Abstract:The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that Fed officials are generally concerned about the upward risks to inflation, suggesting that future rate cuts may slow down.
The US dollar has risen for the second consecutive trading day, with the Dollar Index briefly surpassing the 109 mark, rising 0.4% to 108.99, reflecting the market's attention on the Fed's policy outlook.
Why the Rate Cuts May Slow Down?
Fed officials noted that due to stronger-than-expected economic data, especially the performance of the labor market, and potential policy changes (such as trade and immigration policies), inflationary pressures could persist. These factors led some officials to believe that inflation could prove to be more persistent than previously anticipated, thus making them more cautious about continuing to cut rates. While the Fed still expects to bring inflation down to its 2% target over the next few years, the potential risks to inflation remain difficult to fully mitigate at this point.
Additionally, officials have expressed particular concern over the trade protectionist policies and immigration policies that the Trump administration might implement. These policies, such as tariffs and stricter immigration requirements, could increase labor costs and the prices of goods, complicating efforts to manage inflation.
In conclusion, despite the Fed's rate cuts, officials remain generally concerned that the risks of inflation are not fully eliminated, and therefore, future rate cuts are likely to slow. The market has responded by showing strong demand for the US dollar, which has driven the Dollar Index higher. The Fed's future monetary policy decisions will depend on changes in economic data, especially inflation and employment figures, and investors should closely monitor upcoming economic reports.
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