Abstract:Market Review | March 26, 2024
The US Dollar opened the trading week with a slight weakening trend, reflecting a cautious approach among traders. This sentiment is largely due to several factors, including the observance of Good Friday with many markets closed and anticipation surrounding key economic data releases. Among the most awaited data is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures, which are significant as they serve as the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Any surprises or deviations from expectations in these figures could have notable effects on the Fed's future monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting currency markets.
Throughout this week, market participants are closely monitoring speeches by influential Federal Reserve officials. These speeches provide valuable insights into the central bank's current thinking regarding economic conditions and potential policy adjustments. Traders and investors are particularly interested in understanding the Fed's stance on inflation and the possibility of future interest rate changes, which are crucial factors influencing market sentiment.
Currency Pair Update as of March 26:
AUD/USD: Despite the release of Westpacs Consumer Confidence Index, there hasn't been a significant impact on the AUD/USD movement. The price remained steady after the Aussie rebounded, although the US dollar opened slightly softer compared to last week.
NZD/USD: Trading flat around the 0.6000 mark, the pair is influenced by the USD Index (DXY) retracement. Traders are eagerly awaiting the US PCE data for potential insights into inflation trends.
EUR/USD: Gaining ground after finding support at 1.0803, the pair's movements are tied to Germanys GfK Consumer Confidence data release today. However, traders remain cautious due to upcoming critical economic data releases.
GBP/USD: Recovering from recent drops, the pair surpassed the 1.2600 level. Traders are now looking forward to UK GDP figures later this week for directional cues.
USD/CAD: Trading around 1.3585, the pair is balancing near the 1.3598 resistance and the 50-moving average on the 1-hourly chart. Positive oil prices are supporting the Canadian Dollar, with WTI trading above $81.60 a barrel.
USD/JPY: Holding around 151, the pair faces resistance near the 152.00 level, with traders cautious about potential intervention from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki commented on Tuesday regarding currency stability. He emphasized the importance of currencies aligning with economic fundamentals and stated that he would closely monitor foreign exchange movements with great urgency.
The Swiss Franc: Weakening slightly against the US Dollar, earlier gains stemmed from safe-haven demand amid EU investigations into tech giants. USD/CHF reached a target but retraced later in the day.
The Commodities:
WTI Crude Oil challenges $82.00 per barrel due to renewed supply concerns, while Gold and Silver make modest gains as the US Dollar softens, reflecting risk-on sentiment but with sideways price movements.
US Stocks:
Major indices like SP500, DOW, and NASDAQ start the week cautiously, with attention on forthcoming US economic data releases shaping investor sentiment.
Overall, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic towards risk assets, with economic data releases, geopolitical factors, and central bank actions driving market dynamics across various asset classes. Investors are closely monitoring developments to adjust their strategies accordingly amid evolving market conditions throughout the week.
Here's today's scheduled economic news and reports:
Tuesday, March 26
TENTATIVE - EUR - German 10-y Bond Auction
08:00 GMT+3 - JPY - BOJ Core CPI y/y
10:00 GMT+3 - EUR - German GfK Consumer Climate
15:00 GMT+3 - CAD - Gov Council Member Rogers Speaks
15:30 GMT+3 - USD - Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- USD - Durable Goods Orders m/m
16:00 GMT+3 - USD - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
- USD - House Price Index (HPI)
17:00 GMT+3 - USD - CB Consumer Confidence
- USD - Richmond Manufacturing Index
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