Mai hui MHmarkets: August 1, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆09:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

☆10:00 CNY National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Special Press Conference

The special press conference will introduce information about several recent initiatives to promote the development of the private economy.

☆12:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

Currently, the market believes it will continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4.35%.

☆21:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL)

The market expects it to record 49, which is unchanged from the previous value.

☆22:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

The market is expected to record 46.8, a recovery from the previous value of 46, but still below the line of honor.

☆22:00 USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN)

It is expected to record 9.62 million, which is down from the previous value.

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Monday, spot gold fell first and then rose, the plate nearly guarded the 1950 mark, and in the U.S. pre-market hours to open up, the day once rose to $1972.50 of the day's highs, and ultimately closed up 0.3% at $1,965.16 per ounce, and hit four months to the best monthly performance; spot silver with the gold in the U.S. pre-market to pull up, the plate was up more than 2%, and ultimately closed up 1.7%, at $24.76 per ounce.

The USDX had a tangled day, eventually closing up 0.16% at 101.86. But on a monthly basis, the USDX closed lower for the second consecutive month. U.S. bond yields rose and then fell, the two-year U.S. bond yield fell to an intraday low of 4.843% during the session, and finally closed at 4.885%; 10-year U.S. bond yields were blocked at the 4% mark, and finally closed at 3.967%.

Perhaps aided by signs of tightening global supply and growing demand for the rest of the year, crude oil hit a three-month high on Monday and posted its biggest monthly gain since January 2022.WTI crude rose sharply during the day and stood above $81, ending up 1.35% at $81.72 per barrel, while Brent crude stood above $85, closing up 0.96% at $85.21 per barrel.

U.S. stocks on the last trading day of July, the three major stock indexes were narrowly oscillating throughout the day, with the Dow closing up 0.28%, the Nasdaq closing up 0.21%, and the S&P 500 up 0.15%. New energy vehicle plate mixed, Xiaopeng Automobile closed down more than 10%, Nikola and Faraday Future closed up more than 17%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 index in July accumulated more than 3%, which are realized monthly 5 consecutive gains.

Major European stock indices were mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 closing down 0.14%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.07% and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 0.11%.

Market Focus

1. A U.S. judge disagreed with a ruling that Ripple is not a security.

2. The U.S. Treasury raised its quarterly borrowing estimate to $1 trillion.

3. Argentina will pay off maturing debt to the International Monetary Fund.

4. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 accumulated gains of more than 3% in July, which was the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

5. Federal Reserve survey: U.S. banking sector tightened credit standards further in the second quarter.

6. South Korea's “world's first room-temperature superconductor” team of scientists: room-temperature superconductor LK-99 may be replicated within a month.

7. Coinbase CEO said the SEC had asked Coinbase to stop all trading except for Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. The mayor of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv said three missiles hit a densely populated area, destroying a two-story dormitory building.

2. Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Chechnya, Russia: Chechen fighters launch pre-emptive strikes on Ukrainian positions near Kharkiv.

3. General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Over the past day, the Russians have lost 490 soldiers, six tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 21 artillery systems and six tactical drones, among other equipment.

4. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian forces hit the headquarters of Ukraine's 35th Marine Brigade. In the Donetsk region, Russian forces hit the ammunition depot of Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade. Russian forces also shot down a Ukrainian air force Su-25 warplane in the Donetsk region.

Food Situation

1. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: 180,000 tons of food crops have been destroyed after nine days of Russian attacks.

2. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine: Ukraine and Croatia have agreed on the possibility of using Croatian ports for the export of Ukrainian grain.

3. According to RIA News agency: A source in Turkey said that there are hopes for Russia's return to the “food deal” but that predictions should not be made without Western guarantees to remove obstacles to Russian agricultural exports, which Ankara is seeking from Western partners.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

 【Goldman Sachs：Long and short hedge funds tumbled in July, and the de-risk phase may be nearing an end】

Aug 1 - Global long-short hedge funds were forced to unwind bearish bets that weighed on stock market performance for much of July, according to a Goldman Sachs report released on Monday. Long-short hedge funds are on track to post their worst monthly Alpha performance since May 2022. As of July 28, long-short hedge funds posted nine consecutive days of negative Alpha returns, the longest streak since January 2017, according to Goldman Sachs. “This has been driven primarily by the sharp drop in short Alpha, but we have also seen a marked deterioration in the performance of the bulls over the past week.” In general, different hedge fund strategies were forced to unwind positions to avoid further rapid losses as markets rallied in July, the bank said. It said July was shaping up to be one of the most active de-exposure months for hedge funds in recent years and that “all things considered, we believe signs of capitulation are starting to emerge and we may be approaching the final phase of the current de-exposure.”

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE: The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and while it may be too early to provide firm guidance for a further hike in September, the ECB is expected to raise rates one last time in September as upside risks to inflation remain.

03

MUFG

【MUFG：The BOJ acted stealthfully and waited to see what would happen】

July 28 - By raising the ceiling for its fixed-rate operations to 1%, the BOJ effectively widened the target range for the 10-year government bond yield, making it easier for the central bank to steer the yield target flexibly, said MUFG senior market economist Naomi Muguruma. In this sense, the central bank acted stealthily. The BOJ will likely wait to see how these measures prove effective for the time being. The BOJ will not determine the strength of wage growth and price trends until at least next spring's labor offensive gives clues on wages.