Mohicans markets：10.18-MHM European Perspective

On Tuesday, October 18, in the Asian session, spot gold rebounded in shock, once touching the 1660 mark, and currently trading around 1655 dollars.

US crude oil rose in a volatile manner, and the current trading volume is around us $86.34/barrel. On Monday, the new British Chancellor of the exchequer Hunter overturned Truss's economic plan and improved market risk appetite. On Monday, global stock markets generally rose sharply and the US dollar fell sharply, supporting oil prices together; Hunt, the new British Chancellor of the exchequer, overturned Truss's economic plan on Monday, and the dollar index fell sharply overnight. At noon on Tuesday, it was reported that the Bank of England would delay the quantitative tightening policy until the British Treasury bond market returned to calm, which refreshed the dollar from a week and a half low to around 111.77, providing an opportunity for the gold price to rebound.

However, the market has reached consensus on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points in November. At present, the market has warmed up to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a further 75 basis points in December, which is higher than the previous 50 basis points. This may still limit the rebound space of gold prices, and even expose gold prices to further downside risks.

This trading day focused on API crude oil inventory series data, the monthly rate of industrial output in September in the United States, the ZEW economic climate index in October in the euro area, the speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Bostik of Atlanta and Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari of Minneapolis, the speeches of officials of the European Central Bank and the related news of the geographical situation, and the further news of British fiscal policy.

Mohicans Markets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on October 18, 2022 Beijing time.

Technical analysis

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in December):

1700 Bullish sharply reduced, put options unchanged, resistance level

1690 Bullish increased significantly, bearish increased, resistance level

1670 Bullish and bearish increased significantly, key resistance

1655 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased, key support

1630 Bullish slightly increased, bearish increased, short target, support level

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

1694-1700 non-agricultural data back top bottom transition, strong resistance

1682-1684 Strong resistance area

1672-1674 CPI data is the back drop point, which is the key resistance. The gold price is more under pressure under this level

1668 High level tested twice overnight, with strong intraday resistance

1660 The first resistance level during the day

1653 Short line support

1640-1642 Important support

1625 Support position, effective break looks front low near 1610-1614

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 18. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in December):

19.50-19.55 Bullish slightly increased, bearish slightly increased, resistance level

19.25 Bullish slightly increased, bearish unchanged, long target

19 Bullish increased, bearish decreased significantly, long target, resistance weakens

18.85 Bullish increased, bearish unchanged, long target

18.70-18.75 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased, key range

18.50 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased, support level

18.30-18.35 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased, support zone

18-18.05 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased, support area

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

20 Key resistance

19.10-19.25 The starting point of large-scale decline after CPI data, an important resistance level

18.95 Resistance level

18.57 Pulled up the rising position overnight, the first support of the day

18 Important support

17.5-17.65 Front low area

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 18. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Key point marking of order flow (futures price in November):

89 Bullish increased significantly, bearish decreased, long target and resistance level

88 Bullish increased, bearish slightly decreased, resistance level

87 Bullish increased, bearish slightly increased, the first resistance level

85 Bullish increased significantly and stocks were large, while bearish decreased but stocks were large, which was a key support

84 Bullish increased, bearish decreased, secondary support

82.5 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly increased, support level

80 Bullish slightly reduced but large stock, bearish significantly increased and large stock, short target

Order flow key point marking:

88.2-88.3 Last Friday, the US market started to fall, the top to bottom transition, and strong resistance

87 Resistance level

85.6 Gap, key resistance level in the day

85 Gap, the oil price tends to decline below this level

84 First support

82.5-83  618 retracement position of second round upward and strong support position

81 Gap, key support for the gap, look at 79 after breaking

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 18. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.00 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish decrease, long target

0.9950 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease slightly, resistance

0.99-0.9925 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, rebound target and resistance

0.985 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, fall back target and support

0.98 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, next fall back target

0.975 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, short target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 18. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.15 Bullish increase slightly and the stock is large, bearish decrease slightly, long target and resistance

1.145-1.147 Bullish increase slightly and the stock is large, bearish unchanged, rebound target

1.14 Bullish slightly decreasing, bearish unchanged, first resistance

1.135 Bullish increase and the stock is large, bearish increase slightly, fall back to first support

1.13-1.132 Bullish increase slightly, bearish unchanged, next support

1.125 Bullish decrease slightly but the stock is large, bearish unchanged, key support

1.12 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, short target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on October 18. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Special Instructions:

This article involves the key point labeling and technical analysis of spot gold, spot silver, and U.S. crude oil. With reference to the change data of options positions published on the CME official website, the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry is superimposed. Starting from the distribution of market chips, it is more accurate to calculate Mark the sentiment of the market in important price ranges.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:

Statement|Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.