Fed Rate Cut Locked In? All Eyes on PCE!

PUPRIME | 2024-07-19 11:08

Abstract：The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 has been revised to 51.6, slightly lower than the expectation of 51.7 but up from 51.3 in May. In its most recent decision in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering it from 5% to 4.75% in response to easing inflation indicators. In the first quarter of 2024, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4%, slightly surpassing market expectations of 1.3%. This growth marked a...

The Week Ahead: Week of 22July(GMT+2)

Fed Rate Cut Locked In？ All Eyes on PCE!

Wednesday, 24 July2024, 15:45

US Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for June 2024 has been revised to 51.6, slightly lower than the expectation of 51.7 but up from 51.3 in May. This indicates an improvement in manufacturing business conditions for the second consecutive month, driven by increased new orders and rising output. The data reflects growing domestic demand and a modest rise in export orders. However, the increase in production is accompanied by higher input costs, leading to higher selling prices, which adds to inflationary pressures in the economy. The upcoming data should continue to reflect moderate growth given the current trends in new orders continue to hold steady.

Wednesday, 24 July 2024, 15:45

BoC Interest Rate Decision

In its most recent decision in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points, lowering it from 5% to 4.75% in response to easing inflation indicators. Recent CPI figures reveal that Canada's annual inflation rate dropped from 2.9% in May to 2.7%, indicating that previous rate hikes successfully mitigated inflationary pressures. With inflation easing, there is speculation that the BoC might opt for another rate cut in its next decision.

Thursday, 25 July 2024, 14:30

US GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

In the first quarter of 2024, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4%, slightly surpassing market expectations of 1.3%. This growth marked a notable slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The deceleration was primarily driven by declines in consumer spending, inventory investment, and federal government expenditures. However, there were positive contributions from housing investment, business spending, and state and local government outlays. Imports, which detract from GDP, increased during this period. The upcoming data may potentially show some improvement, however persistent inflationary pressures, elevated interest rates, and potential reductions in government spending could weigh.

Friday, 26 July 2024, 14:30

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun)

The most recent Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May 2024 reported a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, in line with expectations but slightly lower than the previous month's 2.8%. This indicates a gradual easing of inflationary pressures, consistent with broader signs of slowing price growth in the economy. This trend offers some comfort to policymakers and markets where inflation is under control. The upcoming data is anticipated to remain stable unless there are substantial changes in economic conditions

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Fed Rate Cut Calls, Would NFP Tilt The Odds?

The latest data for the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, released on August 1, 2024, shows a decline to 46.8, down from 48.5 in June. This marks the sixth consecutive month of contraction (a reading below 50) and remains well below the historical average of 52.88. On July, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced a 25-basis-point cut in its benchmark interest rate, reducing it to 4.5%. This was the second consecutive rate cut, following a similar move in June. The latest ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for..

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Recession Concerns Ease: Can the U.S. Sustain Its Momentum?

The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 100.3 in July 2024, up from a revised 97.8 in June. For Q2 2024, the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in a preliminary reading, a notable increase from the 1.4% growth in Q1 2024. The Eurozone's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.6% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June. This slight increase was driven mainly by a jump in energy prices, which rose by 1.3% compared to 0.2% in the previous month. The US Core PCE which...

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