MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆At 24:00, the EIA will release a short-term energy outlook report, and investors can pay attention to their short-term views on the oil market.

☆At 1:30 the next day, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsby delivered a speech, and investors can pay attention to their views on NFP and the pace of the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate hikes.

☆At 6 o'clock the next day, the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy. Previously, Huck stated that he would “absolutely not” change the 2% inflation target.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend 

On Monday, as a result, the previous non farm data remained “strong”, stimulating market bets on the Fed's interest rate hike. Spot gold fell below the $2000 mark and briefly fell near the 1980 mark, ultimately closing down 0.83% at $1991.47 per ounce; Spot silver hovered below the 25th level and ultimately closed down 0.41% at $24.87 per ounce.

The US dollar index rose significantly during the day and briefly reached the high of 102.82, but later took back some of its gains and eventually closed up 0.44% at 102.53; The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond was the first to fall and then rise, and stood above 3.4% to close at 3.415%.

In terms of crude oil, or due to concerns that further interest rate hikes may suppress demand, the two oil companies still have some downward trend. WTI crude oil fell significantly after reaching a high of $81.19 at the beginning of the trading session, and briefly fell below the $80 level, ultimately closing down 0.68% at $79.86 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed 0.67% lower at $84.20 per barrel.

The US stock index closed 0.3% higher, the Nasdaq index closed 0.03% lower, and the S&P 500 index closed 0.1% higher. Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with Baidu closing down 4%, JD.com and Bilibili closing down 2%, and Alibaba closing down 1%.

European and Hong Kong stocks are closed for one day due to Easter.     

Market Focus

1. U.S. President Biden signs a bill to end the national emergency over the COVID-19.

2. Israeli military and Palestinian youths erupt in clashes, more than 100 people are injured.

3. British media: British Prime Minister Sunac plans to hold a general election in the fall of 2024 in a bid to gain more advantages.

4. Mexico Stock Exchange suspended trading for a time due to data problems.

5. The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda: it is appropriate to continue the YCC and maintain negative interest rates.

6. Fed Williams: rate hikes are not the cause of stress in the banking sector, have not yet seen clear signs of credit tightening; not worried about the market divergence from the Fed on interest rates.

7. New York Fed survey: inflation expectations for the coming year rose for the first time since last October to 4.7%; the number of people who think it's harder to get credit rose to a 2014 high.

8. U.S. Federal Home Loan Bank System debt issuance in the last week of March was $37 billion, well below the $304 billion two weeks ago, indicating an easing of the banking crisis.

Geopolitical Situation

1. The Ukrainian side says Russian forces conducted 78 attacks on the Kherson region on the 9th, firing 360 artillery shells, 17 of which hit the Koraberny district of Kherson city.

2. The Russian Defense Ministry said Russian forces launched offensives in the direction of Kupyansk, Red Liman, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, destroying a number of Ukrainian armored vehicles, a US-made M777 artillery system and several other U.S. Army equipment and facilities.

3. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled Russian offensives in four directions, including Red Liman and Bakhmut.

4. According to Interfax: the Russian Ministry of Finance opposes calls to resume mandatory sales of foreign currency-denominated revenues of Russian companies.

5. Russia's head of Donetsk region said that 75% of Bakhmut is under Russian control and it is too early to talk about the complete “liberation” of Bakhmut.

6. Russian Defense Ministry: Ukraine released 106 Russian prisoners through prisoner of war exchange.

7. Turkish Foreign Minister: Turkish, Syrian and Russian ministers may meet in early May.

8. Ukraine CPI rose 21.3% year-on-year in March, and the market expected 21.2%.

9. World Bank President: Ukraine is estimated to have an $11 billion shortfall in critical spending in 2023.

10. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister: We are seeking a visit to Ukraine by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior officials.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs fined $15 million for violating swap trading standards】

On April 11, Goldman Sachs on Monday settled charges with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for violating standards related to index swaps. The CFTC said Monday that Goldman Sachs admitted failing to make required disclosures about its customers' “day-ahead” swap transactions in 2015 and 2016. The CFTC found that Goldman Sachs speculatively solicited or agreed to enter into same-day swaps only on days and at times that were financially beneficial to Goldman Sachs and unfavorable to its clients. As a result, Goldman Sachs will pay a civil penalty of $15 million.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%】

On April 10, Societe Generale economists believe the Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% due to falling inflation levels and concerns about economic growth sparked by banking problems in Europe and the United States. Banking problems have sparked concerns among some in Korea about overseas capital flows, though these concerns have eased recently. Some recent activity data suggest that economic conditions are resilient. While the policy statement will likely reaffirm that the Bank of Korea will maintain its tightening stance, leaving the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting would further support our underlying assumption that the rate hike cycle ended in January.

03

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ: Dollar could fall sharply if U.S. jobs data comes in weaker than expected

On April 5, The dollar could fall sharply if Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report supports growing evidence that positive labor market demand is starting to wane, Mitsubishi UFJ said. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said the data collection for the jobs report comes ahead of the banking sector turmoil in March, which could lead to a further tightening of credit conditions and hit real economic activity. The best performing area of the U.S. economy remains the labor market, but we may be on the cusp of change, Halpenny said, adding that the dollar could be most affected against the core G10 currencies, including the Swiss franc, yen, euro and pound, if Treasury yields fall further as the job market cools.