Today's analysis: Gold Prices Maintain Strength Amid Mixed Economic Signals

Product:XAU/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.7 in April to 48.5 in June, below the expected 49.1. The employment index, part of the PMI survey, also fell from 51.1 in May to 49.3. However, the new orders index increased from 45.4 to 49.3. Despite the lower manufacturing index hurting the dollar initially, it rebounded after a Supreme Court ruling in favour of Trump. Investors are now focusing on U.S. job data coming later this week, which could give hints about a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis:

Even though U.S. bond yields are rising, gold prices are still going up. Gold is strongly supported near $2300 but needs more positive news to keep rising. If gold prices break above the 50-day moving average of $2337, they could reach the next resistance level of $2390-$2400. However, gold is currently facing resistance near the 55-day moving average of $2339.21. If it stays below this level and falls below the 5-day moving average of $2323.29, the short-term bullish signal weakens. Watch for a breakout in the $2291.65-$2368.72 range for the medium-term trend.

Product: EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis: 

The modest advance in the Greenback prompted EUR/USD to give away part of the strong earlier advance to multi-day peaks near 1.0780 as investors continued to digest the results from the French election on June 30. Looking at the broader picture, the macroeconomic situation on both sides of the Atlantic remained stable, with the European Central Bank (ECB) considering further rate cuts beyond the summer amidst market expectations of two more rate cuts later in the year. In contrast, market participants maintained their debate on whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would implement one or two rate cuts this year, despite the Committee predicting just one cut, likely in December, at the June 12 meeting. It's worth noting that the ongoing move higher in the US Dollar is partly in response to hawkish comments from Fed officials, while the widening monetary policy gap between the Fed and other major central banks also contributed to the euro's decline.

Technical Analysis: 

Some days ago the price entered a rising channel, where it at once fell to the support line, breaking $1.0675 level. After this, price in a short time rose to a higher $1.0675 level, breaking it again, and continued to grow in channel. Later EUR reached $1.0865 level, which coincided with the resistance area, and some time traded between this level. Then the price made a fake breakout of $1.0865 level and made a downward impulse to $1.0675 level, exiting from the channel. So, I think that Euro can fall to support area and then bounce up to $1.0800, exiting from triangle.

Product: USD/JPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

The USD/JPY has broken the 161.00 barrier as US Treasury bond yields climbed sharply on Monday after US economic data showed that manufacturing activity, as measured by the ISM PMI, contracted for the third straight month in June. The pair trades at 161.49, gaining 0.38%. The major is upward biassed, and Japanese authorities and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lack of action could propel the USD/JPY higher. Despite that, the next key resistance level would be the November 1986 monthly high of 164.87, but traders must reclaim key resistance levels on their way north.

Technical Analysis: 

With that said, the USD/JPY first resistance would be 162.00, followed by the 163.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose 164.00 and Novembers 1986 high. Conversely, if sellers drag the exchange rates below 161.00, the first support would be the April 29 high at 160.22. Once hurdle, the next line of defence for bulls would be the Tenkan Sen at 155.66, followed by the Senkou Span A at 158.90.

Product: BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

In a move indicative of growing corporate confidence in Bitcoin, Tokyo-listed Meta Planet has once again increased its BTC reserves, with a recent acquisition pushing its total holdings past the $10 million mark. This purchase coincides with Bitcoins positive start in July, as the cryptocurrency begins to recover recently lost gains. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $63,000, marking an increase of nearly 3% in the past day.

Technical Analysis:

Looking at price actions through fibonacci extensions, we can look for entry prices that cross these levels. If the price goes above 1 ($64,414). We can look for the bitcoin price to reach all the high at $72,896. If the price goes below 0.786 ($61,476) we can look for the profit taking level at $59,170.

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