Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

November 10, 2022--Fundamental Reminder

☆ 17:00 ECB publishes Economic Bulletin.

☆ 22:00 Feds Harker speaks on the U.S. economic outlook. Harker previously said that he needs to see a sustained decline in inflation before changing the policy outlook. 

☆ The following day 02:00 U.S. releases total number of oil wells drilled for the week ending Nov. 11.

☆ The following day 02:30 Fed[s George speaks at the meeting. George previously expresses support for continued rate hikes and expects rates to remain high for some time, but going too fast could disrupt financial markets.

Market Overview 

Review of global market trend

On Wednesday, November 10, the dollar index rebounded to regain 110, and closed up 0.75% at 110.45. The euro turned lower against the dollar and once lost parity, the pound fell through the 1.15 and 1.14 hurdles against the dollar in quick succession, and the dollar rose through 146 against the yen again.

U.S. bond yields moved shakily during the day, extending losses in the late U.S. session to a low of 4.05%, with the U.S. closing back up to 4.09%; 2-year U.S. bond yields accelerated their decline in the U.S. session to a low of 4.56%, closing at 4.58%, down nearly 2%.

Spot gold retreated from more than four-week highs, forcing down the $1,700 mark to close down 0.35% at $1,706.62 per ounce; spot silver closed down 1.39% at $21.05 per ounce.

Crude oil fell about 3% for two consecutive days as U.S. inventories increased overlapping with demand concerns. WTI crude oil lost $86, closing down 3.42% at $85.63 per barrel; Brent crude oil lost $93, closing down 2.85% at $92.37 per barrel.

U.S. stocks opened collectively lower and extended their losses in late trading, halting a three-game winning streak. The Dow closed down 1.95%, the Nasdaq closed down 2.48% and the S&P 500 closed down 2.08%. Most sectors, including popular Chinese stocks and new energy vehicle stocks, were lower.

European stocks were mixed, Germany‘s DAX30 index closed down 0.16%; FTSE 100 index closed down 0.14%; France’s CAC40 index closed down 0.17%; Europe‘s Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.3%; Spain’s IBEX35 index closed up 0.5%; Italys FTSE MIB index closed up 0.36%.

Hot spots in the market

1. The latest election situation of the mid-term elections in the United States: according to comprehensive foreign media data, Georgia will hold a runoff election because both the donkey and elephant parties have less than half of the votes; Wisconsin is owned by the Republican Party; Arizona and Nevada are led by Democrats and Republicans respectively; As of 7:00 this morning, after the Alaska seats locked by the Republicans were included, the Democratic Party/Republican Party has won 48/49 seats in the Senate and 207/183 seats in the House of Representatives respectively, and there are still 3 and 45 seats left to be announced. There is a high probability that the node determining the control of the Senate will be postponed to the Georgia runoff election on December 6.

2. Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ordered the troops to withdraw from Kherson.

3. Biden: It is planned to decide to participate in the 2024 general election early next year and ensure Trump will not be elected. There is no guarantee that the United States can escape inflation.

4. According to the Wall Street Journal, Binance has given up the acquisition of FTX; FTX faces a liquidity gap of US $8 billion.

5. Gensler, Chairman of the SEC of the United States: Some cryptocurrency acts undermine the provisions of the securities law.

6. Federal Reserve Officer Williams: The current inflation is obviously much higher than the long-term goal of the Federal Reserve, and the uncertainty of the inflation path increases.

Geopolitical situation

Conflict situation:

1. Russian Defense Minister Shoygu ordered the troops to withdraw from Kherson. The Russian army will withdraw from some areas of Kherson and no longer occupy Kherson City, the capital of Kherson State on the west bank of Dnieper River, which is the only regional capital occupied by the Russian army since the conflict in February.

2. Adviser to the President of Ukraine: Some Russian troops are still stationed in the Kherson region, and Russia is sending more personnel to the region. It is too early to talk about Russia's withdrawal from the Kherson region.

3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Ukrainian troops attacked Russian positions in the Kherson region, but suffered heavy losses and retreated.

4. According to the data on the online map of the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, the air raid alarm was announced throughout Ukraine.

5. Ukraine media reported on the 9th local time that Zelensky held a meeting of the Supreme Command on the same day. The meeting focused on the situation on the front line, coordinated the military operations of the Ukrainian armed forces on the front line, and listened to the report on the weapons and ammunition support of the Ukrainian armed forces and their preparations for winter.

Food situation:

1. Ukraine: It hopes to extend the Black Sea Food Export Agreement for at least one year and seek to include more ports.

2. Spokesman of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Black Sea grain trade involving Russia has not made progress. The United States and the European Union continue to hinder the export of fertilizer and grain from Russia.

Energy situation:

1. The website “Strana. ua” reported that the National Energy Corporation of Ukraine announced a time-sharing power outage across the territory on the 9th.

2. EU Energy Commissioner Simson: The European Commission will discuss the price of natural gas with countries on Friday. The European Commission will propose an outline of the price revision mechanism.

Institutional perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：The expected path of USD/JPY has been raised to 155, 155 and 140 after 3, 6 and 12 months (previously it was 150, 135 and 125).

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：Short sterling against yen may be a more attractive trading strategy.

3. MUFG：Investors weigh whether the interest rate expectation is at the top, and the dollar may face selling.

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