Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

November 14, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ To be determined, OPEC will release monthly crude oil market report. Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman said on Friday that OPEC+would remain cautious in oil production.

☆ At 18:00, the euro area announced the monthly rate of industrial output in September.

☆ At 20:30, the four central banks of the United States, Britain, Europe and Canada held a meeting.

☆ At 00:30 the next day, Brainard, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, delivered a speech.

☆ Position report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission at 04:30 the next day.

Market Overview

Resumption of global market trendLast Friday, on November 11, the US dollar index continued to fall. At one point in the day, it fell nearly 2%, and closed 1.41% lower at 106.41. Last week, it fell nearly 4%, hitting a new low in nearly three months. The onshore RMB closed at 7.1106 against the US dollar at 16:30 on November 11, up 1368 points from the previous trading day. The US debt market was closed on Friday for the Veterans' Day holiday.

Gold continued to hit its highest level since August, its best weekly performance in more than a year. Spot gold rose 0.89% to US $1771.29/ounce; Spot silver closed 0.12% higher at $21.71/oz.

Boosted by China's epidemic prevention policy, international crude oil further rose. WTI crude oil rose by more than 4%, and finally ended up 3.16% at 88.91 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 2.73% higher at USD 95.82/barrel.

The rise in US stocks slowed, with the Dow rising 0.1%, the Nasdaq up 1.88% and the S&P 500 up 0.93%. WSB concept stocks and cruise stocks led the way, while a small number of sectors such as education stocks and vaccine stocks fell.

European shares split, with mixed gains and losses. Germany's DAX30 index closed 0.58% higher, Britain's FTSE 100 index closed 0.59% lower, France's CAC40 index closed 0.58% higher, Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed 0.57% higher, Spain's IBEX35 index closed 0.43% lower, and Italy's FTSE MIB index closed 0.25% higher.

Market Focus

1. U.S. midterm elections: the Democratic Party took the Nevada seat to become a lock on the control of the Senate; the current number of Democratic/Republican Senate seats is 50/49, the House of Representatives is 204/212, several states in the western region have not yet completed counting, need 218 seats to control the House of Representatives.

2. Fed Governor Waller: signaling a slowdown in rate hikes but no easing poses a communication challenge; considering a possible 50 basis point hike at the next meeting, or 50 basis points after that as well.

3. According to people familiar with the matter, FTX's former chief executive officer SBF was interviewed by Bahamian police and regulators on Saturday. SBF is currently under surveillance by Bahamian authorities and had allegedly looked for ways to escape to Dubai.

4. The Financial Times: FTX bankruptcy cut off a large source of funding for the U.S. Democratic Party campaign; FTX had only $900 million in liquidity before filing for bankruptcy, compared to $9 billion in liabilities.

5. Turkey's Istanbul Independence Street bombing has killed six people and injured 53 others.

6. Ukraine negotiator: Russia-Ukraine conflict talks may resume in the second half of next year.

7. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan: A G20 communiqué is expected to be developed.

8. U.S. presidential adviser Dunn: debt ceiling and aid to Ukraine are both top issues after the midterm elections.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Russian troops continue to carry out strikes against Ukrainian forces in Kharkov region, Zaporozhye region and other places, and Ukraine says it struck new Russian positions on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson region.

2. Ukrainian troops launched attacks on Novokahovka hydroelectric power station and Novokahovka city using rockets and artillery on Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

3. A fire broke out in an entertainment center in Chernomorsk, Odessa region, Ukraine; no casualties have been reported yet.

4. Zelensky: Fighting in the Donetsk region is as fierce as in previous days, and the Russian attack has not abated.

Assistance Situation:

1. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan: U.S. will not ease support for Ukraine, and will discuss with Congress on getting more resources.

2. Russian media: EU approved aid of 225 million euros for 100% acquisition of Gazprom's German subsidiary.

Others：

1. The head of the Ukrainian delegation in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Arakhamiya, believes that new negotiations between Kiev and Moscow may take place in the second half of 2023.

2. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: The West is moving towards confrontation. The United States and its partner countries insist on an absolutely unacceptable assessment of the situation in Ukraine at the ASEAN summit. No joint statement will be issued after the ASEAN summit.

3. Ukrainian negotiator: Russia-Ukraine conflict talks may resume in the second half of next year.

4. Zelensky confirmed that he will participate in the G20 summit by video.

5. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Vilshnin says nearly 280,000 tons of Russian fertilizer have been seized at European ports.

Institutional Perspective

1. Goldman Sachs：German swap spreads are expected to tighten further.

2. SOCIETE GENERALE：Shorting GBPJPY may be a more attractive trading strategy.

3. MUFG：Potential split in US Congress could hit the dollar.

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