MHMarkets：Gold Bulls Bet on a Rebound, Crude Oil Spot Price Long and Short Competition
Zusammenfassung：On Monday, September 27, during the Asian session and the Asia-Europe session, spot gold fluctuated and dropped, extending the decline of last Friday, reaching a minimum of $1,626.60 per ounce, the lowest since April 7, 2020.
Reminder: This article involves the technical analysis of 6 varieties of spot gold, spot silver, U.S. crude oil, Europe and the United States, GBPUSD, Australia and the United States. Starting from the distribution of market chips, the change data of options positions published on the CME official website is superimposed on the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry to more accurately mark the market trading sentiment in important price ranges.
The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:
The opinions and strategies provided in this article are for reference only. The data are all from large brokers. Please check them according to your needs. They are not investment suggestions. Please read the statement terms at the end of the article carefully.
Key Data
Market Overview
Long and Short News
On Monday, September 27, during the Asian session and the Asia-Europe session, spot gold fluctuated and dropped, extending the decline of last Friday, reaching a minimum of $1,626.60 per ounce, the lowest since April 7, 2020. The British government launched a tax cut policy, and the pound fell sharply; Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Sunday that he remains confident the central bank will be able to keep inflation in check without causing mass unemployment in the economy, given the economy's continued momentum. Together, the U.S. dollar refreshed more than 20-year highs, putting gold under heavy pressure. Geopolitical tensions, a global economic recession, and a drop in global stock markets are also expected to provide safe-haven support for gold prices.
Of course, many Fed officials will speak one after another this week, and it is more likely to be hawkish, which may limit the rebound of gold prices. The poor performance of September PMI data for the euro zone, Germany, France and the United Kingdom released last Friday intensified fears of a global recession. However, the prospect of sharp interest rate hikes by most central banks in the world still looms over the market, and the global stock market generally fell, suppressing the prospect of crude oil demand; The U.S. dollar continues to soar, setting a new high of more than 20 years, and the U.S. crude oil rig data has risen to a nearly two-and-a-half-year high, suggesting that U.S. production will continue to increase, which also weighs on oil prices.
The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on September 27, 2022, Beijing time.
Technical Point of View
| CME Group options layout changes:1675 Bullish slightly reduced, bearish reduced significantly, resistance weakened1650 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, resistance weakens1640 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, long target1620 Bullish increase, bearish increase, and the downside action energy is vigilant1610 Bullish slightly reduced, bearish sharply reduced, bear target and support1600 Bullish unchanged, bearish period is greatly reduced but the stock is large, short targetOrder flow key point labeling (spot price):1688 The high point of the Fed's interest rate decision on the night, breaking through to stabilize may mean that the current short trend is suspended1668 Trend rebound key resistance1657-1660 Daily key resistance zone1642-1648 Strong resistance area, break through the short-term can pay attention to further rebound kinetic energy1630 The first resistance level, the intraday boundary between long and short1600-1610 Daily line level bears first target and support1550-1560 Daily level short second targetTechnical AnalysisThe speeches of Fed officials still emphasized controlling inflation, and the persistent hawkish attitude still put pressure on the price of gold, and gold showed no sign of reversing the decline. However, from the perspective of the options market, the bears left the market on a large scale, and the bearish sentiment weakened, while the bulls bet on a rebound near 1640.During the day, first focus on the resistance near 1642. A large number of long bets may provide rebound momentum for the gold price. If an effective breakthrough is formed, the resistance at 1652 may be further tested. But from the perspective of capital betting, the upward momentum after breaking through 1652 may not be too great, and the secondary resistance is at 1677. On the other hand, there is a certain short stock at 1622 below, and there are put options that continue to enter the market. The breakout may expand the downward momentum. The short targets are at 1612 and 1602. But the bears in both positions have seen substantial exits, with bears relaxing bets on a progressive decline. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
| Changes in CME Group's options layout (Futures prices in December ):19.2-19.25 bullish increase sharply, bearish unchanged, resistance zone19 Bullishness increases, bearishness decreases sharply, resistance weakens18.75 Bullish increase, bearish equal decrease, resistance level18.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long and short fight for points18.25 Bullish unchanged, bearish sharply reduced, downside momentum weakened18 Bullish slightly reduced, bearish greatly reduced but the stock is large, and the bearish target Order flow key point labeling (spot price):19.7 Starting point on Friday, strong resistance19.2 Support turns into resistance, and stabilization is expected to ease short-term downward pressure18.8-18.85 The key resistance 18.5 The first resistance level, and if it can break through at the end, it shows that silver is still under severe pressure18.3 Key Support - Long Cost Area18 The first goal after breaking Technical AnalysisPuts eased bets on further declines after silver's decline, with plenty of bears exiting the previous bearish target. Although the bulls are seeing signs of entry for the first time, it may be difficult to reverse the pressure on silver in terms of betting strength. Near 18.5, it fell into a long-short competition, and the shorts left the market, and the bulls had a slight advantage.The upper resistance is at 18.75. If the breakthrough is successful, the bullish sentiment may gradually recover, but the short advantage of 19 still constitutes a strong pressure on silver, and the long target is near the resistance range of 19.25. But if it continues to break down, it will see the 18 bearish target. Although 18 shorts have left the market in large numbers, the stock advantage still poses a downside risk to silver, and we will pay attention to the defense near 18 during the day.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
| CME Group options layout changes:82.5 Bullish decrease sharply, bearish increase, strong resistance80 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bulls target and resistance78 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target and resistance77 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, first support76 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, retracement target75 Bullish increase, bearish decrease greatly but the stock is large, the short target and support73 Bullish slight increase, bearish increase, bearish targetThe key points of the order flow are marked:83 Strong resistance to the trend81.5-82 Key support turned resistance80.7-81 Last Friday, the starting point of heavy volume decline in the US market, an important resistance level80 Short-term strong resistance level (on Monday, the Asian plate and the U.S. plate stepped back to the level)77.6-78 The first resistance zone76.5 The first support during the day75-75.5 Option bet below short targetTechnical AnalysisOn Tuesday, oil prices continued to be affected by demand concerns. After the US session started, it was blocked by resistance near 80, and then continued to fall, but closed above 76. It began to rebound slightly after the opening today.In terms of options, both long and short sides in the range of 76-79 have added new bets, and the contention is strong, suggesting that oil prices may remain range-bound, of which 78 will be the rebound target. If this position is broken, it is expected to test the upper limit of the range at 79, and then look to the bullish target of 80, but it is worth noting that the position near 82.5 is a position where bulls leave the market in large quantities, and there may be strong resistance.In the downward direction, 77 will be the first support for the fall. If it falls below, it may look towards the fall target of 76, and then the bullish action will gradually decrease. However, there is a large number of put options exiting near the bear target of 75, which will provide some support, and then the next bear target will be seen at 73.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
| CME Group options layout changes：0.9850 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, rebound target0.98 Bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is large, strong resistance0.9750 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target0.97 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, strong resistance0.96 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, support level0.9550 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, support level0.95 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, short targetTechnical AnalysisOn Monday, the euro against the dollar rebounded after experiencing a flash crash in the Asian session, and the U.S. session stepped back to 0.96 and held steady. From the perspective of options changes, 0.96 may have short profits and leave the market. The support here can continue to be concerned. After falling below, the short target will move down to 0.95-0.94, but during the period, you can pay attention to the 0.9550 support.On the other hand, it is still not easy for the euro to achieve an effective rebound. 1160 lots put options were added at 0.97. This is expected to be the nearest defensive position for the bears. If the exchange rate rises to this level and fails to effectively break through, be wary of the risk of falling back. The breakthrough is to see 0.9750. Judging from the changes in options long and short, the willingness to enter the market of put options above 0.98 has been greatly reduced.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
| CME Group options layout changes：1.10 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease slightly but stock dominates, resistance level1.0950 Bullish increase sharply, bearish period increase, rebound target1.0850 Bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is dominant, resistance level1.08 Bullish increase, bearish increase, support level1.07 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, breakout alert for downward momentum1.0550 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, short targetTechnical AnalysisGBPUSD rebounded after a flash crash in the Asian session on Monday. Before the U.S. session, it rose to 1.09 but failed to stabilize. Bank of England Governor Baileys speech gave the pound too much confidence at the end. However, from the perspective of options changes, both longs and shorts have made large bets in places far from the current price. The put options mainly focus on 1.07, while the call options mainly focus on 1.08 and above. 1.08 stabilized, you can pay attention to the possibility of further rebound, resistance 1.0850, 1.09, rebound target 1.09500On the other hand, if the GBPUSD fails to hold 1.08, it means that the rebound momentum is still insufficient, and we need to be alert to the increase in the short momentum after breaking 1.07 again. The short target is 1.0550 and 1.04.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
| CME Group options layout changes：0.66 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, resistance level0.655 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease sharply, resistance weaken0.65 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly, rebound target and resistance0.6475 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, first support0.645 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply, fall back target and support0.64 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase slightly and the stock is large, short targetTechnical AnalysisThe dollar is strong and the economic outlook is volatile. As a risk currency, the Australian dollar is difficult to improve. It fell below the previous target of 0.65 yesterday, but then stabilized near the support level of 0.645, and rebounded slightly at the opening today.In terms of options distribution, longs in the range of 0.645-0.65 have continuously added a large number of positions, and bearish funds have also added new bets, so there may be long and short competition in this range. Among them, 0.65 will be the rebound target and resistance. If it breaks through, the bulls are expected to strengthen, and they may look to the resistance level of 0.655, but there is also a large number of short funds retreating at this position.On the downside, 0.675 will be the first support. If it falls below, it may look to the lower limit of the range and the fall target of 0.645, and the short target is near 0.64.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 27. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy. |
Statement | Disclaimer
Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.
Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.
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