MHMarkets：September 11, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆No important financial data and events today.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Friday, after falling to an intraday low of 104.66 on another sign of strength in the U.S. economy, the dollar index recovered all its losses and turned positive. It ended up 0.01% at 105.05, notching its eighth weekly winning streak in nine years. In addition, the dollar opened the week 90 points lower against the yen on speculation about the BOJ governor.

U.S. Treasury yields fell and then rose, with the two-year yield falling to an intraday low of 4.918% before recovering all its losses and turning higher to close at 4.989% and the 10-year yield at 4.260%.

Spot gold was on a rollercoaster ride, rising to an intraday high of $1,929.25 before giving up all its gains and falling below the $1,920 mark before settling down 0.03% at $1,919.07 an ounce. Spot silver fell for nine straight sessions and ended down 0.19% at $22.91 an ounce.

Oil continued to rally sharply, with WTI crude reaching an intraday high of $87.38, a near nine-month high, before closing up 0.52% at $87.18 a barrel, while Brent crude returned to the $90 mark before closing up 0.75% at $90.39.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.22%, the S&P 500 gained 0.14% and the Nasdaq added 0.09%. Apple edged up 0.35% on more than $10 billion in trading. Faraday Future closed down 3.34% after rising more than 11% earlier in the session.

European stocks closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.22%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.49% and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 0.38%.

Market Focus

1. The Japanese yen jumped almost 90 points at the open as comments by the BOJ governor sparked speculation of an “end to negative interest rates”.

2. The G20 summit concluded in New Delhi, India.

3. U.S. President Joe Biden arrives in Vietnam to meet with Nguyen Phu Trong.

4. Iraq adjusts the price of Basra intermediate crude oil sold to different regions.

5. Russian Energy Minister: Russian LNG exports have increased by several percentage points since the beginning of the year.

6. Iraqi Oil Minister: No agreement has been reached with Turkey on the immediate resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq; Iraq has produced 4.23 million barrels a day so far this month and exported 335-3.4 million barrels a day.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. About ten explosions were heard in Kyiv. Ukrainian official: Several drones moved towards Kyiv and the air defense system was activated.

2. Russian Defense Ministry: shot down eight Ukrainian drones over Crimea and one Ukrainian drone in the Bryansk region. Destroyed three Ukrainian speedboats northeast of Snake Island.

3. Ukrainian Army: Russia fired 32 drones into Ukraine early Sunday, and Ukraine shot down 25 of them.

4. Director of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: The counter-offensive is progressing slower than expected, and the plan is to continue the counter-offensive in the winter.

5. Russia's Defense Ministry said it destroyed two Ukrainan-launched drones in the Belgorod region.

Food Situation

1. Eu official: Russia says nothing about Black Sea Grain deal

2. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Russia, Ukraine and Turkey will continue to talk about a food deal.

3. Turkish President: The UN Secretary General will be asked to send the latest version of the food agreement related to SWIFT and insurance.  

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

According to the Financial Times: Goldman Sachs (GS.N) is planning another round of job cuts as early as October.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE：The 12-month target for MSCI's Asia-Pacific (except Japan) index was cut 2% to 665. Upgraded South Korean stocks to overweight from neutral.

03

MUFG

【MUFG：Gold demand from emerging markets could push prices higher】

September 8 - Gold prices did show signs of stabilizing earlier this week after suffering their biggest drop in more than a month. Russia and Saudi Arabia extended their agreement on production cuts into December, sending oil prices soaring, helping to push Treasury yields higher and in turn the index higher. Looking ahead, in addition to rising recession fears in emerging markets, gold demand from emerging market central banks has continued to show strength this year, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and reserve diversification interests. That suggests gold is poised to move higher, though it could be a slow climb rather than a sustained surge. A recent survey of fund managers suggests they are optimistic about gold prices in 2024.