Today's Economic News

The US dollar saw a slight decline at the end of last week after several weeks of gains, raising anticipation for the upcoming US inflation report. Although the dollar's performance wasn't stellar last week, there's hope it might rebound soon, particularly if the inflation report on Wednesday shows better-than-expected results. This potential improvement could suggest a setback in the efforts to reduce inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated that the Fed's plan remains unchanged, but some other Fed officials are less certain. They believe a wait-and-see approach might be more appropriate. If inflation continues to rise, the Fed might need to reconsider its plans, potentially delaying interest rate cuts and opting for smaller adjustments when they do occur.

Traders are advised to closely monitor the upcoming inflation report for potential market shifts. A positive report could bolster the US dollar, while a negative one might lead to a decline. However, significant deviations from expected figures would be necessary for these effects to materialize.

Now, let's examine the current state of the currency market:

AUD/USD: After flirting with the critical resistance at 0.6625, the Australian dollar retreated to test the support level at 0.6563. Buyers are on the lookout for signals to buy at this level, while bears anticipate a breach towards the next support level at 0.6482.

NZD/USD: Hovering between the 0.5978 - 0.6051 range, with bears waiting for an optimal entry point to continue the downtrend. However, upward movement cannot be ruled out, especially if the price breaches 0.6051.

EUR/USD: Initially declining but rebounding after finding support in the 1.0741 - 1.07761 zone, testing the 50-moving average. To sustain upward momentum, it must breach resistance at 1.0851 and 1.0923. On the downside, a drop towards 1.0840 is possible, with further decline targeting the major support level at 1.0708.

GBP/USD: Similar to the euro, the British pound started weak but recovered. It is currently testing the 1.2617 support level and faces challenges in establishing strong support. Upside potential exists if it holds, aiming for 1.2718 and 1.2798. Conversely, a failure could lead to a decline towards 1.2541, possibly as low as 1.2490.

USD/CAD: Taking advantage of the Canadian dollar's struggle, the US dollar breached the 1.3598 level and is eyeing the 1.3651 resistance. While bullish momentum may continue, bears are also looking to push the price lower as USD/CAD remains mostly sideways.

USD/JPY: Finding support at 150.86 after positive job figures, but largely staying within the 150.86 - 151.70 range. A breakthrough at 152.00 could signal a strong upward move, while breaching 150.86 support could indicate a downward trend. BoJ Governor Ueda's recent comments are yet to impact the markets.

USD/CHF: Awaiting an uptrend retracement, with price hovering above the 0.9026 level. This could indicate a pullback to the trendline in the form of consolidation. High-impact news events could provide clarity and establish a clear trading structure.

In the commodities market:

GOLD: Geopolitical tensions have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, although the market is significantly overbought. A cooldown period is likely unless tensions escalate further, with attention on retracement to key Fibonacci levels.

SILVER: After breaching the $26.00 resistance level and briefly retracing post-NFP release, silver reached multi-year highs. Despite overbought conditions signaled by the RSI, upward momentum persists. Resistance levels for XAG/USD are expected at $27.50 and $28.00, with a key resistance point from June 2021.

US Stocks:

The major US stock indices experienced a surge driven by robust job numbers and statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman. Employment data exceeded expectations, indicating sustained growth, while wages also showed improvement, although at a slower annual pace, raising doubts about potential rate cuts in June.

Despite Bowman's suggestion of a potential rate hike if inflation remains high, market sentiment remained positive. This contrasted with the previous day's decline triggered by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's hints at the Fed delaying rate cuts.

Despite these uncertainties, all major Wall Street indices ended the week on a positive note. Here are the key levels to monitor:

S&P 500: Currently trading between the $5,184.97 - $5,261.54 range. Bears are eyeing entry opportunities below the $5,184 mark, while bulls anticipate buying signals above as the market approaches this level.

Dow Jones: After rebounding from the $38,592 support level, bulls are poised to challenge the next resistance. A breach would reaffirm Dow Jones' bullish stance, while a failure would necessitate a breakout from the current support level.

NASDAQ: Is currently driving a bullish trend. However, as it maintains its upward momentum, it could encounter resistance around the $18,286.70 level. Conversely, in the event of a pullback, it may find support near $17,960.90. These levels serve as critical reference points, with investors closely observing them to gauge potential shifts in market sentiment.

In summary, while major economic news can prompt market movements, understanding the broader market structure is crucial for effective trading. Traders should remain vigilant and wait for significant price levels to be reached before making substantial moves.

Here's today's scheduled economic news and reports:

Monday, April 8:

08:00 GMT+3 - JPY - Economy Watchers Sentiment

08:45 GMT+3 - CHF - Unemployment Rate          

09:00 GMT+3 - EUR - German Industrial Production m/m

           - EUR - German Trade Balance

11:30 GMT+3 - EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence

18:15 GMT+3 - CHF - SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

18:30 GMT+3 - GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks