Mohicans markets：MHM Today’s News

December 13, 2022 - Fundamentals Reminder

☆ To be determined, OPEC will release monthly crude oil market report.

☆ To be determined, the EU Energy Minister will hold a special meeting.

☆ At 15:00, Germany announced the final monthly rate of CPI in November.

☆ At 18:00, the ZEW economic climate index of Germany and the euro area was released in December.

☆ At 21:30, the US announced the quarterly adjusted CPI annual rate in November, the quarterly adjusted CPI monthly rate in November, and the quarterly adjusted core CPI annual rate in November.

☆ At 05:30 the next day, the United States announced the API crude oil inventory for the week ending December 9.

MHMarkets-Market Overview

Review of global market trend

Last Friday (December 9), the US PPI data exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of tightening, and the dollar index rose above the 105 level in the short term. However, after the release of the consumer inflation expectations surveyed by the University of Michigan, the dollar index gave up most of its gains, and ultimately failed to regain the 105 level, rising 0.11% to 104.93.

The US treasury bond yield rose to a new day high in the session, and the 10-year US treasury bond yield climbed to 3.59%, more than 10 basis points higher than the mid September intraday low set last Wednesday; The yield of two-year US bonds topped 4.35%.

Spot gold broke through the 1800 mark in the session, rising to 1806.05 USD/oz at the highest level, but failed to close above the 1800 mark, rising 0.47% to 1797.46 USD/oz; Spot silver rose as high as $23.68 per ounce, closing 1.75% higher at $23.48 per ounce.

International oil prices fell by more than 10% last week, the first time in nearly half a year. The price difference of 1-year WTI crude oil futures shifted to premium for the first time since November 2020.

After the PPI data was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened at a low price. The University of Michigan survey showed that after the unexpected decline of short-term inflation expectations in the United States, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in the session, but the decline widened in the late afternoon, and finally closed down, with the Dow closing 0.9% lower, and the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closing 0.7% lower. The energy and Chinese new energy vehicle sectors fell generally, with the ideal vehicle closing down 12.37% after the performance.

European stocks generally closed higher, with Germany's DAX30 index up 0.73%, Britain's FTSE 100 index up 0.07%, France's CAC40 index up 0.46%, Europe's Stoxx 50 index up 0.51%, Spain's IBEX35 index up 0.77%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index up 0.30%.

Market Focus

1. JP Morgan: U.S. CPI data released on Tuesday could send U.S. stocks up by up to 10%.

2. Goldman Sachs plans to cut hundreds more jobs on top of routine layoffs.

3. Coin denied reports of possible charges by the U.S. Department of Justice.

4. Nick Timiraos: Fed enters second phase of anti-inflation battle, pace of rate hikes expected to slow.

5. Saudi Aramco reportedly to approach investors on $110 billion Saudi gas project.

6. [Data] New York Fed survey shows Americans' inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 5.2% in November from 5.9%, the largest drop on record. U.K. three-month GDP registered a monthly rate of -0.3% in October, the largest decline since March 2021.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Gold's low duration and defensive nature make its portfolio more diversified than bitcoin in an era of tightening financial conditions.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%, a decision that may trigger subconscious buying of the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada is currently oscillating between a 25 bps and 50 bps rate hike, but we suspect that it may choose the latter after GDP growth in the third quarter beat expectations (thanks in part to strong exports).

03

MUFG

US CPI and the FOMC meeting could trigger a short squeeze on the dollar before year-end.

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