Yesterday, as the Fed approached its last policy meeting of the year, the dollar index remained high and volatile, finally closing at 106.95, up 0.09%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed after touching a one-month high earlier in the session, with the two-year yield at 4.266% and the 10-year yield at 4.403%.
For now, retail sales rose more than expected in November, a sign consumers remain resilient. In addition, the probability of no rate cut in January has reached more than 80%, and only two rate cuts will be made next year. In this context, the dollar has remained strong, but has not broken further. What we need to watch out for now is whether the Fed will exceed market expectations. In my view, the Fed should signal a cautious stance and probably not be more aggressive in 2025.
EUR/USD:
1st support: 1.0499 1st resistance: 1.0507
2nd support: 1.0493 2nd resistance: 1.0509
GBP/USD:
1st support: 1.2706 1st resistance: 1.2715
2nd support: 1.2701 2nd resistance: 1.2719
Yesterday, as the Fed approached its last policy meeting of the year, the dollar index remained high and volatile, finally closing at 106.95, up 0.09%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed after touching a one-month high earlier in the session, with the two-year yield at 4.266% and the 10-year yield at 4.403%.
For now, retail sales rose more than expected in November, a sign consumers remain resilient. In addition, the probability of no rate cut in January has reached more than 80%, and only two rate cuts will be made next year. In this context, the dollar has remained strong, but has not broken further. What we need to watch out for now is whether the Fed will exceed market expectations. In my view, the Fed should signal a cautious stance and probably not be more aggressive in 2025.
EUR/USD:
1st support: 1.0499 1st resistance: 1.0507
2nd support: 1.0493 2nd resistance: 1.0509
GBP/USD:
1st support: 1.2706 1st resistance: 1.2715
2nd support: 1.2701 2nd resistance: 1.2719