MHMarkets：The US dollar is accelerating its decline, non-US currencies and precious metals continue to strengthen, and US crude oil is breaking the upper limit!
Zusammenfassung：On Wednesday (August 30), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range during the Asian session, and is currently trading at $1936.12 per ounce. The performance of US job openings data released overnight was weaker than market expectations.
Market Overview
On Wednesday (August 30), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range during the Asian session, and is currently trading at $1936.12 per ounce. The performance of US job openings data released overnight was weaker than market expectations. The market strengthened the Fed in September to maintain the current interest rates unchanged expectations, and reduced the expectations of another interest rate hike within the year, which helped gold prices rose to nearly three-week highs. The bullish signal on the technical side has increased.
More data showing a slowdown in the U.S. job market would be expected to give gold prices a chance to rise further. The market will focus on the US ADP employment data for August, which comes out later in the evening, and the US non-farm payrolls report for August, which comes out on Friday.
The US dollar and US bond yields weakened sharply overnight. Technically, both short-term bearish signals have strengthened, which is expected to provide gold prices with further upward momentum.
In addition, this trading day will also release USD GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q2) and USD PCE Prices 2nd Est (Q2), so investors need to pay attention to.
U. S. crude oil rose slightly, once hit a new high since August 21 to $81.58 per barrel. Therefore, the previous API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by nearly 11.5 million barrels last week, which was much higher than market expectations. In addition, overnight data showed a slowdown in the US job market, with market expectations for a Fed rate hike cooling, increasing the likelihood of a “soft landing” for the US economy. The overnight surge in US stocks also provided confidence for oil bulls. In addition, the Gulf of Mexico hurricane concerns make investors nervous.
A larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories is positive for the oil market as it indicates firm demand, said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd. “Concerns over Hurricane Idalia have triggered fresh buying,” Tazawa said.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the offshore Gulf of Mexico accounts for approximately 15% of U.S. oil production and 5% of U.S. natural gas production.
Investors will also pay attention to the Crude Oil Inventories data series released by the EIA later in the evening. Of course, the US ADP employment data for August also needs to be watched.
MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on August 30, Beijing time.
·Gold XAUUSD· | |
High Probability Scenario | High throw and low suction in the 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 range |
Low Probability Scenario | Chase up and kill down outside the 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 range |
 Intraday Oscillation Range: 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1892-1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100 In the subsequent period of spot gold, 1903-1919-1931-1945-1951-1960-1977 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on August 30. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. | |
·Silver XAGUSD· | |
High Probability Scenario | High throw and low suction in the 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 range |
Low Probability Scenario | Chase up and kill down outside the 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 range |
 Intraday Oscillation Range: 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 Overall Oscillation Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3 In the subsequent period of spot silver, 23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on August 30. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. | |
·Crude Oil USOUSD· | |
High Probability Scenario | High throw and low suction in the 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3 range |
Low Probability Scenario | Chase up and kill down outside the 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3 range |
 Intraday Oscillation Range: 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3 Overall Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1-90.7 In the subsequent period of crude oil, 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on August 30. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. | |
·EURUSD· | |
High Probability Scenario | High throw and low suction in the 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 range |
Low Probability Scenario | Chase up and kill down outside the 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 range |
 Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303-1.13340 In the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on August 30. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. | |
·GBPUSD· | |
High Probability Scenario | High throw and low suction in the 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200 range |
Low Probability Scenario | Chase up and kill down outside the 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200 range |
 Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200 Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600-1.31000-1.31660-132000 In the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range! Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on August 30. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. | |
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