Mohicans markets：Expectations of Fed Rate Hike Temporarily Slow High Temperature in Europe Stimulates Crude oil Demand

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Wednesday, August 10, spot gold hovered around the pivot point of 1790.45 in the Asian session. If it can stay above this level, it will confirm bullishness. The first upward target is 1797.61. Spot silver fell as it approached the first resistance at 20.49. Watch the resistance at 95.53 near the current price of WTI crude oil. The US dollar index is running above the pivot point, with the first resistance concerned at 105.38. EUR/USD remains under pressure below the pivot point, with the first support at 1.0299. GBP/USD is approaching the first support at 1.2180.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 12, 2022, Beijing time.

Techinical View

ONE · Techinical Level · International Gold

1814-1815 Strong resistance

1799-1800 Important resistance

1794 Short Resistance

1783-1785 Short-term support

1780 (weak support)

1771-1775 Key Support

1765 Strong Support

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, as long-term U.S. bond yields soared, gold prices rose and fell, hindered by yesterday's resistance of 1800. In terms of options distribution, thebulls are active above 1800, while the bears have obvious actions below 1775, and the breakout bet is strong (it still tends to be range-bound before breaking through). Among them, there are many call options leaving the resistance position at 1800, and the short-term bullish kinetic energy has weakened. It can be seen that this is the key resistance of the trend. If it can stand firm at 1800, the first resistance above is at 1815, which is the early long target, and the resistance is strong; but yesterday's call option concentrated Masukura price at 1820-1825, or it may become the next long target. Below the current price, 1790 has certain support, and the put option increases bets above and below 1770 at the same time, so 1770 will be an important support position for the price of gold to fall.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

21-21.1 Bull Target

20.75 is the key resistance in the early stage (there is a certain resistance at 20.55 during the period)

20.4 Key Resistance

20.2-20.25 Key support this week

20 callback to the first target

19.8 support level

Technical Analysis

The silver Asian plate is testing the key level of 20.4-20.5 broken yesterday. From the perspective of options, the bulls above the current price have not shown the willingness to leave the market. Especially at the 21 integer mark, the call options increased by 134 lots, highlighting the bullish target here. However, to get here, we first need to break through the key resistance of 20.75 in the early stage, during which 20.5 is still the key short-term level. If the price is under pressure below 20.5, it may test the 20.25 support first. At the same time, more stock put options are ambushed at the 20 mark, which will be the callback target and an important support for the recent upward trend.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

100-101 Strong positive force 

98 Short resistance 

95-96.5 Midline resistance 

92.3 Support level 

90.7-91 Second support (intra-day long and short demarcation) 

87.5 Key support (during the period 89.5 has some support)

Technical Analysis

Crude oil rose yesterday because EA raised its forecast for oil demand growth this year, but last week's increase in U.S. oil inventories and the resumption ofpipeline shipments to central Europe limited oil price gains. Oil prices in the U.S. session touched the lower edge of the midline resistance range, but failed to stabilize. In the past two days, you can continue to pay attention to the strong pressure above, and choose the operating range based on your own position cycle. From the perspective of options, bullish funds are mainly leaving the market near the current price, and long bets are mainly concentrated on 97, which may indicate that oil prices need to stabilize at 97 before they are expected to gain stronger upward momentum. The first resistance first pay attention to 95, 96.5, and the strong resistance above 97 is100-101. The first support below is at 92.3-93, and the intraday long-short boundary rose from 90.7-91 yesterday, and the key support is still the recent bottom of 87-88.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR · Technical Level · EURUSD

1.0475 bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target 

1.04 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, resistance weakened 

1.03-1.0375 bullish increase, bearish increase greatly, key range 

1.02 call option -1 lot, put option +410 lot, support and short target 

1.01 The call options remain unchanged, the put options are +36 lots and the stock is large, and the breakout may expand the downward momentum

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the U.S. PP data for July further hinted at signs of falling inflation, and the dollar weakened, but then the U.S. Federal Reserve officials made hawkish speeches, and the dollar rebounded to recover some of its lost ground. The recent trend of the euro against the dollar is mainly driven by thedollar. Europe and the United States retested the resistance near 1.0360-1.0370 on Thursday night and then fell back, currently fluctuating around 1.31. From the perspective of options changes, the bearish consensus in the market is relatively strong, and the bulls have a tendency to leave the market. 1.03-1.0375 has intensive short entry, forming a strong bearish pressure, of which 1.0350-1.0375 is expected to constitute a key resistance area. Only by breaking through this range, the bulls are expected to open up new upward space, and the bulls target 1.0475. On the other hand, the support first focuses on 1.03, and the breakdown indicates that the bears have regained the upper hand and may return to the volatile range around 1.02, where a 410 put option has beenadded. Further down is the lower edge of the shock range at 1.01. There is a large stock of put options, and the breakout may expand the downward momentum. The bears continue to bet on the range near parity.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.2350 bullish increase significantly, bearish increase unchanged, long target 

1.23 bullish increase significantly, bearish unchanged, the upper target 

1.2250 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, resistance level 

1.22 bullish unchanged, bearish increase, the first fall target 

1.2150 bullish unchanged, bearish Increase,the first target after breaking the level is 1.2050, the bullish remains unchanged, the bearish increase greatly, the short target

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the rebound of the pound and the United States was generally weaker than that of Europe and the United States, mainly because the dovish stance of the Bank of England's decision last week had a blow to the outlook for the pound. Judging from the changes in options, the overall institutional hedging is obvious, but the positions of the positions are far away. It is estimated that it is prepared in advance for the second-quarter GDP data of the UK today, and the short-term impact on the market may be limited. From the perspective of the day, the 382 retracement level of this round of rebound constitutes the key support for the day, corresponding to 1.2180. Breaking this level may destroy the short-term bullish sentiment. Lets look at 1.2150. If it falls furtherbelow this level, the pound and the United States may return to the shock range, and the bears will focus on 1.21 and 1.2050. The top continues to focus on the 1.2250 resistance, then the former high 1.23 resistance, and then 1.2350. However, the weak economic data may limit the height of the overall rebound in the pound and the United States, and be wary of the sustainability or limited rebound in the day.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.7250-0.7275 Bullish increase, put option unchanged, former high long target 

0.72 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, upper target 

0.7150 Bullish decrease, bearish unchanged, upside energy weakened 

0.71 Bullish slightly reduced but the stock is dominant, bearish increase , the short-term correction target is alsoto support 

0.7050, the bullish is slightly reduced but the stock is dominant, the bearish increase, the support level is 0.70, the bullish decrease but the stock is dominant, the bearish change, the key support

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the Australian dollar was firmer than the US and China due to rising energy prices. This morning, it was mainly affected by the rebound of the US index, and the short-term need to pay attention to the rhythm of commodities and the US dollar at the same time. From the perspective of options, bulls continue to bet on the Australian dollar rising, but the point is slightly far from the current price, mainly concentrated above 0.72. For the day, we can first pay attention to the breakthrough of 0.7150-0.7160, the starting point of the previous heavy volume drop, and we can only hope to see the mid-line target of 0.72-0.7250 after stabilization. On the other hand, while the Australian dollar maintains its upward structure, the bears have no obvious willingness, and mainly focus on the integer mark. The lower support first pays attention to 0.71, then 0.7050 (the boundary between long and short days), and the key support is at 0.70, and it will return to shock if it falls below.

 Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 12. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. Mohicans Markets has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. Mohicans Markets makes no warranties or representations regarding this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, Mohicans Markets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material.The features of Mohicans Markets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the Mohicans Markets website and should be considered before deciding to deal with these products. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. Mohicans Markets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Mai hui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.