Global Financial and Political Developments: A Comprehensive Overview Part 2

8

Donald Trump stated he has not yet finalized his vice-presidential pick but plans to announce it at the upcoming Republican National Convention. He told Fox News' Sean Hannity, “We might even announce it during the convention. I would like to announce it during the convention.” The convention will be held on July 15 in Milwaukee. Trump is using the potential VP pick to attract more support.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased political speculation could affect the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Potential volatility in political stocks.

Companies:General Market Indices

9

Most Asian stocks rose ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and the start of the US earnings season. Indices in Japan, Australia, and South Korea rose, while indices in Hong Kong and mainland China fell. The S&P 500 index rose slightly on Monday, setting its 35th record this year, boosting US futures in Asian trading.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Positive market sentiment could strengthen the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Impact on Shares:

Asian Market:Positive impact on regional stocks.

Companies:Toyota (7203.T), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

10

Boeing reached a late-night agreement with Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. to acquire most of its shares and agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy charges related to the 2018 and 2019 737 Max crashes. This deal includes a deep collaboration and restructuring agreement to resolve the long-standing legal and operational challenges.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Corporate consolidation could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Aerospace Market:Positive impact on Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems stocks.

Companies:Boeing (BA), Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. (SPR)

11

According to a New York Federal Reserve survey, US consumers' short-term inflation expectations decreased for the second consecutive month in June. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3% over the next year, down from 3.2% in May. This change suggests that short-term inflation expectations have returned to the stable levels seen from December last year to April this year, after previously jumping to 3.3%.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Reduced inflation expectations could stabilize the USD.

FX Pair:EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

Impact on Shares:

US Market: Potential stabilization of financial sector stocks.

Companies:JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC)

12

Japanese workers' base wages grew 2.5% year-on-year in May, the fastest pace since 1993. A more stable measure for full-time workers showed a 2.7% increase, setting a record. These data suggest that Japan's wage trends may begin to support consumption, helping the Bank of Japan (BOJ) further normalize monetary policy, including a potential rate hike in the near term.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased wage growth could strengthen the JPY.

FX Pair:USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

Japanese Market:Positive impact on consumer and financial sector stocks.

Companies:Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T), Toyota Motor Corporation (7203.T)

13

UK companies are offering new positions at the fastest rate since October last year, with permanent employee starting salaries rising to an eight-month high in June. Temporary positions have also seen an increase in pay.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Increased wage growth could strengthen the GBP.

FX Pair:GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY

Impact on Shares:

UK Market:Positive impact on employment and consumer sector stocks.

Companies:Barclays (BARC.L), Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L)

14

According to Vietnamese Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyễn Chí Dũng, Vietnam's economic growth is accelerating and could reach or exceed the government's target of 6.5% this year, with the possibility of hitting 7%.

Analysis:

Impact on FX:Accelerated economic growth could strengthen the VND.

FX Pair:USD/VND, EUR/VND, GBP/VND

Impact on Shares:

Vietnamese Market:Positive impact on market sentiment and stocks.

Companies:Vingroup (VIC.HM), Vietnam Dairy Products (VNM.HM)