MHMarkets ：MHM Today News

☆17:00 Euro zone April industrial and economic climate index, Euro zone April consumer confidence index final value

☆At 20:30  the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from April 22nd in the United States, the initial annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the first quarter of the United States, the initial annualized quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditure in the first quarter of the United States, and the initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States

☆ 22:00 Monthly rate of contract sales index for completed homes in the United States in March

☆ 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory for the week from the United States to April 21

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

The financial report of First Republic Bank of the United States has reignited concerns about the banking crisis in the market. On Wednesday, it was reported that the US government is currently unwilling to intervene in it, leading to market expectations for a further decrease in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in May. Coupled with economic data indicating higher borrowing costs and an uncertain economic outlook, capital investment is being suppressed, and the US dollar index has declined. At one point in the day, it fell 101, closing 0.33% lower at 101.46.

The US bond yield stopped falling and turned higher in the US stock market due to increased risk aversion. The two-year US bond yield briefly fell below 3.87%, then pushed up to the 4% mark. As of the close of the US stock market, trading was around 3.93%; The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 3.41% to 3.45% within the day.

Spot gold was supported by concerns about economic recession and briefly pushed up to the 2010 US dollar during the session. However, it was still constrained by the prospect of interest rate hikes by European and American central banks next week, and subsequently fell nearly $30 to $1983.4 per ounce, closing 0.39% lower at $1989.23 per ounce. Spot silver missed the $25 mark and closed 0.54% lower at $24.88 per ounce.

At one point, crude oil recovered some of its losses due to lower than expected US EIA crude oil inventory data. However, US stocks continued to plummet in late trading due to factors such as banking crisis, economic recession concerns, and potential supply progress in Iraq. WTI crude oil almost fell below the $74/barrel mark, closing 3.61% lower at $74.31/barrel; Brent crude oil continued to decline after falling below the $80 mark, closing 3.55% lower at $77.73 per barrel, and WTI crude oil completely wiped out all the gains since OPEC+unexpectedly announced a production reduction.

The US stock market continued to diverge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing 0.68% lower, the S&P 500 Index closing 0.39% lower, and the Nasdaq closing 0.47% higher. Microsoft's performance rose 7.2% and its stock price approached $300, reaching a new high in nearly a year.

Most European stocks closed lower, with the German DAX30 index ending 0.49% lower; The FTSE 100 Index in the UK closed down 0.47%; The French CAC40 index closed down 0.86%; The European Stoxx 50 index closed 0.72% lower; The IBEX35 index in Spain closed up 0.05%; The Italian FTSE MIB index closed 0.54% lower.

Market Focus

1. First Republic Bank fell 64% in two days, sources said, the U.S. government is currently reluctant to intervene in First Republic Bank.

2. The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Republican-backed debt ceiling bill, but it is not expected to pass in the Senate.

3. Because of the delay of the white knight, First Republic Bank's rating may be downgraded by the FDIC, or its use of the Federal Reserve's emergency lending tools may be limited.

4. Russian media: Russian State Statistics Service stopped publishing oil production data.

5. Drought threatens Panama Canal shipping.

6. International crude oil erased all gains since OPEC+ unexpected voluntary production cuts.

7. UK regulation opposes Microsoft's $69 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard to protect innovation and optionality in cloud gaming. Microsoft, for its part, intends to appeal this.

Geopolitical Situation

Energy Situation：

1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: We are not regulating oil prices through OPEC+. The government is discussing changes in subsidies to refineries, and this reform will soon be submitted to the Russian State Duma.

2. Russian media: Russian State Statistics Service stopped publishing oil production data.

Food Situation：

1. Hungary will extend the ban on Ukrainian grain imports until the end of the year, the Hungarian minister said.

2. Russian UN representative in Geneva: No substantial progress in resolving the issue of the Black Sea food agreement proposed by Russia, and no decision has been made on whether to extend the food agreement after May 18.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Unexpectedly strong tax receipts this week make it unlikely that the U.S. will hit the debt ceiling in early June and more likely in late July.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

【Societe Generale: U.S. tax revenue drop in April will bring forward debt deadline】

April 21, Societe Generale Subadra Rajappa and other strategists said in a report that the U.S. Treasury is more likely to run out of its borrowing capacity sometime in June if tax revenues for the rest of April are around 50% of 2022 levels. Societe Generale still expects the U.S. Treasury to run out of its borrowing capacity between late July and early August, but the forecast will face uncertainty if tax revenues are much lower than currently expected. Societe Generale said the forecast is based on assumptions about tax revenues for the remainder of April and the size of borrowing available under the extraordinary measures.

03

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank will increase its transfer fees in Japan from October 2.