IndustryMarket analysis on December 18

Yesterday, as the Fed approached its last policy meeting of the year, the dollar index remained high and volatile, finally closing at 106.95, up 0.09%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed after touching a one-month high earlier in the session, with the two-year yield at 4.266% and the 10-year yield at 4.403%. For now, retail sales rose more than expected in November, a sign consumers remain resilient. In addition, the probability of no rate cut in January has reached more than 80%, and only two rate cuts will be made next year. In this context, the dollar has remained strong, but has not broken further. What we need to watch out for now is whether the Fed will exceed market expectations. In my view, the Fed should signal a cautious stance and probably not be more aggressive in 2025. EUR/USD: 1st support: 1.0499 1st resistance: 1.0507 2nd support: 1.0493 2nd resistance: 1.0509 GBP/USD: 1st support: 1.2706 1st resistance: 1.2715 2nd support: 1.2701 2nd resistance: 1.2719

Steven123

2024-12-18 13:33

IndustryDecember 18 Financial Picks

The Fed will release its rate decision and updated dot plot on Wednesday afternoon local time, and is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. RBC forecasts the dot plot will show just two rate cuts next year. The Fed's latest dot plot is expected to imply only two rate cuts in 2025, according to Royal Bank of Canada. The Treasury Department offered 20-year notes at a higher yield than they traded at before the issue. Us November retail sales rose 0.7% mom vs 0.50% expected, revised to 0.5% from 0.40% previously. Traders reduced bets on BOE rate cuts, pricing in a 25% probability of a third rate cut in 2025. Brazil's central bank took extraordinary steps to sell more than $3bn in a single day, halting the real's slide.

Steven123

2024-12-18 09:18

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