EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1213 accelerates further and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0656. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0483.For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1213 accelerates further and intraday bias remains on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0656. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.0483.For now, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

As we near the end of 2024, gold continues to perform strongly, reaching impressive highs in response to a blend of economic and geopolitical factors. Gold has been one of the top-performing assets of the year, benefiting from strong demand from central banks and resilient Asian markets, including high purchasing activity in China and India. A significant factor behind gold’s performance is the high number of record-breaking price points this year, with the metal hitting 39 new all-time highs by the end of October. The price trajectory has also seen gold inching closer to $2,800, driven by central bank support and favorable demand trends. Market sentiment shows that gold’s price rises are being primarily driven by trading in Asian sessions, with volatility peaking during U.S. and European trading hours. Investors should monitor upcoming fiscal policies, inflation data, and potential policy changes, as these factors are likely to influence gold’s market behavior in the months ahead. With its solid rally and continued strong demand, gold remains a favored asset in today’s complex economic landscape.

As we near the end of 2024, gold continues to perform strongly, reaching impressive highs in response to a blend of economic and geopolitical factors. Gold has been one of the top-performing assets of the year, benefiting from strong demand from central banks and resilient Asian markets, including high purchasing activity in China and India. A significant factor behind gold’s performance is the high number of record-breaking price points this year, with the metal hitting 39 new all-time highs by the end of October. The price trajectory has also seen gold inching closer to $2,800, driven by central bank support and favorable demand trends. Market sentiment shows that gold’s price rises are being primarily driven by trading in Asian sessions, with volatility peaking during U.S. and European trading hours. Investors should monitor upcoming fiscal policies, inflation data, and potential policy changes, as these factors are likely to influence gold’s market behavior in the months ahead. With its solid rally and continued strong demand, gold remains a favored asset in today’s complex economic landscape.

U.S. Election’s Role in Currency Fluctuations: The 2024 presidential election is stirring significant volatility in the Forex market. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump proposing distinct economic policies, the outcome could shift the strength of the U.S. dollar. Harris aims for stability in trade and fiscal conservatism, potentially leading to a steady, though possibly weaker, dollar. In contrast, Trump’s preference for aggressive tax cuts and tariffs could strengthen the dollar short-term but also introduce long-term risks, like inflation and higher deficits. China’s Economic Impact: China's steady trade growth despite global pressures is impacting Forex positively, especially for currencies tied to its economy, like the Australian dollar. Even as Trump’s potential win could signal a shift back to higher tariffs, China’s stable trade data has provided some relief to markets worried about global economic strain. Fed Rate Speculations: With the Federal Reserve holding rates high to manage inflation, the U.S. dollar remains strong against many other currencies. However, if inflation cools, the Fed might consider rate cuts, which could lead to a weaker dollar. Forex traders should keep a close eye on how election results might influence Fed policies and the dollar's movement as fiscal policies unfold. As these dynamics unfold, Forex traders are advised to focus on risk management and stay tuned to both economic data and political events for strategic trading. #ForexTrading #ForexMarket #ForexLife #ForexSignals #ForexStrategy

U.S. Election’s Role in Currency Fluctuations: The 2024 presidential election is stirring significant volatility in the Forex market. With Kamala Harris and Donald Trump proposing distinct economic policies, the outcome could shift the strength of the U.S. dollar. Harris aims for stability in trade and fiscal conservatism, potentially leading to a steady, though possibly weaker, dollar. In contrast, Trump’s preference for aggressive tax cuts and tariffs could strengthen the dollar short-term but also introduce long-term risks, like inflation and higher deficits. China’s Economic Impact: China's steady trade growth despite global pressures is impacting Forex positively, especially for currencies tied to its economy, like the Australian dollar. Even as Trump’s potential win could signal a shift back to higher tariffs, China’s stable trade data has provided some relief to markets worried about global economic strain. Fed Rate Speculations: With the Federal Reserve holding rates high to manage inflation, the U.S. dollar remains strong against many other currencies. However, if inflation cools, the Fed might consider rate cuts, which could lead to a weaker dollar. Forex traders should keep a close eye on how election results might influence Fed policies and the dollar's movement as fiscal policies unfold. As these dynamics unfold, Forex traders are advised to focus on risk management and stay tuned to both economic data and political events for strategic trading. #ForexTrading #ForexMarket #ForexLife #ForexSignals #ForexStrategy

AUD/USD failed to sustain below 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348, and recovered after dipping to 0.6511. Intraday bias is turned neutral again first. Further fall is still expected as long as 0.6644 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6526 will pave the way to 0.6348 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6644 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6682). In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

AUD/USD failed to sustain below 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526 will target 0.6348, and recovered after dipping to 0.6511. Intraday bias is turned neutral again first. Further fall is still expected as long as 0.6644 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.6526 will pave the way to 0.6348 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6644 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6682). In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Lately, Gold and Forex markets have captured significant attention from traders, especially with the recent economic data and geopolitical events that have rocked global markets. If you’re into trading, you’ve probably noticed how gold and currency pairs often reflect similar market dynamics. Here’s a look at what they share in common and how recent events have influenced both. Current Trend Insights: Gold has been consolidating after hitting recent highs, with traders anticipating more clear signals from central banks. Forex pairs like EUR/USD have shown volatility with inflation numbers impacting rate expectations, while USD/JPY has been sensitive to U.S. bond yields. Bottom Line: Gold and Forex trading go hand-in-hand as both offer unique ways to capitalize on economic trends, policy changes, and global uncertainty. Whether you’re trading currency pairs or precious metals, understanding the common drivers of these markets can help sharpen your strategy. Happy trading...

Lately, Gold and Forex markets have captured significant attention from traders, especially with the recent economic data and geopolitical events that have rocked global markets. If you’re into trading, you’ve probably noticed how gold and currency pairs often reflect similar market dynamics. Here’s a look at what they share in common and how recent events have influenced both. Current Trend Insights: Gold has been consolidating after hitting recent highs, with traders anticipating more clear signals from central banks. Forex pairs like EUR/USD have shown volatility with inflation numbers impacting rate expectations, while USD/JPY has been sensitive to U.S. bond yields. Bottom Line: Gold and Forex trading go hand-in-hand as both offer unique ways to capitalize on economic trends, policy changes, and global uncertainty. Whether you’re trading currency pairs or precious metals, understanding the common drivers of these markets can help sharpen your strategy. Happy trading...

Here are key aspects of Forex trading: Market Structure 1. Major currency pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, USD/JPY) 2. Minor currency pairs (e.g., EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD) 3. Exotic currency pairs (e.g., USD/MXN, USD/CNY) 4. Liquidity providers (banks, brokers, market makers) Trading Strategies 1. Day trading 2. Swing trading 3. Position trading 4. Scalping 5. Range trading 6. Trend following 7. Breakout trading 8. Carry trade Analysis Techniques 1. Technical analysis (charts, indicators) 2. Fundamental analysis (economic indicators, news) 3. Sentiment analysis (market mood) 4. Quantitative analysis (mathematical models) Risk Management 1. Stop-loss orders 2. Position sizing 3. Risk-reward ratio 4. Leverage management 5. Hedging 6. Diversification Trading Platforms 1. MetaTrader (MT4, MT5) 2. TradingView 3. NinjaTrader 4. cTrader 5. Proprietary platforms (e.g., FXCM, Oanda) Market Participants 1. Retail traders 2. Institutional traders (banks, hedge funds) 3. Market makers 4. Brokers 5. Liquidity providers Economic Factors 1. Interest rates 2. Inflation 3. GDP 4. Employment 5. Trade balances 6. Central bank decisions Psychological Factors 1. Market sentiment 2. Fear and greed 3. Emotional control 4. Discipline 5. Trading mindset Regulations 1. Regulatory bodies (e.g., SEC, FCA) 2. Licensing requirements 3. Compliance 4. Anti-money laundering (AML) 5. Know-your-customer (KYC) Education 1. Online courses 2. Webinars 3. Trading communities 4. Books 5. Mentorship Tools 1. Charting software 2. Indicators 3. Expert advisors (EAs) 4. Trading signals 5. Market news and analysis 🧐.

Here are key aspects of Forex trading: Market Structure 1. Major currency pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, USD/JPY) 2. Minor currency pairs (e.g., EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD) 3. Exotic currency pairs (e.g., USD/MXN, USD/CNY) 4. Liquidity providers (banks, brokers, market makers) Trading Strategies 1. Day trading 2. Swing trading 3. Position trading 4. Scalping 5. Range trading 6. Trend following 7. Breakout trading 8. Carry trade Analysis Techniques 1. Technical analysis (charts, indicators) 2. Fundamental analysis (economic indicators, news) 3. Sentiment analysis (market mood) 4. Quantitative analysis (mathematical models) Risk Management 1. Stop-loss orders 2. Position sizing 3. Risk-reward ratio 4. Leverage management 5. Hedging 6. Diversification Trading Platforms 1. MetaTrader (MT4, MT5) 2. TradingView 3. NinjaTrader 4. cTrader 5. Proprietary platforms (e.g., FXCM, Oanda) Market Participants 1. Retail traders 2. Institutional traders (banks, hedge funds) 3. Market makers 4. Brokers 5. Liquidity providers Economic Factors 1. Interest rates 2. Inflation 3. GDP 4. Employment 5. Trade balances 6. Central bank decisions Psychological Factors 1. Market sentiment 2. Fear and greed 3. Emotional control 4. Discipline 5. Trading mindset Regulations 1. Regulatory bodies (e.g., SEC, FCA) 2. Licensing requirements 3. Compliance 4. Anti-money laundering (AML) 5. Know-your-customer (KYC) Education 1. Online courses 2. Webinars 3. Trading communities 4. Books 5. Mentorship Tools 1. Charting software 2. Indicators 3. Expert advisors (EAs) 4. Trading signals 5. Market news and analysis 🧐.

Today’s Forex session was all about timing and patience. After analyzing market patterns and some key economic indicators, I noticed a strong upward trend forming in EUR/USD. The pair had been consolidating for a while, but early in the London session, bullish signals became clear as it broke through a key resistance level. Outcome: Managed a clean 2.5% gain on the account for the day! 📈 Lessons of the day: Patience in waiting for trend confirmation and disciplined risk management are key. Another reminder that sticking to the plan can yield great rewards in Forex.

Today’s Forex session was all about timing and patience. After analyzing market patterns and some key economic indicators, I noticed a strong upward trend forming in EUR/USD. The pair had been consolidating for a while, but early in the London session, bullish signals became clear as it broke through a key resistance level. Outcome: Managed a clean 2.5% gain on the account for the day! 📈 Lessons of the day: Patience in waiting for trend confirmation and disciplined risk management are key. Another reminder that sticking to the plan can yield great rewards in Forex.

Today in forex trading the GBP was weak and the JPY was strong, creating lots of price movement. Gold also sold off. The AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY dropped but we cannot tell if new downtrends are forming, so scale out lots or exit completely on any sells. Gold also sold off against all currencies today, movements were strong. These live currency and gold trading signals, Telegram alerts, best-in-class forex charting system, and our complete forex trading system are available on the Forexearlywarning website. Just click on the links below to access this top-notch trading system.

Today in forex trading the GBP was weak and the JPY was strong, creating lots of price movement. Gold also sold off. The AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY dropped but we cannot tell if new downtrends are forming, so scale out lots or exit completely on any sells. Gold also sold off against all currencies today, movements were strong. These live currency and gold trading signals, Telegram alerts, best-in-class forex charting system, and our complete forex trading system are available on the Forexearlywarning website. Just click on the links below to access this top-notch trading system.

Today was one of those days where all the analysis, patience, and timing just lined up perfectly. I started my day by identifying a strong trend in the EUR/USD pair. I noticed the pair had been consolidating in a tight range for a few sessions, hinting that a breakout was coming. After analyzing key indicators like RSI, MACD, and some moving averages, everything pointed towards a bullish breakout. I waited for the perfect moment when the price action aligned with my setup and entered my position just as the trend was beginning to pick up momentum. As the trade moved in my favor, I kept a close eye on resistance levels and adjusted my stop-loss to protect profits as the price climbed. Patience paid off, and by the time I closed the trade, I was able to lock in a solid gain! This is the power of combining technical analysis with a disciplined approach. The Forex market can be challenging, but sticking to a solid plan and respecting risk management makes all the difference. On to the next trade! 📈

Today was one of those days where all the analysis, patience, and timing just lined up perfectly. I started my day by identifying a strong trend in the EUR/USD pair. I noticed the pair had been consolidating in a tight range for a few sessions, hinting that a breakout was coming. After analyzing key indicators like RSI, MACD, and some moving averages, everything pointed towards a bullish breakout. I waited for the perfect moment when the price action aligned with my setup and entered my position just as the trend was beginning to pick up momentum. As the trade moved in my favor, I kept a close eye on resistance levels and adjusted my stop-loss to protect profits as the price climbed. Patience paid off, and by the time I closed the trade, I was able to lock in a solid gain! This is the power of combining technical analysis with a disciplined approach. The Forex market can be challenging, but sticking to a solid plan and respecting risk management makes all the difference. On to the next trade! 📈

Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Nakagawa spoke during the session here today (coinciding with the Harris-Trump debate … more on that, briefly, to come). Nakagawa repeated what we have heard from Governor Ueda and other Bank officials that the degree of monetary accommodation will be adjusted, depending on price, economic and financial conditions: real interest rates remain deeply negative, accommodative monetary conditions maintained BOJ likely to adjust degree of monetary easing if economy, prices move in line with its projection Following her comments, USD/JPY briefly dropped to around 141.50 and an eight month high for JPY. After a rebound towards 142.00 USD/JPY has slid again, and as I post its testing to new lows under 141.50.

Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Nakagawa spoke during the session here today (coinciding with the Harris-Trump debate … more on that, briefly, to come). Nakagawa repeated what we have heard from Governor Ueda and other Bank officials that the degree of monetary accommodation will be adjusted, depending on price, economic and financial conditions: real interest rates remain deeply negative, accommodative monetary conditions maintained BOJ likely to adjust degree of monetary easing if economy, prices move in line with its projection Following her comments, USD/JPY briefly dropped to around 141.50 and an eight month high for JPY. After a rebound towards 142.00 USD/JPY has slid again, and as I post its testing to new lows under 141.50.

Chinese officials continue to make moves that highlight an eagerness to boost equity markets. The latest is from the Chinese Commerce Ministry: Adjusts lookup period for foreign investors to 12 months from 3 years Will allow foreign investors to carry out strategic investment in the form of tender offers Lowest asset requirements for foreign investors who are not controlling shareholders To allow foreign investors to carry out strategic investments in listed companies I don't think these move the needle on stocks but they're part of a bigger package that points to Beijing's determination to boost stock markets.

Chinese officials continue to make moves that highlight an eagerness to boost equity markets. The latest is from the Chinese Commerce Ministry: Adjusts lookup period for foreign investors to 12 months from 3 years Will allow foreign investors to carry out strategic investment in the form of tender offers Lowest asset requirements for foreign investors who are not controlling shareholders To allow foreign investors to carry out strategic investments in listed companies I don't think these move the needle on stocks but they're part of a bigger package that points to Beijing's determination to boost stock markets.

Gold falls -$38 or -1.37% at $2748.99 Crude oil is trading up close to $2.00 after reports that Iran is preparing for a major retaliatory strike Bitcoin is down close to -$2000 at $70,372. The price peaked at $73600 on Tuesday just short of the all time high at $73794 area. The buyers turned to sellers today on the failure to push to new highs. IN the US debt market, yields are higher but off highs for the day: US 2-year yields 4.162%, up 0.8 bps US 10 year yield 4.270%, +0.6 bps 30 year yield 4.461%, down -1.7 bps The major stock indices fell sharply led by the Nasdaq as the market reacted to Microsoft and Meta earnings (the weren't that bad but the market was not hearing it) and are getting scared ahead of the elections next week. The US jobs report will also be released tomorrow and has traders anxious.. S&P 500 down -1.56% Nasdaq -2.46% Dow -0.64% In the forex market, the USD was mixed: Japanese Yen: -0.93% Swiss Franc: -0.33% Australian Dollar: -0.03% New Zealand Dollar:+0.03% Canadian Dollar: +0.08% Euro: -0.16% British Pound: +0.61% The core PCE data today came in as expected month on month but due to revision, the year on year was 0.1% higher at 2.7% That was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE data was lower than last month at 2.1% versus a revised 2.3% (was 2.2%). Always good on inflation is the employment cost data for the third quarter which came in at 0.8% for the month and 3.9% for 12 months. That's down from 4.3% in September 2023. Wages and salary also came in at 3.9% compared to 4.6% a year ago. Initial jobless claims today was stronger at 216K versus 230K estimate. Continuing claims did fall as well to 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M. The employment statistics still seem to be strong. Tomorrow the US jobs report. Below are the expectations: Consensus estimate +113K Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank) September was +254K Private consensus +90K versus +223K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510% Prior participation rate 62.7% Prior underemployment U6 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior Numbers released so far this month: ADP report +233K versus +159K prior -- best in a year ISM services employment not yet released ISM manufacturing employment not yet released Challenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 prior Philly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 prior Empire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior

Gold falls -$38 or -1.37% at $2748.99 Crude oil is trading up close to $2.00 after reports that Iran is preparing for a major retaliatory strike Bitcoin is down close to -$2000 at $70,372. The price peaked at $73600 on Tuesday just short of the all time high at $73794 area. The buyers turned to sellers today on the failure to push to new highs. IN the US debt market, yields are higher but off highs for the day: US 2-year yields 4.162%, up 0.8 bps US 10 year yield 4.270%, +0.6 bps 30 year yield 4.461%, down -1.7 bps The major stock indices fell sharply led by the Nasdaq as the market reacted to Microsoft and Meta earnings (the weren't that bad but the market was not hearing it) and are getting scared ahead of the elections next week. The US jobs report will also be released tomorrow and has traders anxious.. S&P 500 down -1.56% Nasdaq -2.46% Dow -0.64% In the forex market, the USD was mixed: Japanese Yen: -0.93% Swiss Franc: -0.33% Australian Dollar: -0.03% New Zealand Dollar:+0.03% Canadian Dollar: +0.08% Euro: -0.16% British Pound: +0.61% The core PCE data today came in as expected month on month but due to revision, the year on year was 0.1% higher at 2.7% That was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE data was lower than last month at 2.1% versus a revised 2.3% (was 2.2%). Always good on inflation is the employment cost data for the third quarter which came in at 0.8% for the month and 3.9% for 12 months. That's down from 4.3% in September 2023. Wages and salary also came in at 3.9% compared to 4.6% a year ago. Initial jobless claims today was stronger at 216K versus 230K estimate. Continuing claims did fall as well to 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M. The employment statistics still seem to be strong. Tomorrow the US jobs report. Below are the expectations: Consensus estimate +113K Estimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank) September was +254K Private consensus +90K versus +223K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510% Prior participation rate 62.7% Prior underemployment U6 7.7% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% prior Avg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior Numbers released so far this month: ADP report +233K versus +159K prior -- best in a year ISM services employment not yet released ISM manufacturing employment not yet released Challenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 prior Philly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 prior Empire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 prior Initial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior

The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws. In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as the president and premier, and oversees the activities of other branches of government, though its actions are largely guided by the Communist Party of China. It’s the largest parliamentary body in the world, with nearly 3,000 delegates representing various regions and sectors across China. The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8. Stimulus measures are expected to announced at its conclusion.

The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws. In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as the president and premier, and oversees the activities of other branches of government, though its actions are largely guided by the Communist Party of China. It’s the largest parliamentary body in the world, with nearly 3,000 delegates representing various regions and sectors across China. The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8. Stimulus measures are expected to announced at its conclusion.

GBP leads, CHF lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.39% US 10-year yields flat at 4.289% Gold up 0.30% to $2,752 WTI crude up 2.12% to $70.73 Bitcoin down 0.19% to $70,088 It's been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December. forexlive.com Sign in News Session wrap Forexlive European FX news wrap: Switzerland CPI falls more than expected Forex news from the European morning session on Nov 1, 2024 Giuseppe Dellamotta Giuseppe Dellamotta 01/11/2024 | 12:33 GMT+1 0 Markets trade cautiously into the US NFP report UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 prelim Japan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year Switzerland October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.8 expected Israel at 'high level of readiness' for Iranian attack - report Swiss October retail sales 2.2% vs. 2.5% y/y expected Switzerland October CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected UK October Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report: Rise in minimum wage could push up services prices What are the main events for today? Markets: GBP leads, CHF lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.39% US 10-year yields flat at 4.289% Gold up 0.30% to $2,752 WTI crude up 2.12% to $70.73 Bitcoin down 0.19% to $70,088 It's been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December. In FX, we had some mixed moves. The US Dollar is up a bit against the commodity currencies but down against the GBP. In fact, the GBP has been recovering some ground from yesterday's selloff, although we haven't got any catalyst for today's bounce. In the equities space, the risk sentiment is tentatively positive with US and European markets up on the day. Overall, there's been a rangebound price action in the last couple of weeks as we await the US election on Tuesday. The bond markets are basically flat on the day. The biggest movers have been the UK's bonds after the budget announcement but it looks like they stabilised. The focus will now switch to the US data in the American session as we get the NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As a reminder, this is going to be a tricky report given the distortions from hurricanes and strikes in October. Thankfully, the market and the Fed are unlikely to care that much given the distortions and the focus on the US election on Tuesday. Therefore, I expect a weak report to be "forgiven", while a strong one would just confirm that the labour market is still doing good and add to the expectations that the Fed might be forced to pause its easing cycle earlier than expected in 2025

GBP leads, CHF lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.39% US 10-year yields flat at 4.289% Gold up 0.30% to $2,752 WTI crude up 2.12% to $70.73 Bitcoin down 0.19% to $70,088 It's been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December. forexlive.com Sign in News Session wrap Forexlive European FX news wrap: Switzerland CPI falls more than expected Forex news from the European morning session on Nov 1, 2024 Giuseppe Dellamotta Giuseppe Dellamotta 01/11/2024 | 12:33 GMT+1 0 Markets trade cautiously into the US NFP report UK October final manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 prelim Japan opposition party chief: BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year Switzerland October manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs 49.8 expected Israel at 'high level of readiness' for Iranian attack - report Swiss October retail sales 2.2% vs. 2.5% y/y expected Switzerland October CPI +0.6% vs +0.8% y/y expected UK October Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report: Rise in minimum wage could push up services prices What are the main events for today? Markets: GBP leads, CHF lags on the day European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.39% US 10-year yields flat at 4.289% Gold up 0.30% to $2,752 WTI crude up 2.12% to $70.73 Bitcoin down 0.19% to $70,088 It's been a rather slow session in terms of data releases. The main highlight was the Switzerland CPI report which missed expectations by a big margin and will likely lead the SNB to cut by 50 bps in December. In FX, we had some mixed moves. The US Dollar is up a bit against the commodity currencies but down against the GBP. In fact, the GBP has been recovering some ground from yesterday's selloff, although we haven't got any catalyst for today's bounce. In the equities space, the risk sentiment is tentatively positive with US and European markets up on the day. Overall, there's been a rangebound price action in the last couple of weeks as we await the US election on Tuesday. The bond markets are basically flat on the day. The biggest movers have been the UK's bonds after the budget announcement but it looks like they stabilised. The focus will now switch to the US data in the American session as we get the NFP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. As a reminder, this is going to be a tricky report given the distortions from hurricanes and strikes in October. Thankfully, the market and the Fed are unlikely to care that much given the distortions and the focus on the US election on Tuesday. Therefore, I expect a weak report to be "forgiven", while a strong one would just confirm that the labour market is still doing good and add to the expectations that the Fed might be forced to pause its easing cycle earlier than expected in 2025

There are only three certainties in life: death taxes someone, somewhere, will have a neat and simple narrative to explain all movements in financial markets Here is my contribution to #3 today - the USD is weaker to kick off the new week due to the election news hitting the headlines this weekend. Jokes aside, seems reasonable. Anyway, markets at this time of week are super-thinly traded. I say this every week but its always gratifying when we get a big move : Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 04 November 2024

There are only three certainties in life: death taxes someone, somewhere, will have a neat and simple narrative to explain all movements in financial markets Here is my contribution to #3 today - the USD is weaker to kick off the new week due to the election news hitting the headlines this weekend. Jokes aside, seems reasonable. Anyway, markets at this time of week are super-thinly traded. I say this every week but its always gratifying when we get a big move : Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 04 November 2024

The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will be set will likely last for months anyway. On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action of the last few days as the market awaits the US election result. There’s not much else we can add here as the election noise will likely lead to a choppy price action until we get the results. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming Catalysts Today is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian Labour Market report and the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

The US Dollar started the week on the backfoot as the odds of a Harris victory jumped higher leading to a pullback in the Trump’s trades. Everything hinges on the US election now with a red sweep seen as the most bullish scenario for the greenback, while a blue sweep as the most bearish. The price action will likely be choppy until we start to get a better sense of who’s going to win, so the best strategy would be to wait for the results, because the trend that will be set will likely last for months anyway. On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action of the last few days as the market awaits the US election result. There’s not much else we can add here as the election noise will likely lead to a choppy price action until we get the results. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming Catalysts Today is the US Presidential Election Day but we will also get the US ISM Services PMI report. On Thursday, we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Canadian Labour Market report and the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump's victory sent the dollar index to a four-month high, ending up 1.686% at 105.16, its biggest one-day gain since March 2020. Treasury yields, on the other hand, rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.435%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.266%. If Trump wins the presidential election, the Republican Party is likely to control both the House and Senate, and the policies he advocates are likely to be implemented. But I think the Fed may not change some of its recent interest rate decisions because of a Trump victory, and the specific details will have to wait for some of the policies mentioned earlier to be implemented. Today's BOE rate decision The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 7:2 in favour of a quarter-point cut and keep its guidance rate relatively unchanged. Eur/USD: 1st support: 1.0601 1st resistance: 1.0856 2nd Support: 1.0514 2nd resistance: 1.1024 GBP/USD: 1st support: 1.2763 1st resistance: 1.2977 2nd support: 1.2692 2nd resistance: 1.3119

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump's victory sent the dollar index to a four-month high, ending up 1.686% at 105.16, its biggest one-day gain since March 2020. Treasury yields, on the other hand, rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.435%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.266%. If Trump wins the presidential election, the Republican Party is likely to control both the House and Senate, and the policies he advocates are likely to be implemented. But I think the Fed may not change some of its recent interest rate decisions because of a Trump victory, and the specific details will have to wait for some of the policies mentioned earlier to be implemented. Today's BOE rate decision The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 7:2 in favour of a quarter-point cut and keep its guidance rate relatively unchanged. Eur/USD: 1st support: 1.0601 1st resistance: 1.0856 2nd Support: 1.0514 2nd resistance: 1.1024 GBP/USD: 1st support: 1.2763 1st resistance: 1.2977 2nd support: 1.2692 2nd resistance: 1.3119

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% in an as expected decision today. The Bank pointed to: Underlying inflation remains too high Inflation is not expected to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 The labour market remains tight, and demand for labour is strong. The Bank did lower its forecasts for growth and underlying inflation a touch, though not enough to signal any imminent rate cuts. As I said in the posts on the decision: Analysts were looking for a February rate cut going into this meeting while market pricing was around May. I don't think those expectations will hold in the face of today's policy statement from the Bank. Higher for longer. AUD/USD barely moved on the RBA news. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia was the other focus for the session, China second services PMI for October. The private-sector services PMI notched up 22 consecutive months in expansion, accelerating to a three months high in October. There were some indications that Beijing's stimulus efforts were boosting business conditions. Major FX traded in limited ranges awaiting the week’s big event (no, not the Melbourne Cup horse race). Getting non-partisan views on the US election is a difficult task but, FWIW, pundits indicated a slowing momentum for Trump and an improving one for Harris. Most polls remain line ball. Yen weakened a little:

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% in an as expected decision today. The Bank pointed to: Underlying inflation remains too high Inflation is not expected to return sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 The labour market remains tight, and demand for labour is strong. The Bank did lower its forecasts for growth and underlying inflation a touch, though not enough to signal any imminent rate cuts. As I said in the posts on the decision: Analysts were looking for a February rate cut going into this meeting while market pricing was around May. I don't think those expectations will hold in the face of today's policy statement from the Bank. Higher for longer. AUD/USD barely moved on the RBA news. Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia was the other focus for the session, China second services PMI for October. The private-sector services PMI notched up 22 consecutive months in expansion, accelerating to a three months high in October. There were some indications that Beijing's stimulus efforts were boosting business conditions. Major FX traded in limited ranges awaiting the week’s big event (no, not the Melbourne Cup horse race). Getting non-partisan views on the US election is a difficult task but, FWIW, pundits indicated a slowing momentum for Trump and an improving one for Harris. Most polls remain line ball. Yen weakened a little:

JPY leads, USD lags on the day European equities lightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.29% Gold up 0.2% to $2,740.83 WTI crude up 3.0% to $71.57 Bitcoin down 0.5% to $68,855 As we get the new week underway, the focus in markets is all about the US election. And the news since the weekend, at least according to the pollsters, is that Harris has closed the gap to Trump to make it a tight race going into tomorrow. And that weighed on the dollar early at the open today, with the greenback starting the day with a notable gap lower across the board. The drop continued in Asia before settling down for most of European trading. But as we slowly inch closer to US trading, the greenback is starting to feel the pinch again as we await Wall Street to come in. USD/JPY is weighed down to 151.75 now, down 0.8% on the day after having been down around 152.00 for most of European morning trade. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.0900 and USD/CHF also down 0.8% to 0.8630 currently

JPY leads, USD lags on the day European equities lightly higher; S&P 500 futures flat US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.29% Gold up 0.2% to $2,740.83 WTI crude up 3.0% to $71.57 Bitcoin down 0.5% to $68,855 As we get the new week underway, the focus in markets is all about the US election. And the news since the weekend, at least according to the pollsters, is that Harris has closed the gap to Trump to make it a tight race going into tomorrow. And that weighed on the dollar early at the open today, with the greenback starting the day with a notable gap lower across the board. The drop continued in Asia before settling down for most of European trading. But as we slowly inch closer to US trading, the greenback is starting to feel the pinch again as we await Wall Street to come in. USD/JPY is weighed down to 151.75 now, down 0.8% on the day after having been down around 152.00 for most of European morning trade. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is up 0.6% to 1.0900 and USD/CHF also down 0.8% to 0.8630 currently

The USD gapped lower in the early hours of trade here in Asia. Early Monday sees super-thin liquidity as major FX centres open in turn, first New Zealand, followed by Australia, then Japan and Singapore/Hong Kong. This progression was interrupted somewhat today by a Japanese market holiday, which extended thin liquidity trading another hour or so The weakness for the USD saw fingers pointed at a shock poll in US state of Iowa showing Harris ahead. It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. Yen, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, all gained ground, as did China’s yuan. There was a minor retracement, but none of the gaps were filled and, as I post, the USD remains close to its session low. Yen crosses have been a major focus for many months now as cross-currents from the US economy, Japanese economy, Federal Reserve monetary policy, Bank of Japan monetary policy, US elections, and the Japanese election played, and continue to play, out. On Friday USD/JPY hit highs above 153.00 and today during the session a 150 point drop from those highs took the pair back to lows circa 151.60. US equity index futures rose in Sunday evening (US time) trade. Oil prices gained after weekend news that OPEC+ agreed to extend its voluntary output cuts by another month, through until the end of December. The cartel had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels a day to supply from December, but they will now keep supply curtailed until the end of 2024. China's annual parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), began today. It runs through November 8. More fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be announced at its conclusion on Friday.

The USD gapped lower in the early hours of trade here in Asia. Early Monday sees super-thin liquidity as major FX centres open in turn, first New Zealand, followed by Australia, then Japan and Singapore/Hong Kong. This progression was interrupted somewhat today by a Japanese market holiday, which extended thin liquidity trading another hour or so The weakness for the USD saw fingers pointed at a shock poll in US state of Iowa showing Harris ahead. It was once a swing state but Trump won it by a large margin in 2016 and 2020. Yen, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHF, all gained ground, as did China’s yuan. There was a minor retracement, but none of the gaps were filled and, as I post, the USD remains close to its session low. Yen crosses have been a major focus for many months now as cross-currents from the US economy, Japanese economy, Federal Reserve monetary policy, Bank of Japan monetary policy, US elections, and the Japanese election played, and continue to play, out. On Friday USD/JPY hit highs above 153.00 and today during the session a 150 point drop from those highs took the pair back to lows circa 151.60. US equity index futures rose in Sunday evening (US time) trade. Oil prices gained after weekend news that OPEC+ agreed to extend its voluntary output cuts by another month, through until the end of December. The cartel had intended to begin returning 180,000 barrels a day to supply from December, but they will now keep supply curtailed until the end of 2024. China's annual parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), began today. It runs through November 8. More fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be announced at its conclusion on Friday.