Mohicans markets：MHM Today News

☆ At 21:30, the United States will release the CPI data for December. At present, the market expects that the annual rate of CPI will drop to 6.5%, and the monthly rate will be the same as last month. It is worth noting that this data may be the key to the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase of 25 or 50 basis points in February.

☆ At 21:30, the United States will also announce the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits until the week of January 7. The market expects that it will record 215000, up from the previous value of 204000.

☆ At 21:45, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck will deliver a speech on the economic outlook of the United States. Investors can pay attention to their views on the CPI data and the pace of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate increase. At present, the Federal Reserve has emerged as the first official to support the interest rate increase of 25 basis points.

☆ At 00:30 the next day, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad made a speech. Before that, his “hawkish tone” had softened, and investors could continue to pay attention to their views on the pace of the Fed's subsequent interest rate increase.

Market Overview

Review of global market trend

On Wednesday, the spot gold started to rise in the Asian session, reaching the intraday high of 1886.53 US dollars, but it gave up all the gains and turned down in the US session, and finally closed up 0.07% to 1875.46 US dollars/ounce; Spot silver once stood at the $24 mark in the day, and then fell with the fall of gold, finally closing down 0.78% at $23.75/ounce. The copper price has exceeded US $9000/ton for the first time since June last year.

The US dollar index maintained a narrow range of volatility and ended down 0.04% at 103.26; The yield of 10-year US Treasuries fell back to 3.543%.

In terms of crude oil, the two oil companies began to rise in the European market, and expanded their gains in the US market, and rose more than 4% in succession. WTI crude oil rose 4.02% to 77.68 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 4.2% at US $82.89/barrel.

The three major stock indexes of the US stock market fluctuated and rose throughout the day, with the Dow Index up 0.8%, the Nasdaq Index up 1.76%, and the S&P 500 Index up 1.28%, all reaching new highs in nearly a month.

European stocks closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index up 1.17% to 14947.91; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.4% to 7724.98; The European Stoxx 50 Index rose 1.04% to 4099.76.

Market Focus

1. Boston Fed President Collins is the Fed official who is currently the most clearly inclined to support the next 25BP rate hike.

2. Russia's central bank will start to buy RMB as wealth fund reserve from Jan. 13.

3. Turkey's stock index triggered another meltdown downward in the short term, closing down 5.2%.

4. German Chancellor Scholz supported the establishment of a joint EU fund to counter the US green subsidy plan.

5. Sources: Freeport LNG may postpone the schedule of restarting the Texas plant again until February.

6. The U.S. government extended the new crown infection public health emergency until April this year, experts say it may be the last time.

7. Sources said Tesla is about to reach a preliminary agreement to build a factory in Indonesia, with the factory targeting an annual production capacity of 1 million vehicles.

8. Vale CEO: base metals business stake (10%) received multiple offers, the size of the spin-off may exceed the parent company.

9. The UK Financial Conduct Authority blocked the LME from restarting nickel trading in the Asian session, sources said. Lunar nickel fell over 5% in response.

10. The FAA announced a mission notification system failure at 6:30 a.m. EDT, and announced the troubleshooting around 8:50 a.m. The incident caused over 8,000 flights to be delayed. The failure may have been caused by a corrupted digital file.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation：

1. Chief of the Russian Army General Staff Gerasimov became the commander-in-chief of the joint forces for the special military operation, while the deputy commanders-in-chief were Senior General Surovikin, commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force, Senior General Salyukov, commander-in-chief of the Army, and Admiral Alexei Kim, deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff.

2. The Russian Defense Ministry informed on November 11 that Russian forces took control of the town of Bodgorodnoye on the outskirts of Soledad in the direction of Donetsk. Soledad has been blocked by Russian airborne troops from the north and south. The Ukrainian side says the information is not true.

3. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister: Russian troops tried to break through Ukrainian defenses and fully capture Soredar, but failed.

4. Putin: Russia has captured some areas, but the situation in these areas remains critical.

5. Spokesman of the Eastern Command of Ukraine: The intensity of fighting near the Atemu region in eastern Ukraine is comparable to the Second World War.

6. Kremlin: Putin is willing to negotiate on Ukraine.

7. The head of the Russian Wagner Group said that the territory of the city of Soledad has been completely liberated from the Ukrainian army, eliminating about 500 Ukrainians.

8. The Russian ambassador to the U.S. said that the U.S. training of Ukrainian troops in the use of Patriot missile systems further confirms the U.S. de facto involvement in the conflict.

Energy Situation：

1. Kazakhstan plans to export 20 thousand tons of oil to Germany during January using the “Friendship” oil transportation pipeline across Russia, which has already received verbal permission from the Russian side, said Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Bolat. Cooperation with Russia in the field of gas is still under negotiation.

2. Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Russian oil and gas companies say that they have no problems with export contracts, and we ask companies not to consider the oil price ceiling.

3. When talking about the possibility of imposing two price caps (by the West) on Russian oil products, the Kremlin said that Russia will do everything to ensure its interests in the energy market.

Assistance Situation：

1. Polish President Duda: Poland wants to provide tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition.

2. German government spokesman: We are closely coordinating with the United States, France, Britain and other countries on the supply of tanks to Ukraine.

3. Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tajani told the Italian Parliament that Italy is ready to provide Ukraine with as many weapons as possible, but will report to Parliament beforehand.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Oil prices are expected to rebound to $110 per barrel by the third quarter.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

High interest rates are likely to support the euro throughout the year.

Kit Juckes, chief global foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, believes that the euro should be bought low unless there are new developments in the geopolitical situation. If not for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affecting inflation and economic growth, public finances and terms of trade in Europe, the euro should now be trending significantly higher against the dollar, approaching the 1.20 level. Of course, the direct impact of the conflict on the economy and the exposure of the negative impact of the European energy crisis on confidence are important. However, if the impact of the conflict does not intensify or disappear altogether, our interest rate forecasts warrant another four-digit rise in EURUSD this year, which is consistent with our forecast for EURUSD to end the year at 1.12.

03

MUFG

The Bank of England eased its policy stance and the pound may fall with it.

Mitsubishi UFJ recently said that the pound may face a decline in the future because the Bank of England will no longer raise interest rates as sharply as the market expects. But the performance of the pound also depends on risk sentiment. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group currency market analyst Lee Hardman said in a report that the weakening of the Bank of England's monetary policy will itself be detrimental to the pound and pose upside risks to the EURGBP, especially in the case of the European Central Bank recently declared that the future will be firm and substantial interest rate hikes. But risk sentiment is also important for the pound, as it can offset the impact of yield spreads.