Mai hui MHmarkets: July 4, 2023-MHM European Perspective

Market Overview

Spot gold was narrowly oscillating during the Asian session on Tuesday (July 4) and is currently trading at $1,923.82 per ounce. Because it coincides with the U.S. Independence Day holiday, market trading is relatively light. In addition, although the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI data out on Monday performed poorly, the market still generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in July, and U.S. bond yields maintain strength, making the bulls wary.

According to CME's Fedwatch tool, investors believe there is an 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in July, bringing rates to 5.25%-5.50%, after which rates will not be cut until after March 2024.

U.S. crude oil is in a narrow range and currently trading near $69.30 per barrel after oil prices rebounded nearly 2% from a nearly two-week low overnight as reports showed U.S. crude inventories fell for a second straight week and by a larger-than-expected margin. However, bulls remain wary as further interest rate hikes by central banks could dampen economic growth and global fuel demand, while Chinese economic data underperformed.

U.S. crude oil is narrowly oscillating and currently trading near $70.15 per barrel. Although recession fears are weighing on oil prices, the Saudi production cut plan is still providing confidence to the bulls and oil prices are holding firm above the 5-day SMA, with the short term still biased towards the long side.

Saudi Arabia said Monday it will extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day until August, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported. Russia will also reduce oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said.

These cuts are equivalent to 1.5 percent of global supply, bringing the total production cuts pledged by OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, to 5.16 million barrels per day.

In addition, the market expects U.S. crude oil inventories to fall by about 1.8 million barrels in the week ending June 30, which was the third consecutive weekly decline. Due to the Independence Day holiday, API industry inventory data will be delayed by one day this week until early Thursday morning BST, and official inventory data will be released on Thursday evening BST.

The crude oil market will be closed early on Tuesday (July 4), the anniversary of the U.S. Independence Day, which may limit the trading space. The 8th OPEC International Symposium takes place on July 5-6, and investors will mainly be watching for changes in market expectations.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on July 4, Beijing time.

Intraday Oscillation Range:   1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951

Overall Oscillation Range:   1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100

In   the subsequent period of spot gold, 1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951 can be   operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above   strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 4. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation   Range: 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9

Overall Oscillation   Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3

In   the subsequent period of spot silver, 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9 can be operated as   the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up   and kill down outside the range!

Note:   The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 4. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday   Oscillation Range: 67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1

Overall   Oscillation Range:   62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1

In   the subsequent period of crude oil, 67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1   can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the   range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note:   The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 4. This policy is a daytime   policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range:   1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157

Overall Oscillation Range:   1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303

In   the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157 can be   operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range,   chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above   strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 4. This policy is a daytime policy.   Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Intraday Oscillation Range:   1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200

Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600

In   the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200 can   be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the   range, chase up and kill down outside the range!

Note: The above   strategy was updated at 15:00 on July 4. This policy is a daytime policy.   Please pay attention to the policy release time.