Mohicans markets ：Markets Are Still Awaiting Non-farm Payrolls

Key Data

Fundamentals Overview

On Tuesday August 30, spot gold fell below the pivot point at 1731.64 before the European market, and the first support was at 1725.92, which has now rebounded.Spot silver remains bullish, subject to the first resistance at 18.77. WTI crude oil fluctuated in a narrow range, once approaching the primary upward target of 97.75 during the session. The U.S. dollar index fell short-term to near the primary support of 108.54, and if it is confirmed to fall below, then focus on the support at 108.43. EUR/USD is testing the first resistance at 1.0033.The main resistance for GBP/USD is 1.1752. USDJPY focuses on support at 138.33.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on August 30, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1762~1773 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target

1755~1757 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long target and resistance

1745~1750 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, strong resistance level

1738 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, long and short fight for points

1734, the position of the short-term long-short boundary

1725~1728, the first key position below

1720 Bearish target is also trend support

1713-1719 Bullish remains unchanged, bearish increases significantly and the stock is large,

1695-1700 Bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is large, the medium line short target

Technical Analysis

The US dollar index fell from a high level, and gold rose slightly, fluctuating briefly around 1738, and was able to break through successfully at the end, and is now preparing for further testing. The bears are still actively deploying downwards, and there are signs of the bulls entering the market near the current price, but their bets above 1800 have been relaxed. 1738 has certain call options to enter the market, betting on an upward breakthrough, but it is expected that gold will encounter strong resistance at 1748. Despite the new bulls coming in here, the stock of bears still prevails, bulls target at 1758 and 1773. The shorts still have the advantage of stock below the current price, and at the same time, there are intensive entry near 1723. The first short target is 1713-1723. If it breaks down further, it may expand the downward momentum. The short target in the middle line is 1693-1798.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical Level · Spot Silver

19 Bullish increase greatly and the stock is large, bearish increases slightly and the stock is large, long and short target

18.75 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bulls and bears fight for position and resistance

18.5 Bullish unchanged, bearish slightly reduced, support level

18.25 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, midline support

18.0 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase in the same amount but the stock is larger, the short target

Technical Analysis

Spot silver was supported and stabilized near 18.3 yesterday, and the rise was blocked after 18.65. During the day, we need to pay attention to whether it can find support near 18.5 and stabilize upward. 

Judging from the changes in order flow, there is a small decrease in shorts near the current price, and longs are incrementally betting on silver rising. The first resistance is at 18.9, but the stock of longs and shorts is equal, and the trend may fluctuate at this position for a period of time.

At 19.15, the stock of shorts is large, but the newly added bullish bets are considerable, and the bulls are betting that the spot silver price will break through the resistance and rise.

Silver bears, on the other hand, are not making significant incremental bets. There is even a departure phenomenon near the current price, pay attention to the support of 18.65 and 18.40 below, and the short target is at 18.15.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

105 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, medium line bulls target

103 Bullish increase sharply, bearish unchanged, resistance level

100-100.5 Bullish increase, bearish increase and there is stock, the first target of the bulls

99 Bullish increase, bearish increase and larger stock, resistance level

96 Bullish increase, bullish increase, strong support level

95 Bullish increase and large stock, bearish increase, minor support

92-93 Bullish decrease slightly but there is stock, bearish increased greatly , the callback target and strong support

Technical Analysis

Affected by the supply-side news and speculation on Tuesday, oil prices rose above 96, and the overall bets of options bulls showed signs of moving up, suggesting that the market is paying for the supply concerns brought about by the news on a daily basis.

Among them, the bullish position of 96 has increased significantly, becoming the relative key support for the day, and the secondary support below is at 95.

Once it falls below, it is expected to test the 92-93 callback target again. However, the bears of 92-96.5 are relatively cautious, and it is expected to be difficult to descend smoothly.

Above 96, the bulls lighten their positions slightly at 97.5 and 98.5, which has little impact on the overall momentum. Among them, 100-100.5 is the first target of the bulls, and we can expect 103 and 105 to stand firm. Overall, 99-101 long bets are relatively intensive, suggesting that short-term action can still be strong.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.01 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly and the stock is large, long target and resistance

1.0025 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, first resistance

1.00 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply and the stock is large, short power weaken

0.9925-0.995 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply and the stock is large, downside target

0.99 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, significant support

Technical Analysis

The Euro trend followed the dollar on Monday, the Asian opening extended last weeks decline. And then the dollar fell back in the European session, Europe and the United States rebounded. After the U.S. market opened, it maintained oscillation near parity.

Options on the short side of the parity position weakened, but is still the cut-off point for new long and short bets. Among them, long money continues to concentrate on entering above parity. Unlike yesterday, short money also saw a large amount of exits above, with overall money showing signs of betting on a rally above parity.

On the upside, bullish stocks showed a sequential increase. Only 1.0025 shows a small decrease and is expected to be the first resistance; if it rises above, it may look to the long target of 1.01, and it is also the second resistance.

If the parity cannot be held, the downside target of the retreat may be located at 0.9925-0.995, as the short position adds a large number of bets; at the same time, below the parity, i.e., the range 0.98-0.995, only 0.99 shows short money leaving the market, which may be an important support for the retreat.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.18 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, resistance 

1.175 bullish increase, bearish increase, upside target and resistance 

1.17 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, short power weaken 

1.165-1.167 bullish increase, bearish increase and the stock is large, downside target and support

1.16 bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly and the stock is large, short target and support

Technical Analysis 

The GBPUSD trend followed the USD on Monday, after first retreating and then stabilizing and rebounding around yesterdays key support at 1.165. It is currently oscillating around 1.17. The distribution of options shows that within the range 1.16-1.18, both long and short sides are dominated by new bets, with only a significant short exit near 1.17, signaling weakening short-side strength. In the upside direction, both calls and puts around 1.175 have been added, which will be the upside target and resistance; if it broken, it may look to the next resistance at 1.18. Below 1.17, there is still support in the range 1.165-1.167, and will be the downside target for the retreat; and then due to the large amount of bearish money bets at 1.16, and for the first time after 1.17, the exit will be the downside target and support for the retreat. The short side of the target is also supported.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.7 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but the stock is large, strong rebound resistance

0.695 Bullish increase sharply, bearish unchanged, long target and bounce resistance

0.69 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged and the stock is large, resistance

0.685 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged and the stock is large, support

0.658 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase slightly, key support

0.675 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, short target

Technical Analysis

Australia and the U.S. rallied quickly after a false breakout of 0.685 support on Monday, hitting a snag near 0.69. Overall, options bets are little changed, still fluctuating in the 0.685-0.695 range. Intraday, the primary test below 0.685 is the key support at 0.68, which is expected to test the short target of 0.675 after breaking down. If it continues to stabilize 0.685, the Australian dollar will still face a strong resistance range of 0.69-0.7, stabilize 0.69 or will ease the downside risk; and 0.595 call options have seen a lot of increased positions, becoming a short term long target.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on August 30. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.