The US dollar rebounded after short-term oversold, but the overall trend remains bearish
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【Dow Jones】 【Euro】 【Gold】 【Crude Oil】
WCG Markets:2023-12-01
WTI Crude Oil climbs over 1%, trading around $77.65, rebounding from a low of $75.74.
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Let's immediately explore the noteworthy recent market shifts that have generated significant attention. The considerable plunge in US 2-year bond yields has had a profound effect, altering the direction of the US dollar significantly. Nevertheless, it is essential to analyze the fundamental aspects of this phenomenon before proceeding further.
Ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech, investors get a raft of data including the latest US core PCE price index and China manufacturing and services print. Oil could be volatile in the run up to the OPEC+ meeting.
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The European stock markets exhibited a blend of performances on Thursday, benefiting from robust German retail sales. This positive momentum emerged in anticipation of the crucial release of eurozone inflation data for November.
At the end of the Asian market on Thursday (November 30), Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester recently stated that US inflation has cooled, while economic activity and labor markets have slowed down.
On Wednesday, the dollar index recovered from a more than three-month low on another stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the third quarter and repeatedly tested the 103 mark in U.S. trading, but failed to hold above it and ended up 0.10% at 102.84. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below the 4.3% mark to close at 4.259%; The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, retreated to 4.646%.
The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has increased, and gold has reached a nearly seven month high;
【Dow Jones】 【Euro】 【Gold】 【Crude Oil】
WCG Markets:2023-11-30
At the end of the Asian market on Wednesday (November 29), two hawkish Fed officials softened their attitude towards interest rate policy last night, strengthening market expectations that the Fed has completed a rate hike.
The dollar index continued its slide on Tuesday, losing 103 and falling to an intra-day low of 102.61, a three-month low, before ending down 0.44% at 102.73, where it has now closed in negative territory for four consecutive days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note failed to hold above the 4.4% mark, ending at 4.324%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, fell 4.8% to close at 4.742%.
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All indicators point towards a bullish scenario for GBP/USD. The improvement in global risk sentiment is strengthening GBP and weakening USD. Both retail sentiment and seasonality analyses align, recommending a long position for GBP/USD, emphasizing the potential for GBP gains and USD losses.
WCG Markets:2023-11-29