026” narrative that some bears had been clinging to earlier this month.

· Feds Strategic Shift: With PCE Prices QoQ holding at 2.8% despite this growth, the Federal Reserve is no longer pressured to “rescue” the economy.

The soft-landing scenario now appears even more favorable, potentially evolving into a “no landing” narrative. For the Fed, rate cuts are increasingly viewed as strategic normalization moves rather than emergency measures.

Currency & Metals: The "Yield Curve" Disconnect

A rare divergence is unfolding: the US economy is booming, yet the US Dollar remains soft while gold continues to rally.

US Dollar Outlook

Despite strong economic growth, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling near 97.50, reflecting that traders are prioritizing the Feds dovish guidance for 2026 over near-term fundamentals.

USD Index, H4 Chart

Technically, the Dollar remains on a bearish continuation pattern, having slipped below the 98.00–97.80 support zone and broken the recent rising wedge.

Outlook: The 97.50 level is now under test. A decisive break below this support would likely open the path to the next key support range near 97.00–96.80, keeping the broader outlook firmly bearish.

XAU/USD Outlook

Gold continues to benefit from low real yields and safe-haven demand, highlighting the disconnect between economic fundamentals and market positioning. Momentum remains clearly uptrend-biased.

XAU/USD, H4 Chart

Yesterdays pullback established support near 4,440, providing an imminent floor for upside. Gold is currently testing the 4,500 key psychological level, which may result in short-term consolidation.

Thin liquidity increases the risk of pullbacks, but the broader trend remains intact. On the upside, Fibonacci extension levels indicate 4,500, 4,570, and 4,630 as key resistance targets.

XAU/USD, M30

For intraday traders, 4,500 and 4,440 remain critical levels. Failure to hold above 4,500 may limit near-term upside, while 4,440 could act as support, keeping gold in a bullish-to-consolidation pattern in the short term.

Energy Focus: Oils High-Growth Floor

The oil market is finding support following the strong U.S. Q3 GDP print, which reassures traders that energy demand remains robust. The 4.3% GDP growth indicates higher-than-expected consumption, providing a bullish backdrop for crude prices.

Despite the positive demand signal, OPEC+ production increases and record U.S. output at 13.6 million bpd are limiting major upside. Overall, oil is trading in a range-bound pattern with a bullish tilt, positioning the market for steady performance as we head into 2026.

UKOIL, H4 Chart

For UKOIL (Brent), the false breakdown of the 60.00 level was quickly reclaimed, creating a potential false breakout scenario that could evolve into a bullish reversal, at least in the near term.

Over the broader outlook, upside may remain limited, keeping UKOIL in a bullish consolidation pattern. Technically, holding above the 60–61.20 support zone would support further near-term rebounds.

USOIL, H4 Chart

Similarly, for USOIL, key support now lies in the 57.30–56.30 range, which could validate the near-term rebound and maintain the bullish consolidation structure.

Bottom Line: Holiday Notice & Risk

As we head into the Christmas break, remember that quiet markets can be deceptively risky. With the holiday in full swing, U.S. markets will have early closures today.

· The 1:00 PM Exit: U.S. equities close early at 1:00 PM ET, with bond markets following at 2:00 PM ET.

· Liquidity Warning: With major institutional desks largely absent, thin liquidity can create sudden, erratic price gaps if any geopolitical news emerges over the holiday period. Traders should consider wider stops or lighter positions.

The Santa Rally remains intact, but caution is warranted due to reduced liquidity. Enjoy the holidays and stay vigilant.