Weekly News 2023/10/30-2023/11/03

 U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday. The Dow rose 222.24 points, or 0.66%, to 34061.32 points; the Nasdaq rose 184.09 points, or 1.38%, to 13478.28 points; the S&P 500 rose 40.56 points, or 0.94%, to 4358.34 point. As investors' expectations for the Federal Reserve to end raising interest rates have increased, the three major U.S. stock indexes have all recorded gains of more than 5% this week. The Dow rose 5.07% this week, recording its largest weekly gain since October 2022. The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive trading days this week, with a cumulative gain of 5.85% for the week. The Nasdaq rose 6.61% in a week, the largest weekly gain since November 2022. October's non-farm payrolls data strengthened market expectations that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may be over. U.S. bond yields fell sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4.5% at one point. A sharp drop in Treasury yields pushed U.S. stocks higher.

The highlight of Friday is the non-farm payrolls data. The data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October. The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in Friday's closely watched jobs report that nonfarm payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs last month. Nonfarm payroll employment in September was revised down to 297,000 from the last reported 336,000.

Analysts said the report could reinforce financial market expectations that the Fed's current rate hike cycle is complete. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday but left the door open to further increases in borrowing costs to combat the possibility of stubbornly high inflation. The labor market is the main force behind the economy's lasting power, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of about 5% in the third quarter.

 Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters, with revenue in Greater China lower than expected. The company's revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter was US$89.5 billion, down from US$90.146 billion in the same period last year. This was also the fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year sales decline, the longest period since 2001. In addition, Apple's Greater China revenue in the fourth fiscal quarter was US$15.084 billion, lower than analysts' expectations of US$17.01 billion and US$15.47 billion in the same period last year.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Musk said on Friday that his artificial intelligence startup xAI will release its first AI model to selected groups on Saturday. “In some important ways, it's the best (model) that exists,” Musk said on the X social media platform on Friday, without disclosing further details.

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) detailed in a new court filing Thursday that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) used a series of illegal tactics to boost profits at its online retail business, including an algorithm that drove up the prices paid by U.S. households by more than $1 billion.

Travel website Expedias (NASDAQ: EXPE) third-quarter net profit fell 12% to US$425 million, with quarterly diluted earnings per share of US$2.87, adjusted to US$5.41, and market expectations of US$4.93. Quarterly revenue rose 9% year-on-year to US$3.929 billion, higher than market expectations of US$3.86 billion. The company said it has repurchased a total of US$1.8 billion in shares this year, and its board of directors has authorized an additional US$5 billion in share repurchases.

Blocks (NYSE: SQ) third-quarter results exceeded expectations, with gross profit increasing by 21% year-on-year.

Coinbases (NASDAQ: COIN) third fiscal quarter trading revenue fell 12% year-on-year, and trading volume fell for two consecutive quarters.

 Bitcoin (BTC) failed to stay above $35,000 this week, and analyst believes traders may cash in BTC profits and move to altcoins, pushing the price higher. Bitcoin prices have been hovering between $34,000 and $35,000 for much of this week, and every attempt to break out so far even hitting a new yearly high early Thursday, nearly touching $36,000 has failed. It encountered heavy selling pressure, driving down the price.

Bitcoin is changing hands around $34,400, edging up just under 2% for the week, with Ethereum (ETH) also up by a similar amount, following a weak U.S. jobs report.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable as scheduled and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell showed that he seemed to be less hawkish on future interest rate increases. The crypto market was subsequently boosted by the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the decline in U.S. bond yields.

At the time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still left open the possibility of another interest rate hike this year, but he also acknowledged that monetary conditions had tightened significantly in recent months, and the market interpreted this as a sign that the Fed might not raise interest rates further and may start to cut interest rates in mid-2024.

Affected by this, traders moved from the U.S. dollar to risk assets, which in turn benefited cryptocurrencies, pushing Bitcoin to exceed $35,000 for the first time since May 2022, further reversing the downturn of the past year.

The price of Bitcoin has continued to surge in recent weeks, mainly due to speculation that Bitcoin Spot ETF may soon be approved in the US market. Grayscale, Ark Ventures and the famous world's largest asset management company BlackRock have submitted Bitcoin ETF applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

 This week, the non-farm data market seems to have relatively simple fluctuations. In the short-term, the rising market will fall first, and the falling position is the short-term stop loss position. Although the bullish data will make the market will rise quickly but it did not completely stabilize at 2000, and fell again. Then it once again broke near the 1990 mark without falling, and finally closed at around the 1992.

From the overall technical analysis of gold this week, the market this week mainly fluctuates between small areas, and the weekly line finally received a long lower shadow line. Combined with the current macro cycle and the US dollar index, next week the trend will mainly be low and long, but due to the continuous impact of the news of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the early stage, the gold price has risen relatively too much, so there is a technical demand for a pullback, and next week there is a high probability that it will continue to see further breakthroughs in shock.

The strong resistance shown in the current weekly line is temporarily near the 2005-2008 mark, the highest point of the week, while the further resistance above is still near the 2010 mark, the support below is still near this week's low, and the primary support is temporarily below the 1978- Near 1980, then we can still consider long and short short-term trading next week to focus on shock trading. Last week Gold rose from around 1985 to the upper trend line near the 2004 mark and then began to fall. Gold mainly tends to be high, but combined with the current market news situation, it cannot be completely bearish, so the short-term trading on nest week will still be in the high-altitude.

 In the U.S. market on Friday, crude oil prices were trading around $80.8/barrel. After the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, risk appetite returned to financial markets. Oil prices rose by more than $2/barrel, breaking three consecutive days of decline. U.S. policymakers are grappling at a two-day policy meeting this week to determine whether financial conditions are tight enough to rein in inflation, or whether an economy that continues to outperform expectations may require more restraint.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% on Wednesday. Oil investors have been closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, worried that a sharp increase in interest rates could slow the economy and weaken energy demand. Some analysts said that if the Fed calls for a halt, oil prices should be very close to bottoming out.

According to Reuters, the largest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, may reconfirm in the coming days that it will extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day until December. Based on Saudi Arabia's approach in previous months, a decision to maintain production cuts in December made in a statement in early November. So no action is likely to be taken on 2024 before the next OPEC+ meeting in Vienna on November 26. According to reports, growth in Europe and China continues to lag market expectations, and setbacks in demand growth are affecting crude oil prices as investors worry that a sharp contraction in crude oil use has failed to take up production supplies. Although crude oil production rose less than expected, U.S. crude oil reserves are still growing as usage continues to fall due to short of demand.

 The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday, extending earlier losses as traders prepared for the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, but fluctuations in the U.S. dollar were limited ahead of the release of important non-farm payrolls data.

The U.S. dollar index futures, which measures the trend of the U.S. dollar against six trade-weighted major currencies, fell 0.08% to 105.897; the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04% to 106.08. It fell 0.5% this week, marking the third decline of the U.S. dollar in the past 16 weeks. Benchmark U.S.

This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable and sent some dovish signals on whether it will raise interest rates further in the future. Although the Federal Reserve still leaves the door open for interest rate hikes, the dollar still lost a lot of popularity. On the contrary, people are increasingly betting on Note that the Federal Reserve will end raising interest rates this year and will begin cutting interest rates in mid-2024.

Analysts at ING said in a report: “Although the Fed maintains a tightening bias, it seems that investors are more interested in interpreting it as a pause in raising interest rates and trading accordingly. A pause in raising interest rates will lead to Interest rate volatility has declined and rekindled demand for high-yielding foreign exchange through carry trades.”

Analysts expect the U.S. economy to add 180,000 jobs in October, down from 336,000 in September. However, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% in October after rising 0.2% in September.

OnePro Special Analyst

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