MHMarkets ：September 07, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ 10:00 CNY Balance of Trade (AUG)

☆ 17:00 EUR GDP Growth Rate YoY Final (Q2) & EUR Employment Change QoQ s.a (Q2)

☆ 20:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP/02)

☆ 22:00 USD NY Fed GSCPI (AUG)

☆ 22:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (SEP/01)

☆ 23:00 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (SEP/01) & USD EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves Change (SEP/01)

☆ The next day at 02:10 BoC Gov Macklem Speech

☆ The next day at 03:30 Fed Williams Speech

☆ The next day at 03:45 Fed Bostic Speech

☆ The next day at 04:55 Fed Bowman Speech

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

A series of stronger-than-expected data on Wednesday suggested U.S. consumer demand and the broader economy remain strong, but inflation could remain elevated for a long time and Boston Fed President Christopher Collins said further tightening could be warranted. Once the dollar index rose to 105.3, up 0.11%, at 104.85.

Treasury yields higher collective, two-year Treasury yields briefly rose 7 basis points, on 5% mark, at 5.02%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as much as 4 basis points to close at 4.28%.

Spot gold hit again, recorded five consecutive trading day down, giving up close to 2 weeks, closed down 0.49%, to $1916.49 an ounce; Spot silver continue to diving, nearly lost $23, closed down 1.57%, to $23.17 an ounce.

Crude oil turned higher on the U.S. market, with WTI crude up 0.99% at $87.55 a barrel and Brent crude up 0.61% at $90.4 a barrel.

Three major U.S. stock indexes low open low closed, the dow fell 0.57% and nasdaq fell 1.06%, the s&p 500 index closed down 0.7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.5%. Apple closed down more than 3.5%, its biggest one-day drop in a month, ahead of the release of new iphones next week. Luckin Coffee rose more than 4% in the powder market, with a total market value of $9.6 billion.

European stocks major stock indexes fell broadly, the German dax index closed down 0.19%, the ftse 100 index closed down 0.16%, the euro stoxx 50 index closed down 0.70%.

Market Focus

1. Fed-collins: Probably very close to, or already at, a peak in interest rates, and it would be premature to view recent improvement as evidence that inflation is on a sustained retreat to 2%, Beige Book: Most districts reported modest economic growth, and nearly all expected short-term wage growth to slow. The Senate confirmed Thomas Jefferson as vice chairman of the Fed. Cook will remain on the board, with economist Adriana Kugle filling the final spot on the board pending confirmation.

2. The world gold council: the U.S. economy or slow, gold or good performance.

3. The President of Turkey, recep tayyip erdogan: by tightening monetary policy to reduce inflation.

4. The BOC continues to pause rate hikes, but maintains a hawkish tilt to avoid repeating the mistake.

5. The American secretary of state, arrived in Kiev blinken, and announced that $1 billion for assistance.

6. Saudi Arabia raised the price of October Arab light crude for sale in Asia to $3.60 a barrel over the benchmark.

7. The governor of the BOE Bailey: we are no longer in a clear need to raise interest rates, according to the data to make a decision, policy is restricted.

8. ECB Governing Council Noether: The market may be underestimating the possibility of a September rate hike. 25 basis points is a better choice, canal appoint Mr Visco: interest rates has the desired level.   

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. Ukrainian presidential adviser: At least 16 people have been killed in a Russian attack on the town of Kostynivka in eastern Ukraine.

2. Mayor of Kyiv: Missiles launched by Russia are heading towards Kyiv, Ukraine. Ukrainian military: Ukraine's air defence systems are involved in defending against air strikes against Kyiv.

3. Ukraine shot down eight Russian missiles and 15 drones overnight.

4. Governor of Ukraine's Odessa region: Russian air strikes on the port of Izmel killed one person and damaged port infrastructure.

5. The market news: Russian drone damage near the Danube river port, MEL grain elevator and agricultural companies.

6. Syrskyi, Ukrainian ground forces commander: The situation on the Eastern front is still serious. The main task was to secure the defence and prevent the loss of positions on the Kupiansk and Liman front segments.

7. Romanian President: If the drone debris is confirmed to be Russian, it would represent a serious violation.

8. 6 Russian defense ministry said, in a day in the past, the Russian space forces the use of long-range precision-guided weapons hit Ukraine training base of the armed forces. Repel Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhs, Kupyansk, Kherson and other directions, hitting Ukrainian tanks, armored vehicles, US-made M777 artillery and other Ukrainian equipment. Russian air defense forces shot down 17 Ukrainian drones and intercepted more than a dozen rockets of various types.

9. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said on June 6 that at present, the Ukrainian army has made progress in the direction of Labodino to Novoprokopivka in the Zaporizhzhia region, and continued offensive operations in the south of Bakhmut and in the Melitopol region. Uzbekistan battle report also said that in the past 24 hours, the front area fight dozens of times. Ukraine's air force, rocket launchers and artillery units struck Russian personnel and equipment concentration areas, air defense systems and other targets.

Assistance Situation

1. The American secretary of state, blinken: the United States will exceed $1 billion of new assistance to Ukraine, more than 665 million dollars for military purposes.

2. Pentagon: $175 million worth of additional aid to Ukraine, including depleted uranium bombs. In addition, the aid package includes air defense equipment, artillery and ammunition.

Energy Situation

1. Russian oil data showed crude production held steady in August.

2. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's crown prince agreed to cut oil production to help stabilize the market.

3. Russia's energy ministry is seeking a ban on “grey” fuel exports, according to Interfax. According to the draft law, only have the right to export fuel oil refinery.

4. Moldova, officials said, citing a international audit debt to gazprom gas supply costs $8.6 million, compared with $709 million Russian claims that only a fraction.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【U.S. Stocks Fall，Goldman Sachs：Good news is bad news】

September 7 - US economic data improved again, the recently released ISM services index recorded 54.5 in August, compared with 52.5 expected. But U.S. stock indexes fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 198 points, or 0.57%, the S&P 500 down 0.7% and the Nasdaq down 1.06% overnight. Treasury yields climbed, with the 2-year yield rising 6 basis points above the 5% level. Goldman sachs, points out that Wednesday's price action in accordance with “the good news or bad news”. The move “has been characterised by increased sensitivity to economic data, with equity markets seemingly taking a 'bad news is good news' view, with weak growth numbers triggering rallies and strong numbers triggering sell-offs on fears that too strong a reading would increase the risk of further rate rises.”

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE：Inflation remains high, and the ECB may raise interest rates faster than expected

Sep 1 - The ECB is likely to focus on its price stability mandate at its meeting on Sept. 14, meaning a higher rate hike could be more likely than markets currently expect, Societe Generale rates strategists said in a note. “Given data dependency and uncertainty, it may be difficult for markets to fully anticipate a rate hike,” they said, noting that the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain. “However, the ECB should be pragmatic and focus on its price stability mandate, which remains at risk due to elevated measures of underlying inflation, falling real interest rates and inflation risks skewed to the upside.”

03

MUFG

According to the Nikkei News: MUFJ and MHCB will collaborate on digital currency.