If Trump enacts his campaign pledges of lower taxes and higher tariffs, the expected effect on the economy is that this would push up prices by boosting domestic demand and raising import costs. The Fed would have little choice but to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than is currently anticipated. The October CPI report due on Wednesday will be the first post-election test for rate cut bets following the repricing from the ‘Trump trade’. In September, the headline CPI rate fell to 2.4% y/y. However, it is expected to have edged up to 2.5 y/y in October. The month-on-month rate is projected at 0.2%, unchanged from the prior month. Core CPI is also forecast to have ticked up, rising from 3.3% to 3.4% y/y in October.