MHMarkets：September 15, 2023 - Fundamental Reminder

☆At 17:45, ECB President Christine Lagarde will attend and speak at the Eurogroup meeting.

☆17:45 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (SEP) & USD Import Prices MoM (AUG)

☆21:15 USD Industrial Production MoM (AUG)

☆22:00 USD 1 Year Inflation Expectation (SEP) & USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (SEP)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Thursday, the dollar index rose sharply in pre-market trading on the back of strong U.S. data, breaking through the 105 mark and reaching an intraday high of 105.43 before closing up 0.56% at 105.34. In U.S. Treasury yields, the two-year yield climbed back above the 5% mark to close at 5.013%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 4.298% before closing at 4.286%.

Spot gold was stuck near a three-week low as the dollar and Treasury yields rose. It fell to an intraday low of 1,901.04 before recovering some losses and turning positive to end up 0.14% at $1,910.75 an ounce. Spot silver settled down 0.82% at $22.64 an ounce.

Crude oil rose more than 2% and hit new highs for the year. WTI crude broke through $90 and briefly rose to an intraday high of $90.75 before closing up 2.06% at $90.66 a barrel, its highest since November. Brent crude settled up 2.13% at $94.10 a barrel, its highest since November 2022.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.96%, the Nasdaq up 0.81% and the S&P 500 up 0.84%. Arm closed up 24% on its first day of trading at $63.5, giving it a market value of more than $65 billion. Big tech stocks rose broadly, with Tesla up 1.75%, Meta Platforms up more than 2% and Google up more than 1%. AMC Theaters opened higher and closed down more than 1%.

European stocks rebounded, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.97%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 1.95% and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 1.33%.

Market Focus

1. The ECB raised all three interest rates by 25 basis points, its 10th consecutive increase. The statement noted that interest rates may have peaked.

2. With no progress in wage talks, the president of the United Automobile Association will announce the strike plan live at 10 am Beijing time on the 15th.

3. Workers at Chevron's liquefied natural gas plant in Australia have escalated their strike with a 24-hour rotating shutdown.

4. The monthly rate of producer prices rose 0.7% in August, the biggest increase in more than a year, led by a 20% jump in gasoline prices.

5. The US oil exceeded $90 / BBL and the oil station reached $93 / BBL, both continuing to hit new highs since November 2022.

6. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be shut down in a month because of funding problems.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. The Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine has revised the statement that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have liberated the settlement of Andrivka on the Bakmutt front, saying that heavy and intense fighting is continuing.

2. Russian Defense Ministry: Destroyed 11 drones in Crimea early Thursday morning.

3. Ukrainian intelligence: Ukraine destroyed Russian air defense systems near Ibatoria, Crimea, in overnight drone and missile strikes.

4. Ukraine has yet to respond to what Russia said was an attempt by Ukrainian forces to attack the hovercraft Samfeng, which is part of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs：Upside trading opportunities are expected through the end of the year, maintaining the Chinese equity overweight.

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

SOCIETE GENERALE：Is expected to leave rates unchanged; It is not expected to abandon its hawkish tilt until it is fully clear that the 2% target can be met in time, with another rate hike in December or more quantitative easing early next year.

03

MUFG

【MUFG：Markets are betting the Fed will focus on falling core inflation. The Dollar falls】

September 14 - US inflation data released on Wednesday, which showed headline inflation rate rising slightly more than expected year-on-year to 3.7%, had limited impact on the dollar, which is slightly lower for now, MUFG FX analyst Lee Hardman said. He said markets expect the Fed to focus on the slowing trend in core inflation, which fell in August to 4.3% from 4.7% on an annual basis, although the monthly increase was slightly higher. Market participants believe the Fed will place more weight on the slowing trend in core inflation when setting policy and remain alert to upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices.