Today's Market Updates

Reminders

When there are market holidays for major participants, there is thin liquidity to catch the volume of the market, causing major news releases or sudden volume surges to reflect onto the prices more easily. During these times, it is advised to stay cautious of the market.

Market Overview

The week will start slow on Monday as major participants are on holiday. The US market on Memorial Day - the UK on a Bank Holiday. However, there will be a major announcement coming from BoJ's Gov. Ueda, which might cause a huge amount of volume to come into the market. Thin liquidity will allow sudden news volume coming in to be reflected more easily in the market. We also have some news coming in from the Eurozone and Australia on the same day. 

This news coming on Monday may affect the price in some way. 

For the entirety of the week, traders are expected to be on hold as they anticipate the much-awaited core PCE results coming out on Friday. Alongside the CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, the Prelim GDP q/q, unemployment claims, and Pending Home Sales m/m on Thursday. 

A higher-than-expected outcome on the core PCE will result in a more hawkish take into the markets, making it difficult for precious metals and equities, and pushing the yields and the dollar higher. PCE is expected to come out at 0.2%, ten basis points lower than previous. 

There has been a change in consensus for rate cuts coming this year from the 6 expected cuts to a single one coming toward the end of the year. 

We have some major news coming in from Canada, releasing their GDP m/m on Friday.

PMI on the services sector releasing better-than-expected and the rise in treasury notes yield last week pushed the GOLD lower after reaching record highs of more than 3% at market close. FED minutes took a more hawkish outlook after seeing strength in the services sector despite higher inflation. Takes on the GOLD may be stagnant or bearish at the moment in the short-term, but overall sentiment may change depending on core PCE results this Friday.  

U.S. crude rose 1.11% to settle at $77.72 per barrel, while Brent settled at $82.12 per barrel, up 0.93% on the day.

GOLD - The GOLD on the technical side is still looking bullish despite several sentiments going against it. However, the move may be signaling a formation of an M pattern, possibly pushing the price down lower in the near term. Currently, 2332.174 is held price up after the market close, last week. We are waiting for further price movement to tell us what may happen to GOLD. We may also find ourselves consolidating for a while in between 2449.620 and 2261.156.

SILVER -Despite difficulties expressed for the metals market, we can see SILVER still holding onto bullish structures, turning the technical against fundamentals. We can see the price failing to reach 29.900 for a retest of the structure before the market closed last week. Instead, prices recovered and are attempting to return above 30.938. However, it is still early to call for prices to rise continuously from here as market participants try to grasp the dollar's positioning in all this.

DXY - The dollar fell after seeing resistance on 105.071 and will once again test 104.607. We anticipate for the market to consolidate or even fall slightly while traders wait for the upcoming PCE results this Friday.

GBPUSD - The market has climbed and moved within expectations as the GBP moves slowly toward 1.27938. We await for further price movement within the week, expected to happen after Monday's silence.

AUDUSD -The AUD has climbed after falling toward 0.66145, failing to reach 0.65869. The price movement may show a lower timeframe SHS formation, but we should await for further confirmation. However, we can see the market respecting the bullish structures.

NZDUSD -NZD stabilized after the week's end, keeping the price higher than 0.60847 and within the consolidation range of 0.60954 and 0.61408. We are waiting for further price movement to remove the price away from consolidation.

EURUSD - The market has slid to test the trendline, failing to return within it. Instead, the price has reversed to test 1.08543. We wait for further price confirmation before we continue to call any price movement.

USDJPY - The Yen is expected to move after the BoJ statement is made, to assure traders of the currency's direction, going forward. Currently, the price is sitting at 156.884, slightly above 156.516.

USDCHF -The CHF is seen consolidated under 0.915800. We have no calls on this other than a possible rise after the W formation. However, we may see prices suddenly fall depending on fundamental results.

USDCAD - The price has moved within expectations as we see a sudden downturn in the middle of the range. The price has failed to reach 1.37881 and returned to test 1.36563. We wait for further confirmation to happen before calling price anything. However, as things stand, we still call the price bearish. Albeit, the potential formation of an SHS pattern.

COT Reports Analysis

CAD - Weak (5/5)

CHF - Weak (5/5)

GBP - Strong (2/5)

JPY - Weak (5/5)

EUR - Strong (5/5)

AUD - Weak (2/5)

NZD - Weak (1/5)

USD - Strong (2/5)

GOLD - Strong (5/5)

Silver - Strong (5/5)