MHMarkets：September 05, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆ 09:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI (AUG)

☆ 12:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision

☆ 17:00 EUR PPI MoM (JUL)

☆ 22:00 USD Factory Orders MoM (JUL)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

In light trading on Monday, the dollar index rose as high as 104.27 in Asia before choppy downward to close down 0.11% at 104.13.

U.S. bonds are closed for Labor Day.

Spot gold continued to rise in Asian trading, rising as high as $1946.32 during the day, before falling $10 to $1936.4 and closing down 0.07% at $1938.45 an ounce. Spot silver lost the $24 mark and settled down 0.82% at $23.98 an ounce.

After rallying for four straight sessions on supply concerns, crude oil extended its intraday rally on Monday, with WTI crude rising as high as $86.09 a barrel, continuing to hit its highest level since November. Has slipped back a bit, closed down 0.05%, to $85.94 a barrel. Brent crude rose as high as $89.18 a barrel, its highest since December, before closing up 0.14% at $88.95. Due to Labor Day, trading in precious metals and U.S. crude oil contracts on CME closed early at 02:30 Beijing time, while Brent crude oil futures contracts on ICE closed early at 01:30 Beijing time.

U.S. stocks are closed for Labor Day.

Major European stock indexes fell almost across the board, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 0.12%, the U.K. 's FTSE 100 down 0.17% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.08%.

Market Focus

1. The Australian LNG union is threatening an all-day strike from September 14.

2. Goldman Sachs: No longer expects Saudi Arabia to partially reverse its voluntary 1 million b/d cuts.

3. The IAEA report said talks with Iran over the sensitive issue of not making progress, highly enriched uranium inventory increased by 60%.

4. ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her latest speech, still gave no hints on how the ECB might act next week, focusing instead on the challenge of communicating in uncertain times.

5. Putin: Open to talks on Black Sea food deal; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Agreement on food deal will be reached soon; A palace spokesman said no documents were expected to be signed after the Putin-Erdogan meeting.   

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation:

1. Ukraine shot down 23 of 32 Russian drones during the overnight period.

2. Odessa Governor, Ukraine: Russian drone strikes in Ukraine's Danube port have damaged warehouses, production buildings, and other infrastructure.

3. Russian Defense Ministry: Destroyed four Ukrainian army high-speed boats in the Black Sea.

4. Ukraine, said the Russian drone crashed in the territory of Romania and explosion. Romania's defence ministry said it “categorically denies” reports that a Russian drone had detonated on Romanian territory. Russian strikes were monitored in real time, and their means of attack never posed a direct military threat to Romanian territory.

5. Governor of the Bryansk Region, Russia: The Russian side foiled an attempt by a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage team to enter the region from the Shevsk region. A drone attack on the infrastructure of the Klinzovskaya power plant was foiled.

6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits frontline troops in the Donetsk region.

Energy Situation:

1. Russia's sea-based diesel exports rose 2% month-on-month in August as production held up, according to traders and LSE data.

2. U.S. Treasury official: Price caps effectively limit Russian revenues and oil supplies.

3. Vladimir Putin: Russia has supplied more than 10 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey so far this year. Hope to end as soon as possible talks about Turkey's natural gas hub, is with the progress in the field of energy.

FoodSituation:

Grain traders association VGA: 1. Ukraine to Ukraine in 2023 grains and oilseeds production forecast of 3.7 million tons, 80.5 million tons.

2. Vladimir Putin: We will be ready to renew the food agreement once all the agreements are fulfilled. Russia plans to continue exporting grain and fertilizer. Is a free to Africa's food supply agreement and supply will begin in the next two to three weeks.

3. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Progress on the food deal is important for African countries. The statement on the food corridor after the meeting will be very important.

4. According to interfax news agency: the Russian defense minister sergei shoigu says Ukraine's maritime unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) is one of the reasons why Russia out of grain agreement.  

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs：Goldman Sachssaid it no longer expects Saudi Arabia to roll back some of its voluntary cuts

On September 5, Goldman sachs said, still think Opec + goals may be more aggressive, the price of a 12 months brent crude forecast on the future key mildly bullish risk $93 a barrel. Saudi Arabia is no longer expected to announce this week a partial reversal of its planned 1 million barrels a day cut for October.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE：Inflation remains high, and the ECB may raise interest rates faster than expected

Sep 1 - The ECB is likely to focus on its price stability mandate at its meeting on Sept. 14, meaning a higher rate hike could be more likely than markets currently expect, Societe Generale rates strategists said in a note. “Given data dependency and uncertainty, it may be difficult for markets to fully anticipate a rate hike,” they said, noting that the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain. “However, the ECB should be pragmatic and focus on its price stability mandate, which remains at risk due to elevated measures of underlying inflation, falling real interest rates and inflation risks skewed to the upside.”

03

MUFG

【MUFG：The dollar may weaken on shutdown fears】

Sep 1 - The dollar could weaken at the end of September if speculation that the U.S. government could shut down again in October is confirmed, MUFJ research director Derek Halpenny said in a note. The lack of precise details on government funding in the US has raised concerns about a potential government shutdown as the new fiscal year approaches on October 1. He said: “seek spending cuts the republicans are likely to have more influence, which may make the government into the lockout period in October.” The longest shutdown of 2018 had a negative impact on the dollar.