Insights into Today's Markets

GOLD -GOLD rose to high levels after the news release earlier this morning, as the Asian session reacted to the data. After the data showed that the FOMC maintained rates, the markets expect a rate cut this September with a hundred percent chance. Analysts are also considering the possibility of more than one rate cut this year and a couple more in the coming months of 2025. August opening is a good start for the metals as new highs may be reached this month as we approach September.

SILVER - SILVER, similar to GOLD, is experiencing a wave of buyers entering the market as we expected. However, while it is not as strongly affected as GOLD, it presents a better price level at the moment. I cannot say that the risk is less in this market than with GOLD, but our expectations for SILVER remain bullish.

DXY -The dollar lost heavily after the FED chair hinted at a rate cut. “If we were to see inflation moving down ... more or less in line with expectations, growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with current conditions, then I think a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. Analysts now react to the statement and continue to sell the dollar in the likely anticipation of the rate cut this coming September. Goldman Sachs strategists said Powell‘s comments suggest the bar is not very high for a rate cut in September. “We continue to expect that the July inflation data will be favorable and think that even acceptable news would likely clinch a September cut,” they said in a note. The July inflation report is due to be released on Aug. 14. But before that, the focus will be on Friday’s government jobs report for July. It is expected to show that employers added 175,000 jobs during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters. Currently, the market is priced under 104.084, and we expect it to go under the previous low.

GBPUSD - The Pound held still despite the dollar data release going as expected due to its own rate cut expectations. Traders see a 50/50 chance for a rate cut to come into the market this month, and we may see it later this Thursday. The price in this market is trading stably at 1.28508.

AUDUSD - The Aussie dollar is currently trading low, showing market conditions to reach 0.65250, and is not reacting too much to dollar weakness due to the AUDs own weakness. We continue to anticipate Aussie weakness this week and in the coming months as traders continue to see a slowdown in its own economy and a discounted chance of a rate hike in the coming months.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi is found recovering into the 0.59400 and possibly reaching 0.59796. While Kiwi's weakness can also be seen from previous trades, its own strength came from the spurred demand due to the Aussie dollars weakness and the removal of a chance for a rate hike. Although the Kiwi is seen to lack in its own economy and may find itself with monetary easing soon, there is still talk of a possibility that the RBNZ may cut rates earlier than expected. Thus, the market is reacting better to weaker dollar conditions.

EURUSD -The Euro is still under 1.08543, but we expect further growth to come into the market as CPI came out better than expected with CPI Flash estimate y/y priced in at 2.6% and the core at 2.9%. A rate hike is now a possibility for the ECB. While the news may accommodate a bullish sentiment for the price, we continue to use our personal systems to follow rules and enter at a better price sentiment for the buys.

USDJPY - The dollar lost heavily against the Yen as their hawkish stance on monetary policy causes analysts and traders to look at the Yen in a different light. Currently, they talk about how the economy of Japan will change with the hawkish view of its economy. The Yen has completely broken out of the structures previously built for support and is currently running lower toward new structures to find its next target. We continue to view a stronger Yen in the markets, and we may continue to see this trend in the coming years—depending on how well its economy and businesses handle the rapid pace of change.

USDCHF - The CHF has now broken below the previous low, and we expect the market to reach 0.87041. There is not much to be said in this market but a straightforward assurance that the market technically and fundamentally follows through with this bias.

USDCAD - The CAD has gained and recovered a bit after the data came in as markets expected, returning to price trading under 1.38402. While the price bounced off 1.37881, we remain unsure of market interactions with the current price as we continue to see CAD weakness. With that said, we anticipate a higher probability of a consolidated price run or a swing within the range under 1.36402. Unless the price breaks above the previous consolidation area above said level, we maintain this call.