Recently, due to expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed, a contraction in the services sector, and uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield temporarily fell to around 4.3%. Moreover, this Tuesday, a large trading bet worth $60 million was placed on the yield falling below 4.15%. While I find this an intriguing bet, I believe it reflects only short-term market expectations and overlooks the medium- to long-term impact of Trump’s policies.Trump will soon announce a 25% tariff on EU products, which I believe is likely to fuel inflation. Additionally, about 40% of U.S. fiscal spending goes toward pensions and welfare budgets, and I am skeptical that Doge Musk’s pledge to cut $1 trillion in fiscal spending can be achieved. Therefore, I think the pressures from fiscal spending and inflation will still persist.I also agree with Warren Buffett’s view that buying long-term U.S. Treasuries as an inflation hedge is not a good idea. Ultimately, I believe the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will rebound, and my initial forecast of it rising to around 4.9%~5.2% remains unchanged.