Mohicans markets :Fed officials' firm rate hike rhetoric boosts dollar, waits for OPEC+ meeting, or resists calls to increase output

基本面：

Fundamentals:

美联储官员称抗击通胀未结束，美债收益率飙升

U.S. bond yields soar as Fed official says fight against inflation is not over

芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示，他希望9月加息50个基点，然后以25个基点的步伐继续加息，直到2023年第二季度初。旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美联储对抗通胀之路“远未结束”，官员们坚定致力于维持物价稳定。克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特称，美联储还需要见到几个月的证据来证明通胀已经见顶，才会结束加息周期。美联储一众官员的鹰派言论，促使交易员减少了对明年降息的押注，美国国债收益率全线上升。美国财政部将季度借款预估上调至4440亿美元

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he wants to raise rates by 50 basis points in September and then continue at a 25 basis point pace until early in the second quarter of 2023. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the Fed's fight against inflation is “far from over” and officials are firmly committed to maintaining price stability. Cleveland Fed President Mester said the Fed will need to see months of evidence that inflation has peaked before ending the rate hike cycle. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board after hawkish comments from a number of Fed officials prompted traders to reduce bets on a rate cut next year. Treasury raises quarterly borrowing forecast to $444 billion.

职位空缺数量显著低于预期 美国的劳动力市场出现放缓迹象。美国劳工部在8月2日周二公布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）显示，在经济压力不断增加的情况下，美国劳动力需求略有放缓。

The number of job vacancies was significantly lower than expected. The US labor market showed signs of slowing. The U.S. Labor Department's job openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday, Aug. 2, showed a slight slowdown in U.S. labor demand amid mounting economic pressures.

欧佩克+观察员对拜登的增产呼吁能否实现表示怀疑

OPEC+ observers cast doubt on whether Biden's call to raise output will materialize

德国商业银行表示，欧佩克+会议结果具有高度不确定性。海湾国家提高石油产量 欧佩克+下调石油市场盈余预测。欧佩克的原油产量上月升至两年来的新高，增加27万桶/日，原因是欧佩克波斯湾成员国提供了额外的原油供应，弥补了其他地区的供应短缺。其中沙特占了其中约三分之二的增量。七国集团：确保能源供应、稳定市场、减缓能源价格上涨。七国集团声明称，七国将团结一致，密切协调，采取行动，减轻供应中断的影响。

Commerzbank said the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was highly uncertain. Gulf countries boost oil output OPEC+ cuts oil market surplus forecast. OPEC's crude output rose to a two-year high last month, rising by 270,000 bpd, as OPEC members in the Persian Gulf provided additional crude supplies to make up for shortages elsewhere. Among them, Saudi Arabia accounted for about two-thirds of the increase. G7: Ensuring energy supply, stabilizing markets, and slowing rising energy prices. The G7 statement said the seven countries will unite and coordinate closely to take action to mitigate the impact of supply disruptions.

盘面表现上：

On the Disk Performance:

北京时间周三(8月3日)亚市早盘，美元指数交投于106.34附近，周二美元受美联储官员坚定加息言论提振，上涨近1%，早前盘中一度下挫至近一个月低位；受益于地缘紧张局势升级，金价一度逼近月高至1788美元/盎司，随着美元和美债收益率的走高，黄金回落近30美元；投资者静待OPEC+会议，消息人士表示，将讨论适度增产。

Beijing time on Wednesday (August 3) in early Asian trading, the US dollar index traded around 106.34. On Tuesday, the US dollar rose nearly 1%, boosted by the Fed officials' firm remarks on raising interest rates. It fell to a nearly one-month low in early intraday trading; Due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions, the price of gold once approached a monthly high of $1,788 per ounce. As the dollar and U.S. bond yields rose, gold fell by nearly $30; investors waited for the OPEC+ meeting, and sources said a moderate increase in production would be discussed.

商品收盘方面，布伦特原油期货上涨0.5%，结算价报每桶100.54美元，美国原油期货上涨0.6%，结算价报每桶94.42美元；美国期金收高0.1%，报每盎司1789.70美元。

In terms of commodities closing, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.5% to settle at $100.54 a barrel, U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.6% to settle at $94.42 a barrel; U.S. gold futures ended up 0.1% at $1,789.70 an ounce.

美股收盘情况，标普500指数下跌0.66%，收报4091.32点。纳斯达克指数下跌0.16%，至12348.76点；道琼斯工业指数下跌1.23%，至32396.30点。

At the close of U.S. stocks, the S&P 500 fell 0.66% to close at 4091.32 points. The Nasdaq lost 0.16% to 12,348.76 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23% to 32,396.30.

技术面：

Technical:

美元：

Dollar:

北京时间周三(8月3日)亚市早盘，美元指数微涨，目前交投于106.33附近。美元指数最近有所回落，因投资者开始重新评估美联储在未来加息方面的激进程度。周二，多位美联储官员的发言暗示，短期内将有更多加息，美元指数大涨，最后收涨0.89%，报106.33。

Beijing time on Wednesday (August 3) in early Asian trading, the US dollar index rose slightly and is currently trading around 106.33. The U.S. dollar index has retreated recently as investors begin to reassess how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be on future rate hikes. On Tuesday, speeches by several Fed officials hinted that there will be more interest rate hikes in the short term, and the U.S. dollar index rose sharply, finally closing up 0.89% at 106.33.

投资者目前关注将于周五(8月5日）发布的美国7月非农数据。周三需要关注的大事件：费城联储主席哈克在费城联储第六届金融科技年会上发表讲话，里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金就通胀发表讲话

Investors are now focusing on U.S. non-farm payrolls data for July due on Friday (August 5). Big things to watch for on Wednesday: Philadelphia Fed President John Harker speaks at the Philadelphia Fed's Sixth Annual Fintech Conference, and Richmond Fed President John Balkin speaks on inflation.

如同我们昨日提醒的“不要过分看空美元”，昨日美元探底回升，完全预期之内，一直提示周线10周均线105附近探底回升大概率，连续两周调整基本告一段落。

As we reminded yesterday, “Don't be too bearish on the US dollar”, the US dollar bottomed and rebounded yesterday, and within full expectations, it has always suggested that the weekly 10-week moving average near 105 has a high probability of bottoming out and rebounding, and the adjustment for two consecutive weeks has basically come to an end.

关注阻力：108.5至110区域  关注支撑：104至105.16区域

Focus on resistance: 108.5 to 110 area    Focus on support: 104 to 105.16 area

黄金：

Gold:

周三（8月3日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡微跌，一度创三日新低至1754.90美元/盎司，隔夜多位美联储官员暗示将会有更多加息，并打消明年降息预期，数据显示美国劳动力市场依然吃紧，市场对美联储9月加息75个基点的预期升温，美元从月线低位强势反弹，录得7月11日以来最大单日涨幅，对金价打压明显。金价周二在创下近一个月新高至1787.91（接近5月16日低点强阻力）后震荡回落，收盘至1760关口附近。

During the Asian session on Wednesday (August 3), spot gold fluctuated slightly, hitting a three-day low of $1,754.90 per ounce. Overnight, many Fed officials hinted that there will be more interest rate hikes and dispelled expectations of interest rate cuts next year. Data showed that the labor market of US is still tight, and the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September have increased. The dollar rebounded strongly from the monthly low, recording the largest one-day increase since July 11, which significantly suppressed the price of gold. Gold prices on Tuesday hit a new high of 1787.91 in nearly a month (close to the strong resistance of the low on May 16), and then fell back and closed near the 1760 mark.

金价在强阻力位附近受阻回落，令金价重回跌势的可能性显著增加，但地缘局势担忧情绪有所升温，美国股市远离近两个月高位，道指大跌逾1%，金价仍守在1750关口上方，多头后市仍有机会。

The price of gold was blocked and fell near the strong resistance level, which significantly increased the possibility of the price of gold returning to the downward trend. However, concerns about the geopolitical situation have intensified. The US stock market is far from its high in nearly two months. The Dow fell by more than 1%, and the price of gold remained at the Above the 1750 mark, there is still a chance for the bulls in the market outlook.

整体来看，本周美联储官员偏向进一步发表鹰派讲话，投资者需要密切关注市场对美联储9月份加息预期的变化，该因素偏向利空金价；但投资者更需要关注经济数据尤其是美国经济数据的表现，目前市场对美国7月非农等经济数据的预期并不乐观，再加上地缘政治局势紧张，金价若能守住1740-1750区域支撑，后市才能够倾向于震荡上探1800关口附近阻力。

On the whole, Fed officials are inclined to make further hawkish speeches this week. Investors need to pay close attention to the changes in the market‘s expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike in September. This factor is biased against the price of gold, but investors need to pay more attention to economic data, especially the US economic data. The current market is not optimistic about the economic data such as non-agricultural data in the United States in July. Coupled with the tense geopolitical situation, if the price of gold can hold the support of the 1740-1750 area, the market will be inclined to oscillate and test the resistance near the 1800 mark.

图表上来看，月线分析之后看日线上黄金依旧处于下跌通道以内。本次反弹属于加息预期兑现之后的技术需要，更多的还是因为避险，毕竟全球依旧处于疫情之中，叠加又有猴痘疫情出现。同时在大周期上，全球货币紧缩，黄金暂无牛市，我们以宽幅区间震荡去看待。因此我们转变思路，主要集中关注下方阻力的有效性。

From the chart, after the monthly analysis, the daily gold is still within the falling channel. This rebound is a technical need after the expectation of interest rate hikes is fulfilled, and it is more due to hedging. After all, the world is still in the midst of the epidemic, and there is another monkeypox epidemic. At the same time, in the big cycle, the global currency is tightening, and there is no bull market in gold for the time being. We look at it with a wide range of fluctuations. Therefore, we changed our thinking and mainly focused on the effectiveness of the resistance below.

阻力：1776----1786                   支撑：1745----1720

Resistance: 1776----1786          Support: 1745----1720

原油：

Crude:

周三（8月3日）亚市盘初,美油交投于93.77美元/桶附近，早间API数据显示上周美国原油库存增加，市场静待晚间OPEC+会议；同时地缘紧张局势升级限制油价跌幅。

In early Asian trading on Wednesday (August 3), U.S. oil traded around $93.77 per barrel. API data in the morning showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased last week, and the market waited for the evening OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical tensions limited the decline in oil prices .

日内重点关注第31届OPEC与非OPEC产油国部长级会议举行。

The focus will be on the 31st ministerial meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries.

总体来看，库存增加，猴痘疫情蔓延拖累油价，但地缘紧张局势升级，且预计OPEC+抵制增产呼声，油价跌幅或受限，日内油价关注OPEC+会议，以及地缘局势，警惕油价波动或较大。

Overall, the increase in inventories and the spread of the monkeypox epidemic dragged down oil prices, but the escalation of geopolitical tensions, and it is expected that OPEC+ resists calls for production increases, the decline in oil prices may be limited. In the day, oil prices pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and the geopolitical situation, and be wary of oil price fluctuations or greater.

今日欧佩克会议，对原油走势影响很大。从目前盘面的走势来看，油价依托93附近支撑展开震荡，震荡偏弱势。在关键支撑附近不涨则下跌的概率增大。日线图K线实体已经收在95下方，是有跌破迹象，现在就差确认了，如果下破将打开下跌空间。。

Today's OPEC meeting has a great impact on the trend of crude oil. Judging from the current trend of the disk, oil prices rely on the support near 93 to start shocks, and the shocks are weak. There is an increased probability of a decline if it does not rise near a key support. The K-line entity of the daily chart has closed below 95, which is a sign of a break below, and it is almost confirmed now. If it breaks down, it will open up a falling space.

阻力：95.22至100.5  支撑：91.45至91.99

Resistance:95.22 to 100.5  Support:91.45 to 91.99

（以上分析仅代表分析师观点不作为任何投资指导建议，对因与任何个人投资相关的任何直接或间接交易风险、损失或收益而导致的任何损失或损害不承担任何责任。）

         (The above analysis only represents the opinions of analysts and does not serve as any investment guidance recommendation, and does not assume any responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any direct or indirect transaction risks, losses or gains related to any personal investment.)