Abstract:On Friday, April 14, in the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated slightly, approaching the overnight high of over a year, as the US dollar continued its overnight decline, reaching a new low of nearly a year to 100.77. Affected by the weak PPI data overnight, the market expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily stop raising interest rates after May, and expectations for a rate cut this year have also increased.
Market Overview
On Friday, April 14, in the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated slightly, approaching the overnight high of over a year, as the US dollar continued its overnight decline, reaching a new low of nearly a year to 100.77. Affected by the weak PPI data overnight, the market expects the Federal Reserve to temporarily stop raising interest rates after May, and expectations for a rate cut this year have also increased.
However, the US dollar index showed some signs of stabilization near its low of 100.80 on February 2nd, causing some gold bulls to be cautious. Moreover, the 2050 level is also an important psychological level, with some gold bulls taking profits and the gold price currently dropping to around $2040.40 per ounce.
US crude oil trading around $82.30 per barrel; Oil prices fell 1% on Thursday as OPEC's report sparked concerns about summer demand and economic recession concerns rebounded.
Investors need to pay attention to the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in March, commonly known as “terrifying data”. Currently, the market expects a 0.4% month on month decrease, which is biased towards bullish gold prices and is expected to limit the pullback space of gold prices, and even provide opportunities for gold prices to break through the 2050 level.
In addition, we also need to pay attention to the performance of the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in March and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in April, and pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Governor Waller on the economic outlook.
During the day, the focus was on the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in March, the IEA monthly crude oil market report, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller's speech on the economic outlook.
The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and is not intended as investment advice. Please carefully read the statement terms at the end of the text. The following strategy update was made on April 14, 2023 at 15:00 Beijing time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066
Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1978-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100
In the subsequent period of spot gold, 2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on April 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6
Overall Oscillation Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3
In the subsequent period of spot silver, 24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on April 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5
Overall Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1
In the subsequent period of spot silver, 77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on April 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157
Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303
In the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on April 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.2550
Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.2550-1.27000
In the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.2550 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on April 14. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's recent comments have highlighted a cautious stance towards adjusting interest rates, marking a significant moment for the financial markets.
In the forex market, stability was the theme for the U.S. dollar index, holding firm at 104.30. Minor fluctuations were observed across major currency pairs: the Euro slightly weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.0827
In the latest market wrap focusing on the foreign exchange sector, the U.S. dollar index showed minimal movement, holding at 104.31.
On Tuesday, due to February's US durable goods orders growth exceeding expectations and an optimistic economic growth outlook for the first quarter in the US, the US dollar index initially fell but then rose, briefly touching below the 104 mark before recovering during the US trading session, closing up 0.07% at 104.29.