CPI Cools Fed Expectations, Gold Retreats from $4,450, Oil Holds Near $81, ASX Extends DeclineExecutive SummaryUS inflation data met expectations, cooling Fed rate hike expectations and sending the September probability down to ~40%. Gold pulled back from a two-month high of $4,450, while the dollar remained steady near 100. Oil held near $81 as geopolitical risks and demand concerns kept prices in a tight range. Asian equities were mixed, with the ASX200 extending losses as RBA officials reaffirmed the need to maintain tight monetary policy.US Dollar – Steady Near 100, Hovering Below Key MAsDXY trades near 99.80-100.05. July CPI rose 3.4% (down from 3.5%), while core CPI rose 2.5% (down from 2.6%). September Fed hike odds dropped from 55% to 40%. The dollar has lost both the 20-day (100.45) and 50-day (100.51) moving averages, now holding only above the 100-day MA at 99.75. RSI at 43.23 suggests further downside room remains.Key levels: Support 99.75–99.17; Resistance 100.45–100.51.Outlook: Bearish short-term. PPI data tonight will set direction.USD/JPY – Hovering Near 159.40, Intervention Risk LoomsUSD/JPY trades near 159.40, with US-Japan intervention remaining a key risk. The 160.00 psychological level is a critical threshold – a break above could trigger fresh intervention. The 200-day MA at 158.19 serves as key support. Finance Minister Katayama confirmed US-Japan coordinated intervention, with Trump calling it a "signal of friendship."Key levels: Support 159.00–158.19; Resistance 160.00–160.70.Outlook: Neutral to bearish. Intervention risk elevated.WTI Crude – Holding Near $81WTI crude trades near $80.30-81.00/bbl. US missile strikes on oil tankers escalated tensions, while Pakistan continues mediation efforts. US ammunition shortages limit the potential for major military escalation. Prices remain caught between geopolitical risks and weak demand fundamentals.Key levels: Support $80.00–$78.66; Resistance $83.98–$85.00.Outlook: Neutral. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.Gold – Pulls Back from $4,450Gold trades near $4,338-4,345/oz, retreating after hitting $4,450. The CPI data was supportive for gold (lower Fed hike odds), but the metal had already priced in much of the move, leading to profit-taking. The $4,500 level – which also coincides with the 200-day MA at $4,503 – remains a strong psychological barrier.Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250–$4,231; Resistance $4,435–$4,500.Outlook: Neutral to bearish short-term. Needs to hold $4,300 to maintain upward momentum.ASX200 – Extends Losses as Hawkish RBA Signals WeighASX200 fell 0.2% to 9,188, its second consecutive decline. RBA Assistant Governor Kent reaffirmed the need to maintain tight monetary policy to curb inflation. China signaled no major stimulus, weighing on materials stocks. Utilities (+2.78%) and tech (+0.85%) outperformed.Key levels: Support 9,150–9,040; Resistance 9,250–9,300.Outlook: Short-term pullback, medium-term trend remains positive.NZX50 – Rebounds 0.6%NZX50 rose 0.6% to 13,825, recovering from a two-day decline. Q3 inflation expectations fell to 2.34%, reducing RBNZ rate hike expectations. Banks and consumer stocks led gains.Key levels: Support 13,737–13,700; Resistance 14,012.Outlook: Technical recovery, medium-term trend remains positive.Key Events Today (August 14) – IMPORTANTTime (AEST)EventNotes19:00UK GDP (Q2)Expected to show slower growth22:30US Producer Price Index (Jul)Wholesale inflation data22:30US Initial Jobless ClaimsWeekly unemployment dataCurrency Pairs – Key LevelsEUR/USD: 1.1516–1.1530 – Hỗ trợ 1.1500–1.1464; Kháng cự 1.1566–1.1620GBP/USD: 1.3485–1.3500 – Hỗ trợ 1.3480–1.3415; Kháng cự 1.3550–1.3560AUD/USD: 0.7046–0.7050 – Hỗ trợ 0.7016–0.7000; Kháng cự 0.7091–0.7100USD/JPY: 159.40–159.60 – Hỗ trợ 159.00–158.19; Kháng cự 160.00–160.70DXY: Bearish short-term below 100.45Gold: Correcting from highs, needs to hold $4,300Oil: Range-bound, geopolitical-drivenUSD/JPY: Intervention risk at 160ASX200: Pullback, medium-term positiveNZX50: Recovering, medium-term positiveTrade with caution. Use BCR's Economic Calendar to stay ahead of key data releases.BCR – Bridge The Difference#thebcr #bcrTrading #bcrGlobal