Mohicans markets ：MHM Today News

☆ At 9:00, the Third Plenary Session of the National People's Congress is held to vote on the draft decision on the State Council's institutional reform program, the election of the President of the People's Republic of China, etc.

☆ At 11:00, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate resolution. At 14:30, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda holds a press conference on monetary policy.

☆ At 21:30, the U.S. quarterly non-farm payrolls for February are announced, which is expected to increase by 205,000; the U.S. unemployment rate for February is also announced, which is expected to remain at a record low of 3.4%.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, spot gold rebounded and pulled up sharply in the U.S. market on positive data, reaching a high of 1835.56, eventually closing up 0.85% at $1830.88 per ounce, ending three consecutive trading days of decline; spot silver retreated most of its intraday gains in late trading, eventually closing up 0.14% at $20.07 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar index fell from a 3-month high to close down 0.435% at 105.25. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board as the Fed's bets on a 50 basis point rate hike in March cooled. 2-year U.S. bond yields fell below 5%, once by nearly 20 basis points. 10-year U.S. bond yields closed down 1.73% at 3.907%.

International crude oil generally fell before rising, with three consecutive daily losses. WTI crude oil touched the 78 mark upward during the session before turning sharply downward, finally closing down 1.2% at $75.56 per barrel; Brent crude oil set a new two-week low, finally closing down 1.21% at $81.67 per barrel.

As Biden's budget proposal proposed to impose heavier taxes on the rich, U.S. stocks opened higher and closed lower, with the Dow closing down 1.66%, the Nasdaq closing down 2.05% and the S&P 500 closing down 1.84%. Popular Chinese stocks were lower across the board, with bank stocks and new energy vehicle stocks sinking intraday. JDcom closed down about 11% after the performance, and Silvergate closed down about 42%.

Most of the major European stock indices closed lower. Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.01% at 15633.21 points; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.63% at 7879.98 points; Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.05% at 4286.12 points.          

Market Focus

1. Biden's budget for fiscal year 2024: next year's expenditure will be 6.9 trillion US dollars, and the deficit will rise to 1.8 trillion US dollars. It is expected that this year's US GDP will be+0.6%, and inflation will be+4.3%. It is planned to increase the millionaire's capital gains tax to 39.6%, cut the oil and gas tax preference, and fill the tax loophole of crypto transactions. This proposal will almost certainly be rejected by the Republicans seeking to reduce spending.  

2. The Bank of Silicon Valley sought to replenish capital after suffering investment losses, which triggered a sharp decline in US bank shares.

3. The London Gold and Silver Association began to review the status of qualified delivery of Perth Mint in Australia.

4. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed on Wednesday that the US plans to cancel the COVID-19 testing requirements for inbound passengers from China.

5. The Panama Canal Authority plans to increase the tolls due to the reduction of vessel traffic.

6. American challenger enterprises: The number of layoffs in American challenger enterprises has been the largest since 2009 so far this year.

7. The French senators voted in favor of raising the legal retirement age from 62 to 64, which will be submitted to the House of Commons for consideration next week. The country will continue to face fierce strikes.

8. The House of Representatives of the People's Congress of Japan approved Kazuo Noda as the new governor of the Bank of Japan, and approved Shinichi Ueda and Yoshihiro Ichimano as the new deputy governors of the Bank of Japan. The Senate will continue to vote on Friday.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict situation:

1. Ukrainian military: Russia dispatched 8 UAVs and launched 81 missiles to Ukraine in the early morning air strike on the 9th.

2. Local officials of Ukraine: Russian bombing has attacked many areas of Ukraine, including Kharkov and Odessa, and power outages have occurred in some places.

3. Lithuanian intelligence agency: Russia is capable and willing to continue military operations in Ukraine this year. Russia can mobilize all resources of the country. Russia has sufficient resources to continue military operations in Ukraine for two years.

4. The Russian Ministry of Defense: After the “terrorist attack” in the Bryansk region, it retaliated against the infrastructure of Ukraine.

Nuclear power station situation:

1. According to the Ukrainian energy holding company DTEK, three steam power plants in Ukraine were damaged.

2. International Atomic Energy Agency: At 5:00 a.m. local time, after the last 750 kv line of Zapolo Thermal Nuclear Power Station was disconnected, the nuclear power station lost all external power supply. All 20 emergency diesel generators at the site have been started. The basic power of the site is currently provided by 8 of them, and the rest generators are in standby status.

3. The State Energy Corporation of Ukraine (Ukrenergo) announced that the external power supply to the Zapolo thermal nuclear power plant has been restored, and the nuclear power plant is changing from diesel generator power supply to receiving its own power from the Ukrainian power grid.

4. Ukrainian power grid operator: Zapolo thermal nuclear power station is reconnected with the power grid.

5. Russian diplomats: Russia supports the initiative of the International Atomic Energy Agency to establish a safety zone at the Zapolo nuclear power plant.

Energy situation:

1. Ukrainian media: YASNO, the Ukrainian electric power company, released a message saying that “due to the large-scale attack by the Russian military missiles, emergency power cut measures were implemented throughout Ukraine”.

2. Tamara Safonova, the general manager of Russia's “Independent Analysis Agency for Oil and Gas Sector”, said that in February, when the EU fuel sanctions came into force, nearly 80% of Russia's diesel oil was supplied to friendly countries, and another 13% was supplied to some European countries.

3. Market news: Ukraine will participate in the joint purchase of natural gas by EU countries and seek to obtain 2 billion cubic meters of additional natural gas supply.

4. Market news: The US senator proposed a bipartisan bill to ban the import of uranium from Russia.

5. Foreign media: The United States privately urged some of the world's largest commodity traders to get rid of their worries about carrying Russian oil subject to price restrictions, in order to maintain stable supply and regain control of Russia's export monitoring.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

US February CPI data: core monthly rate will rebound

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

[SOCIETE GENERALE looks forward to the RBA's interest rate decision]

On March 6, SOCIETE GENERALE believed that the recent macroeconomic data of Australia showed signs, such as lower inflation, rebound in unemployment rate, relatively tepid wage growth and slower consumption, all supported the Federal Reserve of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. SOCIETE GENERALE also said that although the financial market had a more hawkish expectation of the Federal Reserve's policy, investors also supported the Bank's expectation that the terminal interest rate of the Federal Reserve of Australia would be 3.85%.

03

MUFG

Powell has hawkish tone, but the euro injured.