MHMarkets：

December 11, 2023-MHM European Perspective

Non-farm payrolls are sharply favorable, and the Fed's path to rate cuts buried hidden dangers.

At the end of the Asian market on Monday (December 11), the employment situation report released by the US Department of Labor last Friday evening showed that the US non-farm payrolls was stronger than market expectations in November, and the unemployment rate also decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Specific data shows that the US non-farm payrolls increased by 199,000 people after the November quarterly adjustment, which was stronger than the market expectation of 180,000 people. This indicates that the labor market remains strong as the Fed attempts to slow down economic growth. The US November unemployment rate recorded 3.7%, which was the lowest level in nearly four months, and was a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 3.9% in October. After the data was released, the US dollar index experienced intense fluctuations in the short term, and until Friday's close, the US dollar index had not yet formed an effective market trend. At the opening of the Asian market today, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, with a current price around 104.05. Gold fell sharply in the market on Friday due to the impact of US non-farm payrolls data, and showed a structural downward trend. It closed near the intraday low on Friday. At the opening of the Asian market today, gold prices continued to decline, with the current price around 1997.93. US crude oil has been continuously declining in the market recently due to the impact of market supply fundamentals. If the fundamentals do not change, it is difficult for crude oil to change its current trend. Last Friday, US crude oil fluctuated upwards overall for the day, but was consistently included in last Wednesday and did not form a structural upward trend, ultimately closing near the intraday high. At the opening of the Asian market today, US crude oil continued to rise slightly, with a current price around 71.91.EURUSD experienced intense fluctuations during the US market period last Friday due to the impact of US non-farm data. However, in response to last Friday's non-farm data, the market has not shown a structural trend. EURUSD closed below the intraday median on Friday. At the opening of the Asian market today, EURUSD saw a slight increase and is currently priced around 10.768. Recently, USDJPY has experienced several major declines in the market due to the influence of the Bank of Japan, reaching a low of around 141.61. Last Friday, USDJPY was affected by the US non-farm payrolls data during the US trading session, and the market fluctuated violently. Before Friday's close, it showed an overall upward trend. At the opening of the Asian market today, USDJPY continued to rise, with a current price around 145.63.

MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on December 11, Beijing time.

Gold XAUUSD·
Resistance	2015.09 – 2032.71 – 2039.66
Support	1994.64 – 1988.93 – 1984.19
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of   gold. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of gold has been   around 2015.09-2032.71-2039.66, and the downward support has been around 1994.64-1988.93-1984.19.   The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower   support and resistance.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December   11. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy   release time.

Crude Oil USOUSD·
Resistance	72.73 – 74.24 – 74.81
Support	70.41 – 69 – 67.11
The above chart shows the 30 minute chart of US   crude oil. The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of US crude oil   is around 72.73-74.24-74.81, and the downward support is around 70.41-69-67.11.   The market will be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower   support and resistance.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December   11. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy   release time.

EURUSD·
Resistance	1.0786 - 1.0817 - 1.0847
Support	1.0723 - 1.0701 - 1.0665
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of EURUSD.   The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of EURUSD is around 1.0786-1.0817-1.0847,   and the downward support is around 1.0723 - 1.0701 - 1.0665. The market will   be judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and   resistance.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December   11. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy   release time.

GBPUSD·
Resistance	1.2587 – 1.2613 – 1.2651
Support	1.2502 - 1.2487 – 1.2448
The above figure shows the 30 minute chart of GBPUSD.   The chart shows that the recent upward resistance of GBPUSD is around 1.2587-1.2613-1.2651,   and the downward support is around 1.2502-1.2487-1.2448. The market will be   judged by whether to break through the upper and lower support and   resistance.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December   11. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy   release time.