MHMarkets：September 19, 2023--Fundamental Reminder

☆ Today OECD Economic Outlook Report

☆ 09:30 AUD RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (SEP)

☆ 17:00 EUR Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) & EUR Inflation Rate MoM Final (AUG)

☆ 20:30 USD Housing Starts (AUG) & USD Building Permits (AUG)

Market Overview

Review of Global Market Trend

On Monday, the U.S. dollar index retreated from nearly six-month highs, but still ran above the $105 mark, and eventually closed down 0.24% at 105.07. In terms of U.S. bond yields, two-year U.S. bond yields opened abruptly soaring to a high of 5.490%, and then retraced all of its gains back down to near 5%, and ultimately closed up at 5.056%; 10-year U.S. bond yields narrowly avoided the top of 4.3%, and finally closed at 4.303%.

Spot gold successfully stood on the $1,930 mark during the U.S. trading session, once rose to $1,934.31 intraday highs, and then retracted some of the gains, and ultimately closed up 0.52% at $1,933.86 per ounce. Spot silver plate once nearly guarded the $23 mark, and finally closed up 0.95% at $23.25 per ounce.

Crude oil shook to the upside, WTI crude oil rose more than 1% during the day, rose to an intraday high of $92.38 during the day, and eventually closed up 1.13% at $92.20 per barrel; Brent crude oil was close to $95 during the day, and eventually closed up 0.33% at $94.51 per barrel.

The three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly shaky throughout the day, closing nearly flat. The Nasdaq China Gold Dragon Index closed down 0.58%. Tesla closed down 3.3%, Arm continued to pull back, closing down over 4.5%, and Apple rose 1.7%.

European stocks closed lower across the board, with Germany's DAX 30 closing down 1.05%, Britain's FTSE 100 closing down 0.76% and Europe's Stoxx 50 closing down 1.14%.

Market Focus

1. Musk considers charging all Twitter users.

2. Ukraine's deputy economy minister: lifting export restrictions on sugar.

3. The U.S. auto union is reported to lower the demand for pay raises to 36%.

4. Musk denied the Wall Street Journal's report about “Tesla to build a factory in Saudi Arabia”.

5. The U.S. Treasury Department data show that China reduced its holdings of U.S. debt by $13.6 billion in July, the fourth consecutive monthly reduction.

6. The European Union will debate the 12th round of sanctions against Russia; new sanctions could be introduced as early as October.

7. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: it is too early to predict the impact of the auto strike on the economy, the labor market is cooling, but there are no large-scale layoffs, there is no sign that the economy is in recession, and will pay close attention to the price of oil and oil production.

Geopolitical Situation

Conflict Situation

1. The Russian Ministry of Defense: Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have struck facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces where Storm Shadow missiles and depleted uranium munitions are stored. They repelled the Ukrainian offensive in the direction of Hongriman and Donetsk, and also struck a number of Ukrainian command and garrison locations in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. In addition, Russian air defenses intercepted 27 drones and five Hymas rockets from the Ukrainian side, and 24 drones were launched overnight into the Odessa and Nikolaev regions of Ukraine.

2. General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Over the past 24 hours, more than 30 battles have been fought in front-line areas. The Ukrainian air force, rocket and artillery units have struck Russian personnel and equipment concentration areas, air defense missile systems, ammunition depots and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force released a message the same day saying that the Ukrainian air defense system destroyed 18 of the 24 Russian suicide drones and 17 Russian missiles.

3. According to RIA Novosti: The Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russia is holding exercises to protect the Arctic sea lanes.

4. According to the Russian news agency RIA Novosti, Russia scrambled MiG-31 fighters to intercept United States aircraft over the Barents Sea.

Institutional Perspective

01

Goldman Sachs

【Goldman Sachs strategists raised their outlook for Japanese stocks, expecting the yen to remain stable】

September 18 -- Goldman Sachs strategists raised their forecasts for Japan's stock market to reflect updated expectations that the yen may not strengthen significantly in the coming months. Given that Japan's economy is expected to remain relatively robust, Goldman raised its earnings-per-share growth forecast for Japan's TSE index for the fiscal year that began April 1 to 12%, with the following two years expected to be 8% and 7%, respectively, given that Japan's economy is expected to remain relatively robust, strategists Kazunori Tatebe and Bruce Kirk said. They said the change would be driven by the dollar reaching 145 against the yen, USD/JPY, over the three years, compared with the previous view that the yen would appreciate over that period. “In addition to Japan's solid fundamentals relative to overseas markets, two key domestic structural changes, inflation and governance reform, will continue to lift markets throughout 2023.”

02

SOCIETE GENERALE

Co-Head of Corporate and Investment Banking at Societe Generale: The trading environment is expected to return to normal in the near future.

03

MUFG

【MUFG: Dollar falls on market bets Fed will focus on falling core inflation】

September 14 -- U.S. inflation data released Wednesday showed a slightly higher-than-expected year-on-year rise in headline CPI to 3.7%, but the impact on the dollar was limited and the greenback is now slightly lower, said Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange analyst at MUFG. He said the market expects the Fed to focus on the trend of slowing core inflation. While the monthly gain was slightly higher, the annual rate of August core inflation fell to 4.3% from 4.7%. Market participants believe that the Fed will pay more attention to the slowing trend in core inflation when setting policy and continue to be vigilant about the upside risks to inflation from rising energy prices.