MHMarkets：Barclays predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates four times next year, with a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points.

MH Markets | 2023-12-05 17:35

Abstract：At the end of the Asian market on Tuesday (December 5), as the Fed's interest rate hike cycle approached its end, major investment banks made predictions about the Fed's interest rate cut path.

At the end of the Asian market on Tuesday (December 5), as the Fed's interest rate hike cycle approached its end, major investment banks made predictions about the Fed's interest rate cut path. Barclays predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates four times next year, with a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points. After receiving support below yesterday, the US dollar index accelerated its rise during the US session and closed near the intraday high. At the opening of the Asian market today, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly and fell, with the current price around 103.602. Based on market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in March next year, investors are more optimistic about the appreciation potential of gold in the future. Yesterday, gold surged at the opening, but later in the European and American period, the trend of the US dollar and US bonds put pressure on gold, ultimately plummeting by $120 and closing near the intraday low. At the opening of the Asian market today, gold fluctuated slightly, with the current price around 2032.29. US crude oil fluctuated overall yesterday, with investors questioning whether the latest OPEC+production reduction agreement can be implemented as planned; On the other hand, the number of active drilling platforms in the US has increased month on month, and crude oil production is at a historical high, which has also raised concerns among investors about the pressure of excessive supply. At the opening of the Asian market today, US crude oil fluctuated slightly, with a current price around 73.16. European Central Bank Executive Director Schnabel stated today that further interest rate hikes are “unlikely” after the release of November inflation data. The current restrictive level of interest rates is sufficient, increasing confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target by 2025.After facing resistance above, EURUSD experienced a rapid decline in the market and continuously broke through multiple support levels, ultimately closing near the intraday low. At the opening of the Asian market today, EURUSD saw a slight increase, with a current price around 1.0835. Earlier today, Japan announced a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index (CPI) for November in the Tokyo region, which slowed down from the previous month. This indicates that Japan's cost driven price pressure has eased. The data shows that the “core core” CPI, excluding fresh food and energy prices, increased by 3.6% year-on-year in November and 3.8% in October. The Bank of Japan closely monitors the index as an indicator of broader price trends. USDJPY fell at the opening of the Asian market today, with a current price around 146.79.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on December 5, Beijing time.

Gold XAUUSD·
Resistance	2076.42 – 2090.39 – 2143.55
Support	2020.19 – 2011.15 – 2005.55
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of gold. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of gold has been around 2076.42-2090.39-2143.55, and the downward support has been around 2020.19-2011.15-2005.55. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 5. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Crude Oil USOUSD·
Resistance	74.81 – 76.76 – 79.61
Support	72.75 – 72.37 – 71.21
The above chart shows the 30 minute chart of US crude oil. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of US crude oil is around 74.81-76.76-79.61, and the downward support is around 72.75-72.37-71.21. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 5. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

EURUSD·
Resistance	1.0880 - 1.0913 - 1.0950
Support	1.0815 - 1.0794 - 1.0764
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of EURUSD. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of EURUSD is around 1.0880-1.0913-1.0950, and the downward support is around 1.0815-1.0794-1.0764. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 5. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

GBPUSD·
Resistance	1.2687 – 1.2724 – 1.2734
Support	1.2604 - 1.2589 – 1.2559
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of GBPUSD. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of GBPUSD is around 1.2687-1.2724-1.2734, and the downward support is around 1.2604-1.2589-1.2559. The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and resistance. Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 5. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

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