MHMarkets：December 22, 2023,--Fundamental Reminder

07:30 JPY Core Inflation Rate YoY (NOV)

21:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (NOV)& USD Personal Spending MoM (NOV)

23:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (DEC) & USD 1 Year Inflation Expectations (DEC) & USD New Home Sales (NOV)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply before the U.S. market, losing the 102 mark and once fell to a new one-week low of 101.73, and finally closed down 0.59% at 101.79. U.S. bond yields fell and then rose, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield once fell to a nearly five-month low of 3.829%, and then recovered, and finally closed at 3.892%; the two-year U.S. bond yields, which are more sensitive to the Fed policy rate, closed at 4.352%. The yield on two-year U.S. bonds, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 4.352%.

Spot gold again recovered $2030 and $2040 mark, and once rose to $2046.04 of the day high, finally closed up 0.73% at $2043.02 per ounce; spot silver closed up 1.06% at $24.4 per ounce.

Due to Angola's announcement of its withdrawal from OPEC, which further triggered concerns that OPEC+'s production cuts could not boost the oil market, international crude oil fell and then rose. WTI crude oil once fell to an intraday low of $72.41, and then recovered, and ultimately closed up 0.22% at $73.90 per barrel; Brent crude oil once fell to an intraday low of $77.79 during the session, and then regained all of the lost ground and turned up, finally closing up 0.3% at $79.35 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow closing up 0.87%, the S&P 500 up 1.03% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.26%. TSLA.O closed up 2.98% and NVDA.O rose 1.8%. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 3.1%, JD.O, BIDU.O rose nearly 6%, and BABA.N rose nearly 4%.

Major European stock indexes were mixed. Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed down 0.2%, Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.27%, Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.27%.

Market Focus

1. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the third quarter of the US was recorded at 4.9%, which was lower than the expected 5.20%. US real personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter recorded a final quarterly rate of 3.1%, which was lower than the expected 3.6%. US third quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate of 2%, which was lower than the expected 2.30%.

2. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week to Dec. 16 came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000.

3. According to Angolan news agency: Angola said it would withdraw from OPEC because of dissatisfaction with the production arrangement.

4. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, more than 20 countries have joined the Red Sea convoy force.

5. According to the media, citing sources, if tensions in the Red Sea do not improve, India may consider an alternative route along Africa for Basmati rice (also known as Indian Fragrant Rice), which could increase prices by about 15% to 20%. It is reported that this route may also affect India's exports of long grain rice to Egypt and Europe. Asian rice prices hit another 15-year high on Wednesday.

6. The Japanese government raised its headline inflation forecast for the next fiscal year to 2.5% from 1.9%; it raised its economic growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.2%.

Institutional Perspective

01

The World Bank

【World Bank: Affected by the Israeli Palestinian conflict, Lebanon's economy will fall back into recession】

The World Bank has said that the Lebanese economy will fall back into recession as the country's tourism industry has been hit by the current round of large-scale Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Prior to October this year, the World Bank projected that the Lebanese economy would see 0.2 percent growth in 2023, the first time since 2018 that the country had seen economic growth. However, the current round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has seen regular exchanges of fire along Lebanon's southern border since it erupted on October 7, has seen more than half of Lebanon's winter tourism orders canceled, following a sharp turnaround in economic growth.

02

Morgan Stanley

【Barclays: Monetary policy shifts towards doves, which has long been a strong bull market signal】

A shift in monetary policy toward doves has long been a strong bullish signal, often paving the way for stock markets to hit new highs, according to Barclays, a leading international investment bank, in a newly released report. According to the aforementioned report, over the past 40 years, the time between the Fed's last interest rate hike and the eventual recession has almost always resulted in the S&P500 Index hitting new all-time highs. So far, the Fed's July rate hike appears to be the “last hike” and this pattern seems to be repeating itself.

03

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC)

【CIBC: Canadian retail sales may have accelerated only temporarily】

Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC, said preliminary evidence suggests that Canadian consumer spending could make a positive contribution to overall GDP in the fourth quarter after spending was virtually unchanged in the second and third quarters, although the pickup in inflation-adjusted spending could be temporary as more households refinance at higher interest rates and the labor market weakness is again limiting spending. The economist noted that after retail sales had risen in October (particularly in terms of retail sales volumes), there were signs that they were little changed in November. In addition, Grantham said there is further evidence that the labor market is weakening, with employment generally weak across sectors.