Abstract:At the end of the Asian market on Tuesday (November 21), according to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range in December is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.2%.
At the end of the Asian market on Tuesday (November 21), according to CME's “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range in December is 99.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.2%. The Fed's Barkin stated that this is not a great time to provide forward guidance on interest rates. In terms of FOMC's interest rate policy actions, it is more focused on US inflation. Overall, there has been a welcome decline in core inflation data. Maintaining higher policy interest rates for a longer period of time will depend on changes in the US economic situation. The goal of FOMC remains to achieve full employment and price stability, with a focus on reducing the inflation target of 2% in the US. The US dollar index continued to decline yesterday, closing near the intraday low. At the opening of the Asian market today, the US dollar index continued to decline, temporarily hindered near 103.18 below, and the current price is around 103.34. Gold has continued to rise in recent times due to expectations of the Fed's policies. Yesterday, the price fell first and then rose, and closed above the intraday median. At the opening of the Asian market today, gold had strong upward momentum, with the current price around 1990.65. According to data from CME, the positions of oil options market traders indicate that the likelihood of OPEC+ deciding to further reduce production at the upcoming meeting is over 53%, while the likelihood of maintaining the existing production reduction plan is about 40%. OPEC leader Saudi Arabia will extend the agreement to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day until early next year, helping to support the plummeting crude oil prices earlier this month. Prior to the OPEC meeting on November 26, speculation will remain widespread about whether Saudi Arabia and its allies will choose to further reduce production. Crude oil has recently experienced a significant decline in prices due to data from oil producing countries. Recently, the price has rebounded, breaking above the previous day's high yesterday and ultimately closing near the intraday high. US crude oil fell at the opening of the Asian market today, with the current price around 77.26. EURUSD continued to rise yesterday and broke through multiple resistance levels continuously, ultimately closing near the intraday high. Today, when the Asian market opened, EURUSD continued to rise, with a current price around 1.0954. USDJPY has been affected by fundamental expectations recently, and its price has continued to plummet. Yesterday, it broke through multiple support levels and ultimately closed near the intraday low. At the opening of the Asian market today, USDJPY continued its previous trend and continued to decline, with the current price around 147.72.
MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on November 21, Beijing time.
Gold XAUUSD· | |
Resistance | 1993.47 – 2004 – 2008.29 |
Support | 1985.14 – 1976.73 – 1965.61 |
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of gold. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of gold has been around 1993.47-2004-2008.29, and the downward support has been around 1985.14-1976.73-1965.61. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 21. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. |
Crude Oil USOUSD· | |
Resistance | 78.69 – 79.64 – 81.99 |
Support | 76.21 – 73.64 – 72.37 |
The above chart shows the 30 minute chart of US crude oil. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of US crude oil is around 78.69-79.64-81.99, and the downward support is around 76.21-73.64-72.37. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 21. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. |
EURUSD· | |
Resistance | 1.0960 - 1.0984 - 1.1006 |
Support | 1.0935 - 1.0912 - 1.0897 |
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of EURUSD. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of EURUSD is around 1.0960-1.0984-1.1006, and the downward support is around 1.0935-1.0912-1.0897. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 21. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. |
GBPUSD· | |
Resistance | 1.2549 – 1.2589 – 1.2629 |
Support | 1.2493 - 1.2461 – 1.2404 |
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of GBPUSD. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of GBPUSD is around 1.2549-1.2589-1.2629, and the downward support is around 1.2493-1.2461-1.2404. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on November 21. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. |
Fed Governor Christopher Waller's recent comments have highlighted a cautious stance towards adjusting interest rates, marking a significant moment for the financial markets.
In the forex market, stability was the theme for the U.S. dollar index, holding firm at 104.30. Minor fluctuations were observed across major currency pairs: the Euro slightly weakened against the dollar, closing at 1.0827
In the latest market wrap focusing on the foreign exchange sector, the U.S. dollar index showed minimal movement, holding at 104.31.
On Tuesday, due to February's US durable goods orders growth exceeding expectations and an optimistic economic growth outlook for the first quarter in the US, the US dollar index initially fell but then rose, briefly touching below the 104 mark before recovering during the US trading session, closing up 0.07% at 104.29.